Core Insights - The article highlights the critical role of high-speed interconnect technology in the performance and scalability of AI data centers, with a significant increase in demand for 800G optical transceiver modules projected to reach 24 million units in 2025 and nearly 63 million units by 2026, representing a growth of 2.6 times [2]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for 800G optical transceiver modules has created a severe supply bottleneck at the upstream laser source level, particularly due to Nvidia's strategic monopoly on EML laser chip suppliers, leading to delivery times extending to 2027 [2][3]. - Major suppliers of EML lasers include Lumentum, Coherent, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, and Broadcom, with the complexity and high production barriers limiting the number of global suppliers [3]. Technology Trends - EML lasers are becoming essential for long-distance transmission due to their ability to maintain signal stability over longer distances, while Nvidia's slow progress in silicon photonics production necessitates reliance on pluggable optical transceiver modules to meet GPU cluster demands [3]. - In contrast, CW (Continuous Wave) lasers, which do not integrate modulation functions within the laser chip, are gaining traction among cloud service providers as a substitute for EML lasers due to their simpler structure and lower production barriers [5]. Market Competition - The production capacity for CW lasers is also constrained by equipment delivery times, making it challenging to meet the high demand driven by AI applications [5]. - The shortage of EML lasers has prompted many laser manufacturers to outsource the back-end processes of laser chip cutting and aging tests to other firms, tightening the overall laser supply chain and leading to expansion plans among laser suppliers [5]. High-Speed PD Demand - The demand for high-speed photodiodes (PD) is rising alongside the need for faster laser sources, with companies like Coherent, Macom, and Broadcom developing 200G PDs to match the transmission speeds of new laser technologies [6]. - Laser manufacturers are prioritizing their crystal growth capacity for laser sources while outsourcing INP crystal growth to specialized foundries to manage production effectively [6]. Industry Implications - The article concludes that the significant demand from AI is not only causing shortages in memory but also tightening the supply of lasers, with Nvidia's monopoly accelerating the adoption of CW lasers and silicon photonics technology among non-Nvidia players [7]. - This capacity competition is reshaping the supply chain dynamics, providing growth momentum for suppliers with advanced compound semiconductor crystal growth and processing capabilities [7].

Investment Highlights - PCB technology is evolving in materials, processes, and architecture, driving continuous value growth. The demand from AI servers, high-speed communication, and automotive electronics is pushing PCB technology upgrades across these three dimensions [2][3][9] - The upstream high-end materials are in short supply, and cost increases are being passed down to downstream PCB manufacturers. The core materials for copper-clad laminates (CCL) include copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth, with cost shares of 39%, 26%, and 18% respectively [4][6][46] - The PCB market is on an upward cycle, driven by AI, with both volume and price increasing across various sectors. The global PCB market is expected to reach $94.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [7][8] PCB Technology Evolution - The evolution of PCB technology is driven by high line density and electrical performance. PCBs serve as critical interconnects in electronic products, supporting various components and providing electrical connections [10][11] - The PCB production technology is continuously updated in materials, processes, and architecture, with significant advancements in high-density interconnects and high-performance materials [18][19][20] Upstream Materials - The core materials for CCL are copper foil, resin, and fiberglass cloth, which significantly influence signal transmission speed and loss. The CCL accounts for 40% of the total PCB cost [39][46] - The global CCL industry is highly concentrated, with a CR10 of 77% in 2024, indicating a strong oligopoly in the market [41] - The demand for high-end HVLP copper foil and ultra-thin copper foil is surging, with Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers dominating the high-end market [60][62][63] Market Dynamics - The PCB industry is experiencing a shift towards Southeast Asia, with China's share of the global PCB market expected to be around 50% by 2029. The industry has matured, with significant competition and a fragmented market [17] - The demand for special fiberglass cloth is increasing due to AI and high-speed communication, leading to upgrades in low-dielectric and quartz cloth [66][70] Future Outlook - The PCB market is expected to benefit from the ongoing technological advancements and increasing demand from AI and high-speed communication sectors. The integration of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoP and embedded power chips is anticipated to further enhance PCB value [23][32][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Low Dk electronic cloth industry chain presents significant investment opportunities due to the increasing demand for high-speed transmission scenarios, particularly in the context of 400G and above switch applications [2][3] - The Low Dk electronic cloth is essential for future high-speed server construction, with its application ratio expected to continuously increase as server transmission demands grow [2][3] - The market for Low Dk electronic cloth is still in a phase of continuous iteration and upgrade, with substantial market expansion potential driven by the increasing transmission rate requirements of downstream data center switches [3][4] Group 2 - The Low Dk electronic cloth industry chain has bright spots across all segments, with a favorable overall competitive landscape due to the complexity of processing and material formulation, resulting in relatively few global suppliers [4][5] - The upstream segment includes high-purity quartz fiberglass as a core material for the third generation of electronic cloth, with companies like Feilihua recommended for investment [4][5] - The midstream segment involves the manufacturing of electronic cloth, with domestic manufacturers like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology expected to expand their production capacity [4][5] - The downstream segment focuses on copper-clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing, with companies like Shenghong Technology and Shenyang Technology anticipated to increase their market share [4][5] Group 3 - The market currently has a high focus on PCB units, often overlooking the upstream electronic cloth supply chain, which is a new category with low current attention [5][6] - The demand for Low Dk electronic cloth is expected to rise in both volume and price, driven by the increasing penetration rate in high-speed switch applications [5][6] - The Low Dk electronic cloth is crucial for meeting the dielectric loss requirements of high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates, particularly for AI servers and other high-performance applications [5][6] Group 4 - The Low Dk electronic cloth industry chain can be divided into three parts: upstream (quartz fiberglass, resin, copper foil), midstream (electronic cloth R&D and manufacturing), and downstream (CCL supply) [31][32] - Upstream, quartz fiberglass is identified as a key positioning material, with its dielectric loss and thermal expansion properties superior to traditional fiberglass [33][34] - The midstream segment requires complex processing techniques for high-purity quartz fiberglass cloth, which significantly impacts the performance of electronic-grade applications [42][43] - The downstream segment is focused on the stringent requirements for PCB processing, particularly for 224G transmission technology, which poses significant challenges for manufacturers [50][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the Low Dk electronic fabric industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by high-speed transmission demands [4][6]. Core Insights - The demand for Low Dk electronic fabric is driven by the need for high-speed transmission, particularly in AI servers and data centers, which are expected to become core growth points for the industry [5][7]. - The Low Dk electronic fabric industry chain presents opportunities across all segments, with a focus on high-barrier core areas such as quartz fiber manufacturing, Low Dk electronic fabric production, and high-frequency copper-clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. High-Speed Transmission Demand - Low Dk electronic fabric is essential for ensuring the structural safety and signal transmission quality of copper-clad laminates, with data centers and servers being key growth areas [16][18]. - The increasing penetration of AI servers is driving the demand for high-speed switches and optical modules, necessitating the use of Low Dk materials to reduce dielectric loss [23][25]. 2. Industry Chain Highlights - **Upstream**: Quartz fiber is identified as a critical component, with few manufacturers capable of mass production, giving companies like 菲利华 a competitive edge [39][44]. - **Midstream**: Leading manufacturers are rapidly expanding production capacity for Low Dk electronic fabrics, with companies like 中材科技 and 宏和科技 making significant advancements [47][48]. - **Downstream**: Attention is drawn to CCL manufacturers that supply to the NVIDIA chain, as their product development and testing progress will significantly impact market share [5][8]. 3. Recommended Core Stocks - **Upstream**: Focus on quartz fiber suppliers such as 菲利华 [6][17]. - **Midstream**: Monitor companies like 中材科技 and 宏和科技 that are expanding their Low Dk electronic fabric production capabilities [6][18]. - **Downstream**: Keep an eye on high-frequency CCL manufacturers like 生益科技 and 胜宏科技 [6][20].