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迈向关键一步!谷歌收购 Wiz 标志着“软件时代”的开始
美股研究社· 2025-03-19 10:56
Core Viewpoint - Google's acquisition of Wiz, its largest acquisition to date, signals a potential shift away from its core search business, which faces significant competition from generative AI companies like ChatGPT and Perplexity. This acquisition could act as a catalyst for Wall Street to better appreciate Google's rapidly growing cloud business [1][3]. Financial Performance - Google's stock has declined by 17% since December 2024 [2]. - The company reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 12% for 2024, with operating profit margin increasing by 500 basis points to 32% [3]. - For the quarter ended December 31, 2023, revenues were $86.31 billion, with a year-over-year change of 13% [4]. - The cloud business achieved a robust growth rate of 30% year-over-year [4]. Acquisition Details - Google acquired Wiz for $32 billion, which is significant compared to its previous top ten acquisitions combined. The deal includes a $3.2 billion termination fee [6][7]. - Wiz is expected to have an ARR of $1 billion by 2025, leading to a high acquisition price-to-sales ratio of 32 times [8]. - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance Google's cloud offerings and complement its cybersecurity division, Mandiant [7]. Market Expectations - Analysts remain cautious about Google's core search business due to fears that generative AI could pose a long-term threat [3][11]. - The market expects Google's revenue to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years, although this may be overly optimistic given the challenges faced by the search business [11]. Valuation Insights - Analysts prefer a sum-of-the-parts valuation for Google, estimating the search business will generate $198 billion in revenue in 2024, with a long-term net profit margin of 45% [12]. - The estimated valuation for Google, considering all segments, is approximately $2.56 trillion, suggesting a potential upside of 25% even with conservative earnings multiples [12]. Strategic Considerations - The company is unlikely to split its business segments in the short term, although separating the cloud business could highlight its value more effectively [13]. - Despite the challenges in the search business, Wall Street is expected to focus more on the strength of Google's cloud operations, potentially undervaluing the stock [13].