谷歌母公司Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊。图片来源：David Paul Morris—Bloomberg via Getty Images 谷歌人工智能基础设施负责人警告称，公司需要扩展其技术规模，以应对AI产品所处理的海量用户涌 入和复杂请求——这可能意味着市场对泡沫的担忧被过分夸大了。 据CNBC报道，谷歌全球人工智能和基础设施团队副总裁阿明·瓦达特（Amin Vahdat）在11月6日的一次 全员会议上表示，公司需要每六个月将其服务能力翻一番，并"在4到5年内实现下一个千倍增长"。 这指的是谷歌确保Gemini及其他依赖于谷歌云（Google Cloud）的AI产品在用户查询量激增时仍能良好 运行的能力。这与算力（compute）或训练人工智能所涉及的物理基础设施不同。 一位谷歌发言人告诉《财富》："对AI服务的需求意味着我们需要提供显著更多的计算能力，除了新的 投资，我们正通过提高硬件、软件和模型优化的整体效率来推动这一点。"他并以公司的Ironwood芯片 为例，说明其自研硬件如何推动计算能力的提升。 过去几年，每一家超大规模云服务商——包括谷歌云，以及亚马逊 AWS和微软 Azure— ...

一周以来，新模型Gemini 3 Pro和Nano Banana Pro的发布引发AI圈狂欢，谷歌也成功逆袭，风头压过OpenAI，市值屡创历史新高。就在11月25日凌晨，美股 收盘时谷歌大涨超6%，收于318.58美元/股，目前市值已超过3.8万亿美元，超过微软的3.52万亿美元，进入美股总市值前三。 近一个月以来谷歌美股的涨幅已超过20%。 11月25日晚，谷歌（GOOGL.US）美股盘前大涨超4%，若开盘保持该涨幅，谷歌总市值将首次突破4万亿美元。此前，总市值突破过4万亿美元的上市公司 中有英伟达、苹果和微软，但随后微软掉出该队伍。 近一个月以来谷歌美股的涨幅已超过20%。今年初，谷歌的股价还在190美元/股附近，至今涨幅超过67%。 Gemini 3系列模型或许是谷歌这两年AI战略的重要里程碑。自2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，谷歌一直被认为"起大早赶晚集"，在AI竞赛中处于追赶OpenAI的 状态，但新的模型可能会改写格局，谷歌正在夺得领先地位，尤其是OpenAI的GPT-5被指"噱头大于实际"的情况下，AI产业正需要一个新的旗手。 谷歌在发布新模型的同时公布了Gemini用户的数据：月活跃用户 ...

华泰证券认为，与依赖外部算力资源的竞争对手不同，谷歌早在2016年就启动TPU部署，2017年已具备训练和推理能力。目前正推动TPU部署至第三方云服 务商，如Fluidstack，并采用按用量分成模式，有望开辟新的增长空间。 市场长期低估了谷歌的"全栈式"AI反击能力。 近日，华泰证券在最新研报中称，不同于OpenAI严重依赖外部算力（英伟达）和云设施（微软），谷歌正在构建从芯片（TPU v7p）到模型（Gemini 3.0） 再到应用（搜索+Waymo）的完全自给自足的生态闭环。看好谷歌自给自足"全栈式"AI 生态和能力，抢回主导权正当时。 报告指出，这一闭环正在转化为实打实的财务回报：TPU部署大幅降低推理成本，搜索市场份额企稳回升至90%以上，充沛的广告现金流为高强度的资本开 支（Capex）提供了充足弹药。 华泰证券认为，谷歌的云端大规模自研 TPU 及配套软件生态，带动云业务增速及份额提升；广告业务在 Gemini 赋能下具备变现弹性，充沛现金流反哺 AI 投入与应用落地。反观OpenAI仅具备大模型研发能力。当前用户规模虽多，但C端付费意愿较低，而B端商业化路径也尚未跑通，先发优势能否继续仍有待 ...

Core Insights - AI technology has become a core driving force in the computer and software development industry, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud providers [1] - The combined investment of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta in AI-related infrastructure is expected to exceed $110 billion by Q3 2025, primarily for data centers and AI infrastructure [1] - AI is significantly boosting cloud business revenues, with Amazon AWS backlog orders exceeding $200 billion, Microsoft Azure experiencing a growth rate of 40%, and Google Cloud revenue share increasing to 14.8% [1] - The demand for AI computing power remains robust, with NVIDIA's data center revenue reaching a record $51.2 billion in a single quarter, and Blackwell chips projected to generate $500 billion in future quarters [1] - AI technology is also driving revenue growth for SaaS companies, with firms like ServiceNow and Palantir achieving substantial income increases, including Palantir's U.S. commercial business revenue growing by 121% year-over-year [1] - The overall industry is characterized by high growth in AI-driven cloud business, strong demand for computing power, and accelerated application deployment [1] Software ETF Insights - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects publicly traded companies involved in application software, system software development, and related services [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the software industry, focusing on the information technology sector [1] - The index highlights the innovation capability and growth potential of the industry, making it suitable for investors interested in technology-focused allocations [1]

琼斯在发给客户的报告中写道："我们将谷歌视为 AI/云计算的赢家，在搜索领域占据主导地位，拥有 领先视频广告平台 YouTube，且通过谷歌云不断扩张云计算业务。""在经历监管阴影、搜索与广告竞争 加剧以及长期 AI 定位不明带来的压力后，谷歌股价已开始回升——随着该公司持续展示其 AI 实力， 我们认为估值倍数仍有进一步扩张空间。" 智通财经APP获悉，法国巴黎银行周一表示，谷歌(GOOGL.US)有望在人工智能和云计算两大领域双双 获胜。该行分析师尼克·琼斯首次覆盖谷歌，给予"跑赢大盘"评级，目标价 355 美元。他进一步指出， 推动股价走高的两大核心催化剂是：广告业务持续超预期，从而缓解市场对 AI 聊天机器人侵蚀谷歌搜 索份额的担忧;以及谷歌云实现好于预期的增长。 ...

Core Insights - AI technology has become a core driving force in the computer and software development industry, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud providers [1] - The combined investment of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta in AI-related infrastructure is expected to exceed $110 billion by Q3 2025, primarily for data centers and AI infrastructure [1] - AI is significantly boosting cloud business revenues, with Amazon AWS backlog orders exceeding $200 billion, Microsoft Azure experiencing a growth rate of 40%, and Google Cloud revenue share increasing to 14.8% [1] - NVIDIA's data center business achieved a record revenue of $51.2 billion in a single quarter, with future quarters expected to generate $500 billion [1] - AI technology is also driving revenue growth for SaaS companies, with firms like ServiceNow and Palantir seeing substantial income increases through AI platforms [1] - Overall, AI's deep penetration in cloud computing, computing power, and software applications is continuously reshaping the industry landscape and creating new growth momentum [1] Industry Overview - The Computer ETF (512720) tracks the CS Computer Index (930651), which selects listed companies involved in software development, IT services, and hardware manufacturing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies related to computing, with a focus on the information technology sector and a growth-oriented style [1]

2025.11. 25 本文字数：1866，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 美股延续上周五涨势走高。市场预期美联储12月下调联邦基金利率的概率上升，投资者暂时搁置了 对科技股估值过高的担忧。 截至收盘，道指涨202.86点，涨幅0.44%，报46448.27点，纳指涨2.69%，报22872.01点，标 普500指数涨1.55%，报6705.12点。 科 技 股 全 线 拉 升 ， 特 斯 拉 涨 6.8% ， 亚 马 逊 涨 2.5% ， Meta 涨 3.2% ， 苹 果 涨 1.6% ， 英 伟 达 涨 2.0%，甲骨文涨0.7%，微软涨0.4%。 计百度云收入增速2026年将加快至约61%。阿里巴巴涨5.1%，网易涨4.2%，京东涨0.4%，拼多 多涨0.2%。 经济数据方面，达拉斯联储11月制造业指数从10 月的-5.0跌至-10.4，表明工厂活动收缩幅度扩 大。 近期为期六周的政府停摆结束后，一系列延迟发布的经济数据暗示劳动力市场疲软，这进一步增强了 投资者的乐观预期，即美联储将在12 月货币政策会议结束时实施2025年第三次降息。 美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的鸽派言论为 ...

优异现金流与财务体质：自由现金流充沛，净现金储备高、负债可控，能支撑 AI 与云的持续投入，同 时兼顾股东回报，符合巴菲特对 "印钞机" 的偏好。充沛的自由现金流可用于再投资、回购、分红，是 巴菲特最看重的财务指标之一。 估值与安全边际：同期 PE 显著低于同梯队科技巨头，市场对其 AI 与云的价值定价不足， 合理估值与 稳健财务， 提供了可接受的买入价格与下行保护，符合 "不亏钱" 的核心原则。 AI 与云的成长期权：搜索 / 广告为基本盘，AI 赋能广告精准度与转化，谷歌云高速增长，TPU 与大模 型形成技术闭环，打开长期增长空间。AI 与云为长期增长主线，与巴菲特 "长坡厚雪" 的投资理念一 致。 弥补历史遗憾与组合优化：巴菲特与芒格曾公开表示错过谷歌是重大失误，此次建仓是对科技龙头的补 位，也优化了组合结构。 最近投资界的一则重大新闻，2025Q3 伯克希尔买入约 1785 万股谷歌，市值约 43 亿美元，跻身前十大 重仓，为当季最大新增持仓。 曾经视科技股为仇寇的巴菲特为什么突然投资谷歌了呢，是价值投资干不下去改路子了？ 非也。其实巴菲特还是那个巴菲特，投资的底层逻辑没有改变一点点，只不过世界在变， ...

软件ETF（515230）跟踪的是软件指数（H30202），该指数从市场中选取涉及应用软件、系统软件开发 及相关服务的信息技术企业证券作为指数样本，以反映软件行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 聚焦于信息技术领域，具备较高的成长性和创新性特征。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，AI技术已成为计算机和软件开发行业的核心增长引擎。海外云厂商持续加大资本开 支，CY25Q3四巨头合计投入超1100亿美元，主要投向数据中心和AI基础设施，其中亚马逊单季度资本 开支骤增55%至351亿美元。AI驱动云业务收入高增长，AWS积压订单超2000亿美元，微软Azure增速达 40%，谷歌云收入占比提升至14.8%。AI算力需求强劲，英伟达数据中心营收创单季记录达512亿美元， Blackwell芯片未来几个季度将创收5000亿美元。AI技术还推动SaaS公司业绩增长，ServiceNow、 Palantir等企业营收显著提升，AI平台和应用成为关键驱动力。行业整体呈现高景气态势，云厂商和算 力需求持续扩张。 ...

Core Insights - Google Cloud AI infrastructure head Amin Vahdat stated that the company must double its computing power every six months to meet the demand for AI services, projecting a need for a 1000-fold increase in computing power over the next 4-5 years [1][3] - Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledged concerns about an AI bubble but emphasized that the risk of underinvestment is greater [1][3][6] Group 1: Computing Power and Investment - Vahdat highlighted that the competition for AI infrastructure is the most critical and expensive part of the AI race, with Alphabet raising its capital expenditure forecast to $91-93 billion this year [3][4] - Major cloud service providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, are expected to collectively spend over $380 billion this year [3] - Pichai noted that with more computing resources, Google Cloud's performance could improve significantly, as evidenced by a 34% year-over-year revenue growth to over $15 billion in Q3 [3][7] Group 2: Infrastructure and Efficiency - Vahdat emphasized that Google's goal is not to outspend competitors but to provide more reliable, higher-performance, and scalable infrastructure [4] - The company is also enhancing processing capabilities through more efficient models and custom chips, recently launching the seventh generation of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) with nearly 30 times the energy efficiency compared to the first cloud TPU released in 2018 [5] Group 3: Financial Strategy and Market Position - CFO Anat Ashkenazi addressed concerns about accelerated capital expenditure outpacing revenue growth, stating that the company has significant growth opportunities by migrating more customers from physical data centers to the cloud [7] - Google recently released its latest AI model, Gemini 3, aiming to provide better answers to complex problems and compete with companies like OpenAI [7]