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半导体代工:台积电2Q收入超预期,看好先进代工景气度持续上行
HTSC· 2025-07-14 10:18
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The demand for advanced processes remains strong, with TSMC's 2Q25 revenue exceeding expectations, achieving NT$933.8 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - The N3 platform demand is rapidly increasing, with over 70 new tape-out products received in April, indicating structural growth potential [2] - The forecast for computing power demand has been raised, with significant growth expected in the AI custom acceleration chip market, projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 53% [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: TSMC's Performance - TSMC's 2Q25 revenue reached NT$933.8 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of NT$929.1 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - The average exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciated by 6.7% against the US Dollar, leading to a dollar-denominated revenue increase of 18.8% [1] Section 2: N3 Platform Demand - Concerns about TSMC's revenue growth in April and May being driven by tariff impacts are mitigated by the company's indication that there has been no change in customer order patterns [2] - The N3 platform and its derivatives are experiencing rapid demand growth, with a significant number of new tape-outs expected [2] Section 3: AI Demand and Market Outlook - Major companies are continuously iterating on pre-trained models, with OpenAI and xAI's large-scale computing clusters driving demand for pre-training and inference [3] - Marvell has revised its 2028 data center total addressable market (TAM) forecast from $75 billion to $94 billion, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector [3] Section 4: Advanced and Mature Process Pricing - TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced processes to mitigate margin dilution from overseas factory expansions, while competition in mature processes remains intense [4] - The upcoming N2 node production is expected to enhance product structure and drive advanced average selling price (ASP) increases [4]