摩根士丹利：2026 年 TMT 大会三大核心主题 20260228 摘要 市场对大型科技公司（MAG 7）的 ROIC、业绩上修信心及资本开支回 报时效存疑，Meta 和 Alphabet 需明确资本开支信心来源及 ROIC 抓手， 并提供搜索、谷歌云及 Meta 广告支撑增长的具体信息，以降低市场担 忧。 Roblox、Unity 需证明其在 AI 时代的竞争力，Roblox 需阐述如何通过 自然语言工具开发下一代游戏，打破"将被 AI 颠覆"的叙事；Unity 需 证明其在游戏开发工具链中的地位；AppLovin 需证明其广告 AI 领导力， 并给出可验证的产品改进路线图。 电商平台需提供 KPI 证明其长期竞争力，Etsy 需证明交易流程的增量效 应能否转化为长期收益，eBay 需将站内体验改进转化为更好的消费者 体验和消费频次提升，构建稳固业务基础。 Booking 估值此前被低估，投资者认可其在欧洲和亚洲的供应模式及直 连流量增长，但对其长期估值倍数和终局形态存在不确定性。需关注其 交易量趋势、与 OpenAI 合作进展、自有生成式 AI 构建及核心业务风险 弱化路径。 Q&A 围绕摩根士丹利 2 ...

监管机构担心，如果微软利用其软件授权优势变相强制用户绑定Azure服务，将严重损害云市场的自由 竞争，并推高企业数字化转型的长期成本。因此，日本反垄断监管机构正采取日益强硬的措施，遏制其 认定美国大型科技公司日益扩张的寡头垄断态势，此举与海外监管机构立场形成协同。 随着欧盟与美国此前已对类似的捆绑行为展开深入审查，日本此次高调介入意味着全球主要经济体对云 基础设施公平准入的共识正在加强。值得一提的是，日本公平交易委员会去年曾向谷歌发出停止令，指 出该安卓软件提供商曾要求商业合作伙伴优先推广其智能手机应用，涉嫌滥用市场支配地位。 随着生成式人工智能的迅猛发展，云服务市场预计将加速扩张——该技术高度依赖高性能服务器集群的 支撑。尽管日本本土拥有数据中心运营商(政府正通过扶持这些企业强化国家网络安全体系)，但与全球 多数国家类似，其本土云服务市场的主导地位仍被美国供应商牢牢占据。 智通财经APP获悉，据一位知情人士透露，日本反垄断监管机构公平交易委员会(JFTC)于2月25日对微 软(MSFT.US)日本总部发起了现场突击检查。此次行动的核心在于调查微软是否利用其在操作系统及办 公软件市场的绝对主导地位，不当地推广 ...

微软被突击搜查 知情人士称，微软日本公司涉嫌设置了相关条件，导致其软件无法在除Azure以外的云平台上使用，或 在其他云平台使用会产生更高费用。 微软被认为利用了其在服务器操作系统Windows Server和办公软件Microsoft 365方面的优势，其日本子 公司涉嫌通过限制在其他云平台上使用这些热门服务，将客户引导至自家Azure平台。(作者/箫雨) 知情人士称，日本公平贸易委员会正在调查微软涉嫌违反《反垄断法》的不公平贸易行为，还将要求微 软美国母公司作出澄清。 目前，微软Azure正与另外两大云服务商亚马逊云服务AWS和谷歌云争夺全球市场份额。为了确保不断 发展的科技行业拥有一个公平竞争环境，日本公平贸易委员会进行了此次突击搜查。 凤凰网科技讯 北京时间2月25日，据《日经亚洲》报道，据知情人士透露，日本反垄断监管机构周三突 击搜查了微软日本公司的办公室，此举是为了调查这家美国软件巨头是否不当阻碍其Azure云平台客户 使用其他云服务。 ...

Industry Overview - The report highlights that North American capital expenditures are expected to continue growing, driven by AI investments, with a projected total of $660 billion in 2026, a 60% increase from 2025 and more than double the 2024 figures [6][7] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are experiencing significant growth in their cloud businesses, with Amazon's cloud sales reaching $128.7 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, and Microsoft's Azure revenue exceeding $75 billion, up 34% [6][7] - The integration of AI into traditional business models is revitalizing sectors such as search, advertising, and e-commerce, with AI-driven tools generating substantial new revenue streams [6][7] Company Analysis: Huafeng Technology (688629.SH) - Huafeng Technology anticipates a net profit of 338-388 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6-40.6 million yuan [9][10] - The company is focusing on the development of high-speed line modules and has a robust pipeline of domestic super-node projects, which are expected to accelerate production [9][10] - The demand for AI servers and related equipment is driving revenue growth, with the company projecting a significant increase in orders and production capacity for high-speed line modules [10] Company Analysis: Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) - Changan Automobile plans to repurchase shares worth 1-2 billion yuan to enhance investor confidence, with a clear sales target of 3.3 million vehicles for 2026, representing a 13.3% increase [12][14] - The company reported a total sales volume of 2.913 million vehicles in 2025, marking an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with a strong focus on electric vehicles, which saw a 51.1% increase [12][14] - Changan aims to launch 43 new models over the next three years and is investing 6 billion yuan in new energy vehicle development and smart platform projects [12][14][15]

当前，科技巨头已纷纷入局AI重资产比拼，预计亚马逊、微软、Meta与字母表4家公司2026年在AI方面 的支出合计将达到6600亿美元。巨额基建投入能否持续转化为稳定盈利仍是未知数。近期4家公司发布 财报后在股市遭遇重挫，市值已合计蒸发9000亿美元，体现出市场对AI投资回报的焦虑，投资者担 忧，相关资本支出规模正超越新技术本身的盈利潜力。此外，行业内的资本扎堆可能引发资源浪费，如 果更多企业盲目跟风加大投入，而忽视技术差异化与商业化可行性，或将催生新的AI泡沫。 （文章来源：经济日报） 字母表公司此次发债背后的核心支撑是其在AI领域的全栈布局与领先优势。字母表公司最新财报显 示，谷歌云业务实现48%的同比增长，创下176.64亿美元的单季收入，展现出AI变现的潜能。同时，不 同币种、不同期限的债券品种能够吸引资产管理公司和对冲基金，以及偏好长期债券的养老金和保险公 司等各类投资者，并避免对单一美元市场的依赖。 此次发布的百年债券引起了广泛讨论。通常来讲，仅有政府、大学等大型机构发行长达百年的债券，而 企业由于面临较多不确定性因素，一般发行债券的最长期限为40年。上一次发行百年期债券的企业还要 追溯到1997 ...

Alphabet CEO桑达尔·皮查伊 如果采用之前对互联网的估值方式对AI大模型公司进行估值，那么很有可能会错失一个时代。 但这并不意味着，所有的大模型公司都能获配超溢价估值。 过去很长一段时间，对于创业型科技企业我们习惯找一家头部公司进行对标，然后贴上相应的标签。例如在芯片领域，一些创业型芯片企业很容易被对标 英伟达，然后给予超出公司实际营收水平且梦幻般的估值。 实际上，从公司本身的质地而言，差距十分明显。而英伟达作为芯片全球龙头，不管从需求的角度还是市场的角度，其产品很容易出售，业绩也很容易兑 现，市场给予的高估值往往一两年就能被消化。 因此，尽管近两年英伟达市值暴涨超过了十倍，但截至目前，该公司的动态市盈率也仅有46.5倍。而一些对标英伟达的芯片企业，其产品和营收本身比较 欠缺，两者之间的鸿沟明显，却因为被贴上"某某英伟达"的标签获得超过百倍以上的估值，这显然是荒谬的，也是不合理的。 另外，从产品本身而言，随着头部科技公司的资本开支加大，其与中腰部公司的差距并非不断被缩小，而是越来越大。且随着头部公司的产品迭代速度加 快，市场则会更加青睐优质的产品。在这种背景下小公司逆袭的故事，只会越来越少。 谷歌 ...

谷歌CEO在印度AI峰会上透露谷歌云积压订单已翻倍至2400亿美元，以此证明高额资本开支的合理性。DeepMind CEO预测实现通用人工智能至少仍 需5-10年。谷歌高层一致认为，AI将从根本上改变中小企业和科学研究的工作流，印度正从单纯的市场转变为AI领域的"全栈建设者"。 谷歌核心管理层齐聚印度， 在回应市场对巨额资本开支担忧的同时，披露了关键业务数据，并将当前的AI浪潮比作"速度快10倍的工业革命"。 2月18日，在印度举行的AI峰会上，Alphabet（谷歌母公司）CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）、Google DeepMind CEO德米斯·哈萨比斯（Demis Hassabis）以及谷歌高级副总裁詹姆斯·曼尼卡（James Manyika）罕见同台。 面对市场关于AI投资回报率的质疑以及对"AI泡沫"的担忧，谷歌高管团队从技术演进周期、商业化数据验证以及未来宏观经济影响三个维度进行了详细 阐述。皮查伊在对话中透露，谷歌 云业务的积压订单同比增长了一倍，达到2400亿美元。 回应"房间里的大象"：这不是泡沫，是新基建 随着科技巨头在AI基础设施上的资本开支不断攀升，华尔街对于成本 ...

Core Insights - Major tech companies are investing heavily in AI platforms, with Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu collectively spending over 45 billion yuan to attract new users during the 2026 Spring Festival [2][8] - The marketing strategies have evolved from simple cash giveaways to more sophisticated methods that include subsidies, scenario binding, and social sharing, reflecting a shift from technical competition to ecosystem development [2][4] Group 1: Investment and Marketing Strategies - Tencent initiated the competition by distributing 10 billion yuan in cash red envelopes, leveraging its social ecosystem with over 1.4 billion monthly active users to enhance user engagement [3] - Baidu followed with 5 billion yuan in red envelope benefits, integrating its AI product with its existing app ecosystem to capture new traffic [3] - Alibaba's strategy involved offering 30 billion yuan in vouchers through its app, which connects various services within its ecosystem, enhancing user experience and engagement [3] Group 2: Evolution of AI Applications - AI applications are transitioning from basic functionalities to becoming integral parts of daily life, evolving into comprehensive digital assistants that can handle various tasks beyond simple queries [4][7] - The competition is moving towards embedding AI deeply into everyday scenarios, making it a necessity rather than an optional feature [7][12] Group 3: Future Implications and Competitive Landscape - The current marketing tactics are seen as a short-term strategy for user acquisition, with the real challenge being user retention post-subsidy [9][12] - The battle for AI dominance is not just about immediate user engagement but about establishing a long-term operational system that can integrate various services seamlessly [9][17] - Companies that can effectively create a reliable and compliant AI ecosystem will likely emerge as leaders in the global market, as the competition extends beyond local user engagement to include technological sovereignty and adaptability [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1]. Core Insights - North American major CSPs have released their financial reports, indicating that AI has transitioned from a cost center to a revenue engine, leading to an urgent and genuine increase in capital expenditures for 2026, which are expected to exceed forecasts [2][17]. - The cloud business is experiencing significant growth through AI capabilities, with AWS cloud sales increasing by 20% year-on-year to reach $128.7 billion, and Google Cloud projected to exceed $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and solutions [3][17]. - The total capital expenditure planned by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta for 2026 is projected to reach $660 billion, a 60% increase from 2025 and more than double that of 2024, with Amazon's expected expenditure of $200 billion exceeding market expectations by $50 billion [5][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The AI investment cycle is distinct from previous cloud computing infrastructure phases, with the current capital expenditure cycle not showing signs of peaking, as evidenced by the rapid growth of AI tokens and the introduction of various automated programming workflows [6][20]. - The competition between CPO and optical module technology routes has caused market fluctuations, with concerns about the potential market space being consumed by CPO advancements [10][22]. Market Performance - The overall market saw a decline during the week of February 2-6, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.27% and the Shenwan Communication Index falling by 6.95%. However, the optical cable and submarine cable sector experienced a notable increase of 19.05% [11][23]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Longfly Fiber and Tongyu Communication, while companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Lian Te Technology faced substantial declines [11][37]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include those involved in Scaleup/NPO such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Newyi Sheng, as well as those in passive optical components like Zhishang Technology and Changxin Bochuang [11][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [4][7]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the communication industry index increased by 5.47%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (+3.76%), CSI 300 Index (+1.65%), Shenzhen Component Index (+5.03%), and ChiNext Index (+4.47%) [3][13]. - The capital expenditure of the four major North American cloud providers is expected to grow over 60% year-on-year, indicating a turning point for CPO commercialization applications [4][6]. - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [6][44]. - The three major telecom operators in China achieved a total telecom business revenue of 1.75 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [6][45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication industry index rose by 5.47% in January 2026, outperforming major indices [3][13]. - Sub-sectors such as cables, other communication equipment, and system equipment saw increases of 19.70%, 10.72%, and 7.85% respectively [16]. Industry Tracking - The capital expenditure of North American cloud providers reached $126 billion in Q4 2025, a 62% year-on-year increase, with a forecast of over $660 billion for 2026 [24][25]. - AI applications are increasingly driving cloud business growth, with significant investments in AI infrastructure by major cloud providers [30][34]. Telecom Industry Insights - The telecom industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on new information infrastructure such as 5G and gigabit networks [45]. - The revenue from emerging businesses like cloud computing and big data reached 450.8 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.7% year-on-year [45]. Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market [6][44]. - The latest AI smartphones feature advanced NPU chips with processing power between 60 to 200 TOPS, enhancing user experience through real-time interactions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optical devices, optical chips, optical modules, and AI smartphones, including Tianfu Communication, ZTE, and China Mobile [7].