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厦钨新能:主业稳健向上,新品打开成长空间-20250601
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-01 13:25
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57 CNY, based on a 30x P/E for 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company has been a leader in lithium battery cathode materials for over 20 years, particularly in cobalt lithium, with a global market share of approximately 47% in 2024 [1][34]. - The company is expanding its product offerings to include ternary and iron-lithium cathode materials, which are gaining market traction due to their competitive advantages [1][2]. - New materials such as NL cathode materials and lithium sulfide solid electrolytes are being actively developed, positioning the company for leadership in next-generation battery technologies [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of new energy battery materials, with key products including high-voltage cobalt lithium, high-voltage ternary materials, and iron-lithium [12]. - Cobalt lithium is recognized for its superior performance and has maintained a leading market position due to its high voltage and energy density, making it suitable for high-end consumer electronics [13][27]. Product Development - The cobalt lithium segment is expected to benefit from stable demand growth, driven by the increasing average capacity of consumer electronics [2]. - Ternary materials are gaining traction in applications such as drones, thanks to their high power and voltage advantages [2][41]. - The NL materials are poised for rapid adoption in consumer electronics and drones once downstream testing is completed [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit from 800 million CNY in 2025 to 1.19 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 62%, 18%, and 26% respectively [5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.30 billion CNY, with a net profit of 494 million CNY, indicating a slight decline compared to the previous year [24]. Market Position - The company holds a dominant position in the cobalt lithium market, with a sales volume of 46,184 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.52% [34]. - The ternary materials segment also saw a significant increase in sales, driven by the demand from the new energy vehicle sector [24][41]. Future Outlook - The global cobalt lithium market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 9.1% from 2024 to 2032, driven by high-end consumer electronics and portable energy storage systems [32]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth through its advanced technology and established customer relationships [5][34].