Sigma Lithium (SGML) shares closed 32% higher on Nov. 17 after Li Liangbin, the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Group, forecast a 30%-40% increase in global lithium (LMZ25) demand for 2026. Liangbin’s projection suggests lithium carbonate prices could climb to as much as 200,000 yuan a ton next year, more than double its price at the time of writing. More News from Barchart Despite today’s rally, SGML stock remains down roughly 40% versus its year-to-date high. www.barchart.com Here’s Why Sigma Lithium St ...

Key Points Ganfeng Lithium Group chairman Li Liangbin forecasts 30% to 40% demand growth for lithium in 2026. Lithium prices could more than double next year. Lithium Americas... doesn't actually sell lithium yet. 10 stocks we like better than Lithium Americas › Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) stock, one of a handful of lithium mining start-ups featuring zero profit and zero revenue, gained 8.2% through 11:55 a.m. ET this morning on positive news out of China for the lithium industry. As Reuters rep ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The third quarter of 2025 saw production rates sustained at 90% capacity, with a new record monthly production volume achieved in October [5][6] - The company announced a new $130 million six-year debt facility from Ganfeng, enhancing its debt profile while preserving shareholder value [5][6] - Cash costs increased by approximately 3% to $6,300 per ton due to a slight decrease in production [66][67] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The PPG project is expected to have a Stage one LCE capacity of 50,000 tons per year, expanding to 150,000 tons per year in three phases, with an initial capital investment estimated at $1.1 billion [12][13] - The total life of mine capital for the PPG project is estimated at $3.3 billion, with a strong after-tax NPV of $8.2 billion at an 8% discount rate [13][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The lithium market is projected to require approximately 1 million tons of new LCE capacity over the next decade to meet global demand, supporting long-term pricing levels [13][14] - The long-term price of lithium carbonate is projected at $18,000 per ton, with an IRR of over 20% even at a conservative price estimate of $12,000 per ton [13][74] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to sustain higher production levels while positioning itself for long-term growth, focusing on the PPG project as a key growth driver [5][34] - The partnership with Ganfeng is highlighted as a significant factor in achieving low-cost growth and technological innovation in Argentina [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting production targets for 2025 and emphasized the importance of the collaborative partnership with Ganfeng [4][6] - The company is optimistic about the lithium market's evolution, particularly the demand for energy storage systems (ESS), which may surpass the electric vehicle (EV) market [15][92] Other Important Information - The Argentine government’s RIGI program is expected to provide competitive incentives and clarity on foreign exchange regulations, enhancing the project's value [17][18] - The PPG project has received environmental permits, allowing for the submission of the RIGI application in 2026 [18][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the reason for the low capital intensity of the PPG project compared to other projects? - The lower capital intensity is attributed to the high quality of the resource and the use of new processing technologies designed to reduce the capital footprint [37][38] Question: What additional permits are required for the PPG project? - The company needs to apply for regional and water permits, which are expected to be approved in a few months [56][58] Question: How does the company plan to minimize equity dilution risk for shareholders? - The company has a strong track record of executing strategic financings and plans to leverage partnerships and project-level debt to minimize shareholder dilution [70][69] Question: What is the rationale for using $18,000 per ton as a long-term price for lithium? - The $18,000 price is aligned with third-party forecasts and is deemed necessary to incentivize new project developments over the next decade [74][73] Question: What is the current status of material quality and the timeline for achieving battery-grade product? - The company is making gradual improvements in product quality and aims to supply battery-grade product by 2026-2027 [81][82]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium Argentina AG reported its third quarter 2025 results, highlighting operational performance, production optimization, and a significant new debt facility to enhance shareholder value [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of $64.5 million for Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $2.4 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased costs associated with the Cauchari-Olaroz Project [10][12]. - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $58 million, with an average realized price of approximately $7,522 per tonne of lithium carbonate sold [8][10]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $64 million, down from $85.5 million at the end of 2024 [10][11]. Production and Costs - Lithium carbonate production totaled approximately 8,300 tonnes in Q3 2025, with a nine-month total of about 24,000 tonnes, keeping the project on track to exceed the low end of the 2025 guidance of 30,000 – 35,000 tonnes [8][10]. - The cost of sales for Q3 2025 was $57 million, with cash operating costs of $6,285 per tonne of lithium carbonate sold [8][10]. Project Developments - The PPG Scoping Study was released, indicating a pathway to large-scale, low-cost production in Salta, with an after-tax NPV of $8.1 billion and an IRR of 33% at a lithium carbonate price of $18,000 per tonne [6][8]. - The PPG Project hosts a 15.1 million tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent resource, positioning it among the largest undeveloped lithium brine resources [8][11]. Strategic Partnerships and Financing - A new $130 million, six-year debt facility from Ganfeng was announced, aimed at optimizing the capital structure and enhancing shareholder value [5][11]. - Ganfeng will hold a 67% stake in the PPG Project following a joint venture consolidation, with Lithium Argentina retaining 33% [11][12]. Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain higher production levels while implementing long-term improvements to strengthen the business [4][6]. - Expansion plans for Cauchari-Olaroz are underway, targeting an additional production capacity of 45,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent [11].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium Argentina AG reported its third quarter 2025 results, highlighting operational performance, production optimization, and a significant new debt facility to enhance shareholder value [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of $64.5 million for Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $2.4 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to a larger share of loss from the Cauchari-Olaroz Project totaling $52.5 million [10][12]. - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $58 million, with an average realized price of approximately $7,522 per tonne of lithium carbonate sold [8][10]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025, were $64 million, down from $85.5 million at the end of 2024 [10][11]. Production and Operating Costs - Lithium carbonate production totaled approximately 8,300 tonnes in Q3 2025, with a nine-month total of approximately 24,000 tonnes, keeping the project on track to surpass the low end of the 2025 guidance of 30,000 – 35,000 tonnes [8][10]. - The cost of sales for Q3 2025 was $57 million, with cash operating costs of $6,285 per tonne of lithium carbonate sold [8][10]. Project Development - The PPG Scoping Study was released, indicating a pathway to large-scale, low-cost production in Salta, with an after-tax NPV of $8.1 billion and an IRR of 33% at a lithium carbonate price of $18,000 per tonne [6][8]. - The PPG Project hosts a 15.1 million tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent resource, positioning it among the largest undeveloped lithium brine resources [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - A new $130 million, six-year debt facility from Ganfeng was announced, aimed at optimizing the capital structure and enhancing shareholder value [5][11]. - The company is advancing an expansion plan for Cauchari-Olaroz, considering an additional production capacity of 45,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent [11][21].

Core Insights - Smackover Lithium, a joint venture between Standard Lithium and Equinor, has filed its Maiden Inferred Resource report for the Franklin Project in Texas, highlighting significant lithium and other mineral resources [1][3][4] Project Overview - The Franklin Project contains 2,159,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent with an average lithium concentration of 668 mg/L, along with 15,414,000 tonnes of potash and 2,638,000 tonnes of bromide, all contained within 0.61 km³ of brine volume [3][4] - The project area spans approximately 80,000 acres, with over 46,000 acres leased to support the inferred resource, showcasing the highest reported lithium-in-brine grades in North America [4] Future Development Plans - The ultimate goal is to achieve production of over 100,000 tonnes of lithium chemicals per year in Texas, supported by two additional projects that are expected to triple the size of the joint venture's portfolio in the state [5] - Next steps include refining the characteristics of the Upper and Middle Smackover Formation aquifers and conducting direct lithium extraction testing, leveraging insights from Standard Lithium's Demonstration Plant [6][7] Company Background - Standard Lithium is focused on sustainable development of high-grade lithium-brine properties in the U.S., with a commitment to achieving commercial-scale lithium production through a fully integrated direct lithium extraction process [11][12] - Equinor, as a partner, aims to create long-term value in a low-carbon future, enhancing its portfolio with lithium projects alongside its existing oil, gas, and renewable energy initiatives [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net present value (NPV) of $2.3 billion and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 23.2% [13] - The all-in sustaining cash cost for lithium carbonate production is $4,628 per tonne, placing it in the bottom quartile globally [15][20] - Annual revenue is projected to be $790 million with an annual EBITDA of $563 million over the first 25 years [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ore reserve is now 265 million tonnes, sufficient for 77 years of mining at the current rate of 3.4 million tonnes per annum [14] - The total mineral resource is 549 million tonnes, indicating significant expansion potential [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The project is positioned within the lowest cost quartile globally for lithium carbonate equivalent production, benefiting from the co-production of boric acid [9][20] - Approximately 50% of the world's lithium production costs exceed $10,000 per tonne, while Rhyolite Ridge operates at a significantly lower cost [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to finalize a global strategic partnering process to secure capable equity partners for the Rhyolite Ridge project [4][9] - The project is designed to be a vertically integrated lithium-boron operation, enhancing the U.S. position as a significant producer of critical minerals [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence that the coming year will be transformational, translating years of effort into long-term value [10] - The company acknowledges the volatile geopolitical environment affecting the lithium sector, which has led to an extension of the partnering process into 2026 [26][41] Other Important Information - The project has received a favorable record of decision from the Bureau of Land Management, completing the NEPA permitting process [5][6] - A $986 million loan from the U.S. Department of Energy has been secured, strengthening the project's financial foundation [6][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why does the U.S. government prioritize overseas supply deals despite domestic projects? - Management clarified that very few projects are shovel-ready for lithium production, with Ioneer being one of the few fully permitted projects [37][40] Question: What is the plan for completing the remaining 30% of design engineering? - The remaining design will be completed post-FID with the assistance of an EPC contractor, Fluor [42] Question: What reasons did Sibanye give for not proceeding with the project? - Sibanye cited a lack of capacity to fund their share and stated that the project did not meet their investment criteria [44]

Core Insights - Eramet's turnover decreased by 10% in Q3 2025, amounting to €720 million, primarily due to a negative price effect of 25% and logistical challenges, despite a positive volume effect of 22% [6][20][30] Financial Performance - Adjusted turnover for manganese activities fell to €421 million, down 26% year-on-year, with manganese ore turnover declining by 35% to €221 million [17][21] - Nickel activity saw a significant increase, with adjusted turnover rising to €142 million, a 122% increase compared to Q3 2024, driven by a 567% increase in external nickel ore sales [38][39] - Mineral sands turnover decreased by 32% to €51 million, reflecting price pressures and a slight decrease in ilmenite volumes sold [55] Operational Challenges - Manganese ore transportation volumes declined by 13% to 1.6 million tonnes due to operational challenges on the rail network [21][31] - The company is facing a highly uncertain macroeconomic environment, which is negatively impacting demand and cash generation [6][20] Production and Sales - Lithium carbonate production ramped up significantly, reaching 2,080 tonnes in Q3 2025, with sales of 1,000 tonnes [66][72] - Nickel ore production in Indonesia increased to 12.3 million wet metric tonnes, with external sales volumes rising to 9.3 million wet metric tonnes [38][48] Market Trends - Global manganese ore consumption increased by 8% in Q3 2025, driven by sustained manganese alloys production, particularly in China [26] - The price index for manganese ore averaged $4.3/dmtu in Q3 2025, down 40% compared to Q3 2024, reflecting unfavorable comparatives [28] Strategic Initiatives - The company has initiated a performance improvement program focusing on safety, operational excellence, and financial resilience [5][6] - A revised Capex plan for 2025 is set between €400 million and €425 million, down from previous estimates [81] Outlook - The outlook for Q4 2025 indicates a continued decline in global carbon steel production, which is expected to impact manganese ore demand [35] - The lithium market is anticipated to remain in surplus, with prices under pressure, despite strong demand driven by electric vehicle sales [70][73]

Core Insights - The company, Zijin Mining, reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching approximately 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.33%, and net profit of about 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% [1] - The stock price of Zijin Mining closed at 30.17 yuan per share on October 17, 2023, reflecting a cumulative increase of approximately 104% year-to-date [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Zijin Mining achieved revenue of approximately 86.489 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a net profit of about 14.572 billion yuan, up 57.14% [1] - The gross profit margin for mining enterprises was 60.62%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross profit margin was 24.93%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Production Metrics - In the first three quarters, Zijin Mining's gold production reached 65 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20%, while copper production was 830,000 tons, up 5%, silver production was 335 tons, up 1%, and zinc production was 27 tons, down 12% [3] - In Q3, gold production was 24 tons, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter, while copper production was 260,000 tons, a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter [4] Strategic Developments - The increase in gold production was attributed to new acquisitions and projects, including the Ghana Akim Gold Mine, which contributed 3.2 tons of gold, and the new Xinjiang Sava Yalton Gold Mine [4] - The company is actively working on the recovery of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which was affected by flooding [4] Cost and Pricing Factors - The unit sales cost of mineral products increased due to factors such as declining ore grades and increased transportation distances [5] - The rise in gold prices significantly boosted the company's revenue from gold sales, with the gold segment becoming a key driver of profit growth [6] Subsidiary Performance - Zijin Gold International, a subsidiary, was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 28.7 billion HKD by issuing 401 million shares at a price of 71.59 HKD per share [6] - In the first three quarters, Zijin Gold International produced 32 tons of gold and achieved a net profit of 9.05 million USD, equivalent to approximately 6.484 billion yuan [6]

Summary of Key Takeaways from ZE Conference on Battery Value Chain Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Battery materials, specifically related to Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries - **Key Participants**: ZE Consulting, China Futures, and various industry contacts Core Insights - **ESS Demand Growth**: - Industry consensus indicates a rising demand for ESS batteries to compensate for slowing EV battery demand in 2026 - Demand growth forecasts for 2026 vary significantly among experts, ranging from **18% YoY** (China Futures) to **40% YoY** (ZE) [1][2] - ZE predicts global ESS production will reach **1000 GWh** in 2026, up from **600 GWh** in 2025, representing a **60%+ YoY growth** [1][2] - **Lithium Carbonate Demand**: - If ZE's forecast holds, it implies an incremental demand of **500 kt+** for lithium carbonate, potentially leading to a quicker turnaround in lithium supply-demand dynamics [2] - Experts see limited downside risk for lithium average selling prices (ASP), although policy uncertainties regarding mining licenses may introduce volatility [2] - **LFP Cathode Utilization**: - Expected increase in utilization rates for LFP cathodes by **8 percentage points YoY** in 2026, with a range of **70%-80%** [3] - Current loss-making status among LFP cathode manufacturers is deemed unsustainable, with potential for a deficit in 2027 if demand growth continues to outpace supply [5] Investment Implications - **Positive Outlook**: The overall positive sentiment from the ZE Conference aligns with a bullish outlook on the upcoming battery price up-cycle [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Continued support for companies such as **CATL**, **EVE**, **CALB**, and **Hunan Yuneng** is suggested based on strong demand forecasts and production pipelines [6] Risks to Consider - **Key Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected battery demand - Research and development challenges - Strong competition and operational execution issues - Customer concentration and litigation risks [8][10][14][16] Company Valuations - **CALB Group Co Ltd**: Target price set at **HK$33.40**, based on a **2026E P/E of 20.6x** [7] - **CATL**: Valued at **HK$621/share** based on a **17.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA** [9][11] - **Eve Energy**: Target price of **Rmb93.9/share**, using a sum-of-the-parts approach [12] - **Hunan Yuneng**: Valued at **Rmb57.9/share** based on a **14.4x 2026E EV/EBITDA** [15] Conclusion - The battery materials industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the ESS segment, with varying demand forecasts indicating a robust market. However, potential risks and challenges remain that could impact the overall outlook and company valuations.