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江波龙(301308):看好周期向上带动公司业绩快速增长
HTSC· 2025-11-04 04:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 311.80 [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience rapid growth driven by an upward cycle in the storage market, with significant contributions from enterprise-level storage products and overseas business expansion [1][4]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached RMB 6.539 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 54.60% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.09%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 698 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 1994.42% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 318.94% [1][2]. - The report highlights strong growth in the company's Lexar brand and Zilia's overseas business, as well as improvements in gross margin due to rising storage prices and optimized product structure [2][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - The company achieved a record high revenue of RMB 6.539 billion in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 18.92%, up 4.10 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The growth was attributed to successful expansion in enterprise-level storage products and strong performance in overseas markets [1][2]. Q4 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates further increases in storage prices, with predictions of a 10% rise in eSSD and 5%-10% in Mobile NAND prices [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures by domestic internet companies and a growing recognition of its enterprise-level storage products [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to RMB 24.194 billion, RMB 30.031 billion, and RMB 34.573 billion, respectively [4][11]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 1.511 billion, RMB 2.930 billion, and RMB 2.721 billion, reflecting significant increases compared to previous estimates [4][11].
江波龙(301308):海外、企业级存储业务同比高增
HTSC· 2025-04-29 07:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 110.00 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 4.41% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, a significant year-over-year decline of 139.52% [1][2]. - The strong growth in overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses has been a key driver for the company's performance, despite a slow recovery in demand for consumer electronics [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the prices of DRAM and NAND products will bottom out in Q2 2025, with potential price rebounds for certain product lines as inventory levels normalize [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company's overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses saw significant growth, with Lexar brand revenue increasing by 20.73% year-over-year and Zilia's revenue growing by 45.08% year-over-year. The enterprise storage product combination "eSSD+RDIMM" achieved over 200% year-over-year revenue growth [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.35%, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 14.04 percentage points, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. 2025 Outlook - The report highlights that major manufacturers like Micron have announced price increases starting in Q2, indicating a potential rebound in consumer storage prices. The company has successfully mass-produced its self-developed UFS 4.1 controller chip, which will facilitate the introduction of new UFS products to mobile brand customers [3]. - The integration of Zilia with Yuan Cheng Suzhou has improved operational efficiency, allowing the company to expand its overseas market presence [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.756 billion RMB, 26.700 billion RMB, and 29.568 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 30.30%, 17.33%, and 10.74% [6][18]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 668.52 million RMB in 2025, with a significant recovery from previous losses [6][18].