Altria (NYSE: MO ) owns Philip Morris USA, the maker of Marlboro® cigarettes and John Middleton, manufacturer of Black & Mild® cigars. Their smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company, the maker of Copenhagen® and Skoal®, Helix Innovations, the maker of on!® oral nicotine pouches andI am an equities analyst based in South Africa, with focused coverage on the South African equity market. I have ten years experience working as an analyst at three prominent South African fund man ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands and Altria are both considered stable blue chip stocks, but Altria has outperformed Constellation significantly over the past three years, raising questions about future investment potential [1][2]. Constellation Brands - Constellation Brands generates most of its revenue from its beer business, with popular brands like Modelo and Corona, and a smaller portion from wine and spirits [4]. - The company faces three major challenges: declining beer consumption among younger consumers, decreasing sales of lower-end wines, and increased costs due to tariffs on imported Mexican beers [5][6]. - Analysts expect Constellation's revenue to decline from $10.2 billion in 2024 to $9.9 billion in 2027, while its earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [8]. - Despite a low valuation at 14 times forward earnings and a forward yield of 2.5%, the lack of near-term catalysts makes it an unappealing investment [9]. Altria - Altria primarily generates revenue from its Marlboro cigarettes and has a strong domestic focus, which protects it from tariffs and foreign-exchange issues [10][11]. - The company has been countering declining smoking rates by raising cigarette prices, cutting costs, and expanding its smokeless product portfolio through investments and acquisitions [12]. - Following a setback with its investment in Juul, Altria acquired Njoy for $2.8 billion in 2023, which is expected to boost EPS starting in 2026 [13]. - Analysts predict Altria's revenue will dip slightly from $20.4 billion in 2024 to $20.2 billion in 2027, but its EPS is expected to grow at a steady CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2027 [14][15]. - Altria's stock is considered cheap at 12 times forward earnings, with a substantial forward yield of nearly 7%, making it a more stable investment compared to Constellation [15]. Investment Recommendation - Altria is viewed as the better investment option due to its more stable business model, larger dividend, and lower valuation multiple compared to Constellation Brands [16].

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of tobacco stocks, particularly Altria Group, has been notable in 2025, with shares up nearly 17% and approaching $60, a level not seen since 2017, as investors seek safe-haven stocks during uncertain times [1]. Company Overview - Altria Group, owner of the Marlboro brand, primarily operates in the U.S. market and has faced significant declines in cigarette usage, which is expected to continue, particularly among young adults [3][8]. - The company has invested in diversifying its product offerings, including cannabis, nicotine pouches, cigars, electronic vaping, and alcohol, but has experienced muted success and notable failures, such as the $12.8 billion investment in Juul, which was written down to zero [4][12]. Financial Performance - The majority of Altria's revenue, approximately 88%, still comes from smokables, with new initiatives in vaping and nicotine pouches contributing minimally to overall revenue [5]. - Cigarette volumes for Marlboro declined by 13.3% year-over-year, a significant acceleration compared to historical declines of under 5% annually, indicating a major shift in the industry [8][10]. Dividend and Profitability Risks - Altria's ability to maintain profits has relied on increasing cigarette prices and reducing overhead costs, but this strategy is not sustainable long-term as the majority of its $11.6 billion in annual operating earnings is derived from cigarettes [9][10]. - The company faces risks to its dividend growth, which could be halted or slashed if profits decline without being replaced by new nicotine consumption [9][10]. Debt and Financial Strategy - Altria has accumulated $26 billion in debt, primarily to fund stock repurchases, which has not yet led to a dividend cut but poses risks for the future as the cigarette business deteriorates [14]. - The company has reduced its shares outstanding by about 10% over the last five years, which can benefit dividend per share but is being achieved through increased leverage [13][14]. Investment Outlook - The combination of a highly leveraged balance sheet, significant volume declines, and lack of successful diversification presents a challenging outlook for Altria Group, suggesting that investors should be cautious about purchasing the stock even with its attractive dividend yield [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - High-yield dividend stocks are highlighted as a reliable source of income for investors, particularly in retirement, with a focus on companies that have a proven track record of consistent dividend payments [1][2]. Group 1: Company Summaries - **Realty Income**: Current yield is 5.6%, known for being one of the largest REITs globally, paying monthly dividends, and has raised dividends for 110 consecutive quarters, with a payout ratio of 75% of anticipated 2025 funds from operations [4][5]. - **Altria Group**: Current yield is 6.7%, recognized as a Dividend King with over 50 years of uninterrupted dividend increases, despite declining cigarette volumes, maintains a payout ratio around 80% of cash flow, and has a significant stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev [6][7][8]. - **British American Tobacco**: Current yield is 6.8%, operates globally with a focus on next-generation nicotine products, has a dividend payout ratio of 66% of cash flow, and has transitioned to a quarterly payment schedule [9][10]. - **Verizon Communications**: Current yield is 6.1%, a leader in the U.S. wireless market with 21 consecutive annual dividend increases, and a payout ratio of only 58% of 2025 earnings estimates [11][12]. - **Enbridge**: Current yield is 5.7%, operates extensive pipelines and utilities, has a strong dividend track record with 28 consecutive annual increases, and maintains a payout ratio of 60% to 70% of distributable cash flow [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The tobacco industry is evolving into the nicotine industry, with Altria Group and British American Tobacco being key players, but British American Tobacco is currently better positioned for growth and market share in smokeless products [2][10][12]. Company Comparison - Altria and British American Tobacco both offer high dividend yields around 7% and have similar financial metrics, but their growth prospects differ significantly [2][5]. - Altria primarily operates in the U.S. with its Marlboro brand, while British American Tobacco has a global presence and competes mainly with Philip Morris International [4]. Financial Health - Both companies generate sufficient free cash flow to cover dividends and have significant stakes in other companies, with Altria's stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev valued at approximately $11 billion and British American Tobacco's stake in ITC Limited valued at around $16 billion [7]. Industry Adaptation - The decline in traditional cigarette use has prompted both companies to invest in smokeless nicotine products, with British American Tobacco leading in the electronic vape market with a 40% market share and 13.2% of total revenue from new product categories in 2024 [9][10]. - Altria has struggled with its investments in smokeless products, reporting only $300 million in sales from new categories in 2024, which is just 1.2% of its total revenue [11]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. government’s crackdown on illegal vape products benefits both companies, but British American Tobacco is expected to gain more due to its strong market share in vaping [14]. - Altria faces challenges in maintaining its market leadership in next-generation nicotine products, which could weaken its business as cigarette volumes decline [15].

Core Viewpoint - British American Tobacco (BAT) is emerging from a challenging decade and is positioned to potentially outperform the market moving forward, despite the inherent risks associated with tobacco investments [1][2][3]. Company Performance - BAT has faced significant challenges over the past decade, including a tumultuous market environment and the consequences of a costly merger with Reynolds American, which resulted in a $31.5 billion non-cash write-down on its U.S. cigarette brands in late 2023 [3][10]. - The stock has shown a 43% increase over the past year, although it remains down 25% from a decade ago, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards a more favorable outlook for the company [11]. Revenue and Growth - BAT's new category products, including electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco, have seen organic, currency-neutral sales growth of 8.9% in 2024, contributing to 17.5% of total revenue [4]. - Management anticipates annualized currency-neutral revenue growth of 3% to 5% starting in 2026, which, while modest, represents a recovery path from previous declines [5]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company offers a nearly 7% dividend yield, providing attractive short-term returns, especially during periods of market volatility [2][6]. - In 2024, BAT generated £7.9 billion in free cash flow and paid out £5.2 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio of 66%, indicating a healthy cash flow position [8]. Valuation and Market Position - BAT's stock valuation has improved, currently trading at under 10 times 2025 earnings estimates, which is a significant recovery from a low of under 8 times earnings early last year [12]. - The company’s strategic focus on transitioning to smoke-free products positions it favorably against competitors, although it still trails Philip Morris International in this area [4][10].

Core Insights - Altria Group and Philip Morris International both produce and sell Marlboro cigarettes, but they operate in different markets, with Altria focusing on North America and Philip Morris on international markets [1][6][7] Company Performance - Altria's cigarette volumes fell by 10.2% in 2024, continuing a negative trend, while Philip Morris saw a 0.6% increase in cigarette volumes in 2025, indicating a more favorable business performance for Philip Morris [8] - Altria has made several strategic mistakes, including the spin-off of Philip Morris, which is now seen as a loss of its best business segment [9][11] Market Positioning - Tobacco companies are classified as consumer staples, but unlike necessities, tobacco products are based on personal preference, leading to scrutiny over health impacts [3][5] - Philip Morris has successfully shifted nearly 39% of its revenue and almost 40% of its gross profit to smoke-free products, positioning itself better for future growth compared to Altria, which still relies on cigarettes for nearly 90% of its revenue [11][12] Investment Considerations - Altria offers a high dividend yield of 6.9%, appealing to income investors, while Philip Morris has a lower yield of 3.1% but is considered a better long-term investment due to its stronger business performance [10][13][14] - For investors with a long-term perspective, Philip Morris is viewed as the more attractive option due to its better positioning and growth potential [14]