超配（维持） AI 驱动景气向上，受益供给格局改善 深 度 存储模组行业专题报告 2025 年 8 月 26 日 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：Wind，东莞证券研究所 报 告 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投资要点： 推荐 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 分析师：陈伟光 SAC 执业证书编号： 存储器是数字信息的重要载体，第三方模组厂聚焦广泛细分市场。 存储器是IT基础设施三大核心板块之一，市场规模占集成电路比重 约30%，是数字信息的重要载体。存储产业链从上至下分别为：上游 原厂、主控芯片、封装测试、存储模组与产品供应商。其中，存储 原厂掌握产业链核心技术，推动技术迭代与标准制定，通过规模效 应锁定下游大客户，保证产能的高效利用，由于行业门槛较高，市 场 ...

证券研究报告 江波龙 (301308 CH) 2Q25：存储周期向上，环比扭亏 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 半导体 1H25 公司实现营收 101.96 亿元（yoy：+12.80%），归母净利润 0.15 亿 元（yoy：-97.51%），扣非归母净利 0.32 亿元（yoy：-94.02%）。其 中，2Q25 实现营收 59.39 亿元（yoy：+29.51%，qoq：+39.53%），归 母净利润 1.67 亿元（yoy：-20.55%，qoq：+209.73%），扣非归母净润 2.34 亿元（yoy：+33.33%，qoq：+215.94%）。2Q25 公司营收创单季度 历史新高，主要受益于终端需求有所回暖，下游库存逐步回归健康水位， 同时，存储供需格局改善带动存储价格见底回升；毛利率环比改善至 14.82%（yoy：-7.83pct，qoq：+4.47pct），叠加费用管控显效，环比实 现扭亏为盈。存储周期向上，DRAM/NAND 三季度有望保持涨价趋势。公 司企业级存储、Lexar 及巴西 Zilia 等海外业务增长势头强劲，并积极推进 TCM 及 PTM 模式实现大客户突破，带动长 ...

DDR4今年报价逐季大幅上涨趋势，满手库存的存储模组厂也业绩大进补。法人预计，布局DDR4利基 型存储市场的威刚、钰创、创见、宇瞻等相关供应链，摆脱汇损效应后，下半年业绩可望逐季上升，赚 DDR4涨价财。 近年持续亏损的钰创也传出好消息，7月营收3.07亿元新台币，是近一年以来单月新高，较6月营收月增 22.4％。法人表示，钰创受惠于网通客户持续追加订单，使DDR4规格4Gb至16Gb的出货量都增加。 威刚在存储模组厂有相对指标性，今年第二季度单季每股净利已经达到2.75元新台币，是一年以来单季 新高，7月营收年增长39.5％至42.61亿元新台币，维持在单月40亿元新台币以上的高水准。法人推估， 威刚今年第三季度单季合并营收有望季增双位数水准，且先前打销存货持续回冲，获利将有望再度走 高。 DDR4先前传出16Gb规格报价一度高于新一代的同容量DDR5产品，让拥有库存的存储模组厂后续营运 看俏。这波DDR4价格强劲，仍使用DDR4的终端产品包括网通、显示器、AI物联网等相关装置，更改 设计时间需要至少一年，代表DDR4涨价商机可旺到年底。 搭上涨价潮，存储模组厂有机会将先前打消库存的存货在这波顺利销售，加上 ...

Summary of Storage Module Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The storage industry is viewed as a significant sector, with ongoing debates regarding the storage module segment's growth potential and cyclical nature [1] - Current growth potential of storage modules is considered greater than its cyclical attributes, despite recent price fluctuations due to production cuts by major companies [1][2] Key Insights - The second half of the year is anticipated to be a golden period for the storage industry, with enterprise-level domestic production rates currently below 10-20% [2] - The industry is expected to experience high growth in revenue and profit over the next three years, driven by increased domestic production and demand [2] Price Cycle and AI Impact - The analysis focuses on two main aspects: the current price cycle and the impact of AI on storage module demand [3] - Historical data from Micron indicates that the storage industry is highly cyclical, with significant price fluctuations observed over the past 15 years [3][4] - Recent production cuts by major players like Micron (10% reduction in NAND production) and others have led to a rebound in NAND and DRAM prices [5][6] Demand Drivers - Increased capital expenditure by major internet companies and a recovery in PC and smartphone markets are driving demand for storage solutions [5][7] - The AI era is expected to significantly boost storage module demand, particularly for enterprise SSDs, as AI servers require more storage capacity [10][11] Domestic Production and Market Dynamics - Current domestic production rates for storage modules are low, with a push for increased localization due to national security concerns [11][12] - The domestic market for enterprise SSDs is estimated to be over $10 billion, with significant growth potential as local manufacturers ramp up production [13] Price Trends - Prices for DDR4 and NAND components have seen significant increases due to production cuts and stable demand, with DDR4 prices rising by 50% recently [8][9][10] - The price of 64-layer NAND chips has rebounded from a low of $1.4 to approximately $2.8, indicating a recovery trend [6] Future Outlook - The storage module industry is expected to enter an upward cycle, with sustained demand driven by AI and cloud computing [21] - Companies like Dominion and Jiangbo Long are positioned to benefit from the growing enterprise SSD market, with anticipated revenue growth in the coming quarters [18][19] Conclusion - The storage module sector is poised for growth, supported by favorable market conditions, technological advancements, and increasing domestic production efforts [22] - Continuous monitoring of the industry is recommended, as the potential for investment opportunities remains strong in both storage modules and related semiconductor technologies [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 110.00 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 4.41% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, down 139.52% year-over-year and down 160.58% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The growth in overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses has been robust, with Lexar brand revenue increasing by 20.73% year-over-year and Zilia's revenue growing by 45.08% year-over-year [2][3]. - The report anticipates a price rebound in DRAM/NAND products in Q2 2025, driven by inventory digestion and increased stocking willingness from downstream customers [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB, with a year-over-year decline of 4.41% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 139.52% [1][2]. - The gross margin was reported at 10.35%, down 14.04 percentage points year-over-year, but the decline in margin has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. Growth Drivers - The overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses showed strong growth, with Lexar's revenue increasing by 20.73% and Zilia's revenue increasing by 45.08% year-over-year. The enterprise storage product combination "eSSD+RDIMM" achieved over 200% year-over-year revenue growth [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and customer base, particularly in the high-end product segment [2][3]. 2025 Outlook - The report expects a price rebound in consumer storage products starting in Q2 2025, as major manufacturers like Micron have announced price increases. The company’s self-developed UFS 4.1 controller chip has successfully entered mass production, which will support new product launches [3]. - The integration of Zilia with Yuan Cheng Suzhou has improved operational efficiency and expanded the company's reach into South American markets [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 22.756 billion RMB, 26.700 billion RMB, and 29.568 billion RMB, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [4][6]. - The report projects a net profit of 668.52 million RMB for 2025, with an expected EPS of 1.61 RMB [6][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 110.00 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.256 billion RMB in Q1 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 4.41% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -152 million RMB, a significant year-over-year decline of 139.52% [1][2]. - The strong growth in overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses has been a key driver for the company's performance, despite a slow recovery in demand for consumer electronics [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the prices of DRAM and NAND products will bottom out in Q2 2025, with potential price rebounds for certain product lines as inventory levels normalize [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company's overseas and enterprise-level storage businesses saw significant growth, with Lexar brand revenue increasing by 20.73% year-over-year and Zilia's revenue growing by 45.08% year-over-year. The enterprise storage product combination "eSSD+RDIMM" achieved over 200% year-over-year revenue growth [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 10.35%, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 14.04 percentage points, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2]. 2025 Outlook - The report highlights that major manufacturers like Micron have announced price increases starting in Q2, indicating a potential rebound in consumer storage prices. The company has successfully mass-produced its self-developed UFS 4.1 controller chip, which will facilitate the introduction of new UFS products to mobile brand customers [3]. - The integration of Zilia with Yuan Cheng Suzhou has improved operational efficiency, allowing the company to expand its overseas market presence [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.756 billion RMB, 26.700 billion RMB, and 29.568 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 30.30%, 17.33%, and 10.74% [6][18]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 668.52 million RMB in 2025, with a significant recovery from previous losses [6][18].

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing a structural recovery in 2024, driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power and accelerated domestic substitution [1] - Demingli (001309) has achieved significant growth in both revenue and net profit due to its self-research capabilities and strategic layout, with annual revenue reaching 4.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 168.74%, and net profit of 351 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1302.30% [1] Business Structure - Solid-state drives (SSDs) and embedded storage are becoming the core growth drivers for the company, with SSD revenue increasing by 235.46%, accounting for 48.20% of total revenue, and embedded storage revenue soaring by 1730.60%, now making up 17.67% of total revenue [2] - Combined, these two business segments contribute over 60% of the company's revenue, while mobile storage maintains stable growth with a year-on-year revenue increase of 29.20% [2] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with expenses reaching 203 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 88.14%, and the R&D team expanding to 312 members, a growth of 90.24% [2] - Demingli has established a fully self-researched technology closed loop, integrating "main control chip + firmware algorithm + medium analysis," enhancing its vertical integration capabilities from chip design to system optimization [2] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company has made breakthroughs in enterprise-level storage and industrial control, achieving R&D and mass production of enterprise-level SSD products and engaging with major internet, cloud service, and server manufacturers [3] - The production of the company's enterprise-level storage testing line will further shorten the product development and validation cycle, with plans to launch a full range of industrial-grade products this year [3]