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AI算力的下一战,不在芯片在PCB:得其新材料者得天下(附投资逻辑)
材料汇· 2025-09-29 16:02
Investment Highlights - PCB technology is evolving in materials, processes, and architecture, driving continuous value growth. The demand from AI servers, high-speed communication, and automotive electronics is pushing PCB technology upgrades across these three dimensions [2][3][9] - The upstream high-end materials are in short supply, and cost increases are being passed down to downstream PCB manufacturers. The core materials for copper-clad laminates (CCL) include copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth, with cost shares of 39%, 26%, and 18% respectively [4][6][46] - The PCB market is on an upward cycle, driven by AI, with both volume and price increasing across various sectors. The global PCB market is expected to reach $94.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [7][8] PCB Technology Evolution - The evolution of PCB technology is driven by high line density and electrical performance. PCBs serve as critical interconnects in electronic products, supporting various components and providing electrical connections [10][11] - The PCB production technology is continuously updated in materials, processes, and architecture, with significant advancements in high-density interconnects and high-performance materials [18][19][20] Upstream Materials - The core materials for CCL are copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth, which significantly influence signal transmission speed and loss. The CCL accounts for 40% of the total PCB cost [39][46] - The global CCL industry is highly concentrated, with a CR10 of 77% in 2024, indicating a strong oligopoly in the market [41] - The demand for high-end HVLP copper foil and ultra-thin copper foil is surging, with Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers dominating the high-end market [60][62][63] Market Dynamics - The PCB industry is experiencing a shift towards Southeast Asia, with China's share of the global PCB market expected to be around 50% by 2029. The industry has matured, with significant competition and a fragmented market [17] - The demand for special fiberglass cloth is increasing due to AI and high-speed communication, leading to upgrades in low-dielectric and quartz cloth [66][70] Future Outlook - The PCB market is expected to benefit from the ongoing technological advancements and increasing demand from AI and high-speed communication sectors. The integration of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoP and embedded power chips is anticipated to further enhance PCB value [23][32][34]