1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 7.97% to 157,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehousing receipt inventory was concentratedly cancelled by 19,746 tons, leaving 11,318 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 628 tons to 24,814 tons. In April, the expected production of lithium carbonate will increase by 4% month - on - month to 110,950 tons, with battery - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 4.17% to 81,190 tons and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increasing by 3.77% to 29,760 tons. On the demand side, the expected production of ternary materials in April will decrease by 3.85% month - on - month to 80,970 tons, while the production of lithium iron phosphate will increase by 5.53% to 450,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, inventory in other links decreasing by 660 tons to 35,500 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 724 tons to 17,332 tons [3]. - Affected by the news that the suspension of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe might be alleviated, the price of lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly. Further observation of policy changes is needed. Recently, the price of lithium ore has been continuously strengthening, reflecting the reality and expectation of tight circulation at the ore end. The reduction caused by the suspension of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe may appear from late April to May. If the suspension continues, the gap will continue to widen. If there is an expectation of resuming exports, there will be a situation of tight current supply and loose future expectation. The impact of concentrated shipments should be vigilant. Therefore, with high uncertainty currently, it is difficult for the price to maintain at a high level. Also, from the current spot procurement and sales rhythm and inventory rhythm, if the price strengthens rapidly in the short term, the spot trading rhythm may slow down, causing a divergence between futures and spot prices to some extent. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 171,620 yuan/ton on March 30, 2026, to 157,200 yuan/ton on March 31, 2026, a drop of 14,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 170,060 yuan/ton to 158,040 yuan/ton, a drop of 12,020 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%, Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also decreased to varying degrees [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 107,000 yuan/ton. The prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate decreased to varying degrees, while the prices of some products such as manganese acid lithium and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts of the prices of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 are shown [12][14][18]. - Spreads: Charts of spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide are presented [18][20]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are provided [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 are shown [32][36]. - Inventory: Charts of the downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from July 2025 to March 2026 are presented [39][41]. - Production cost: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026, including the cash production profit of purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate, is shown [44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic new energy cathode materials industry, with a comprehensive product matrix that includes lithium cobalt oxide, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and hydrogen energy materials [4][17]. - After experiencing a period of adjustment, the company's performance is gradually recovering, with revenue returning to stable growth and significant improvement in profitability [5][26]. - The company's business structure is diversifying, laying a foundation for expanding downstream applications [6][37]. - The company maintains a solid leading position in lithium cobalt oxide and has advanced technology in high-nickel ternary materials [7][39]. - The company is actively laying out new technologies in frontier materials, establishing potential for future growth [8][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company evolved from the battery materials division of Xiamen Tungsten Industry, becoming a leader in the new energy cathode materials sector. Its product offerings are diverse, including high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide and various ternary materials, supported by strong technological innovation and a differentiated strategy [4][17]. Performance Recovery - The company faced a decline in performance due to falling prices of key raw materials like lithium, nickel, and cobalt in 2023-2024. However, by the second half of 2024, revenue decline slowed significantly, and net profit began to recover. In early 2026, the company reported revenue between 2.702 billion to 3.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60% to 110% [5][28][29]. Business Diversification - Since 2022, the company has been releasing capacity for ternary cathode materials, creating a dual-drive pattern of lithium cobalt oxide and ternary materials. This diversification is expected to enhance applications in consumer batteries, power batteries, and energy storage [6][37]. Market Position - The company holds a dominant position in the lithium cobalt oxide market, with a projected global market share of 51% by 2025. The demand for high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide is expected to continue increasing due to policy support and upgrades in downstream applications [7][52]. Future Growth Potential - The company is investing in new technologies such as NL structural materials and solid-state battery materials, which are anticipated to drive product upgrades and benefit from the future commercialization of solid-state batteries [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and improving demand expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with light positions and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a strong and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a rise of +17.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 168,440 yuan/ton [5] - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The Minister of Finance stated that fiscal policies will focus more on investing in people, increasing the proportion of public service and livelihood - related government investment, and intensifying inclusive policies directly reaching consumers [5] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of lithium salt plants has increased, boosting the demand for lithium ore. However, due to tightened overseas exports and uncertain resumption times of domestic large mines, the supply of lithium ore is expected to be tight, and the lithium ore price is firm. The smelter's operating rate has increased, and they adopt a strategy of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, with few spot sales. Chile's shipments have increased, and subsequent arrivals will supplement the supply. Downstream material factories are cautious and wait - and - see, and the spot market trading sentiment is weak. The export demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the subsequent intensive release of new car models may drive the demand expectation [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 168,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24,580 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 960 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,860 yuan/ton [11] - **Spot Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 10,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15,580 yuan/ton [15] 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,355 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 US dollars/ton [21] - **Lithium Mica**: As of March 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 13,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,363 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 538 yuan/ton [25] 4. Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 26,426.79 tons, a decrease of 431.27 tons from January, a decline of 1.61%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. The monthly export volume was 596.077 tons, an increase of 124.52 tons from January, an increase of 26.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% [31] - **Production**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,520 tons, a decrease of 5,950 tons from January, a decline of 10.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 49.96%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] 5. Downstream Market - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 106,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 184,380 tons, a decrease of 33,220 tons from January, a decline of 15.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.87% [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 58,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, an increase of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [40] - **Ternary Materials**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The monthly operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to decline [43] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [48] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59% [51] 6. Application Market - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: As of February 2026, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.18% of the cumulative sales of all vehicles (penetration rate), with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 694,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05% [55] - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of February 2026, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [58] 7. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.01, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 0.64% to 157,220 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 4,000 yuan/ton to 156,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 4,000 yuan/ton to 153,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 4,000 yuan/ton to 145,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 709 tons to 30,751 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 628 tons to 24,814 tons, and the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated production of ternary materials in March increased by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, other sectors decreasing by 660 tons to 35,500 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 724 tons to 17,332 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly inventory has turned to a slight accumulation, and the downstream inventory level has significantly rebounded. So, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may weaken the downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, attention should be paid to potential gaps in lithium ore supply. In the long - term, the price center will still move up, so it is still advisable to consider bottom - fishing [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Futures price: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 fell 0.64% to 157,220 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 4,000 yuan/ton to 156,500 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 4,000 yuan/ton to 153,500 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 4,000 yuan/ton to 145,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Warehouse receipt inventory: Decreased by 709 tons to 30,751 tons [3]. - Supply: Weekly production increased by 628 tons to 24,814 tons, and March production is expected to increase by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons [3]. - Demand: In March, the production of ternary materials is expected to increase by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons [3]. - Inventory: Weekly social inventory increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 552 tons to 46,657 tons, other sectors decreasing by 660 tons to 35,500 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 724 tons to 17,332 tons [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract rose 6,180 yuan/ton to 159,120 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract rose 6,300 yuan/ton to 158,740 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rose 71 US dollars/ton to 2,143 US dollars/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium - phosphorus - aluminum stone also increased [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 5,000 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 5,000 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide increased by 4,000 yuan/ton or 0.1 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price dropped 1,000 yuan/ton to 107,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,000 yuan/ton, while other price differences changed to varying degrees [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most precursor and cathode materials increased, such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate [5]. - Battery cells and batteries: The prices of some battery cells and batteries increased slightly [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium - phosphorus - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2026 [12][14]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2026 [17][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of different raw material sources from 2024 to 2026 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 4.34% to 159,120 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 152,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 5,000 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 143,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 618 tons to 31,460 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons, and the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated production of ternary materials in March increased by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, other links decreasing by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly de - stocking speed has significantly slowed down, and the downstream inventory level has relatively significantly recovered. Therefore, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may lead to a weakening of downstream procurement enthusiasm. However, recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long - term energy substitution logic has strengthened, and the stock market has reacted more strongly. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium and long term, the price center will still move up, so it is still possible to consider bargain - hunting [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 159,120 yuan/ton, up 6,180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 158,740 yuan/ton, up 6,300 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,143 US dollars/ton, up 71 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,175 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,600 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 12,325 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 152,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 149,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 143,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 149,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 131,550 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 18.3 US dollars/kg, up 0.1 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 107,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 16,893 yuan/ton, down 3,369 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of manganese - acid lithium and cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased by 0.004 yuan/Wh, while other cell and battery prices remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 to 2026 [17][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][40]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 147,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 144,500 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 500 yuan/ton to 139,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,459 tons to 32,078 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons; the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated output of ternary materials in March increased by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, other links decreased by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly de - stocking speed has significantly slowed down, and the downstream inventory level of spot has significantly rebounded. Therefore, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may lead to a weakening of downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long - term energy substitution logic has strengthened, and the stock market has responded more strongly. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium and long term, the price center will still move up, so it is still advisable to consider bottom - fishing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products are presented. Supply, demand, and inventory data for lithium carbonate in March are also provided, along with an outlook on the market [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the prices of lithium - related products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain on March 24 and March 23, 2026, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products. It also includes price differentials and the prices of some battery products [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][7][8][9][10]. 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2026 [12][13][14][15]. 3.3.3 Price Differentials - Charts show the price differentials between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differentials from 2024 to 2026 [17][18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts present the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30]. 3.3.5 Lithium - Battery Prices - Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium - iron - phosphate cells, cobalt - acid - lithium cells, and square lithium - iron - phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][32][35][36]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts display the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium - carbonate industry from 2025 to 2026 [38][39][40][41]. 3.3.7 Production Costs - Chart shows the cash production profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2026 [43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The introduction of the non - ferrous research team members includes their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [46][47][48][49]. 3.5 Contact Information - Company address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postcode are provided [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium market maintains a trend of increasing supply and demand. The supply of lithium resources is expected to reach 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%, while the demand is expected to reach 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. With the supply growth slightly slower than the demand, the surplus level narrows, and the central price of lithium price fluctuations moves up [4][157]. - Although the year - on - year growth rate of domestic new - energy passenger vehicle sales is not good, the average battery loading per vehicle is increasing steadily. The demand for lithium in this part can still maintain a 19% positive growth. The breakthrough in battery technology in the Q1 press conferences of domestic car companies may drive the demand for electric vehicles. The export of new - energy vehicles may bring more expectations, and the new - energy penetration rate of overseas passenger and commercial vehicles may be boosted due to the sharp rise in international oil prices. The growth rate of energy storage is still promising, with an average annual growth rate of new energy storage installations of 51% from 2025 - 2027 and 47% from 2026 - 2030 [4][153]. - The current absolute futures price has given profits compared with the cash - flow cost, but the fundamental expectation of tightening lithium carbonate supply and expanding overseas demand conflicts with the current weak macro - economic expectation, making the profit vulnerable. The subsequent focus should be on inventory changes, which can support the lithium price to a certain extent [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 Supply Outlook - In 2026, the lithium market still faces the situation that some mines have not resumed production and new production capacities need to ramp up. The export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as of mid - March, which may tighten the supply of tradable lithium ore. The total output in 2026 is expected to be 1.96 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (excluding hand - mined ore and recycled volume), a year - on - year increase of 24% [4]. 2026 Demand Outlook - New - energy passenger vehicles: As of March 15, 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic new - energy passenger vehicle sales is not good, but the average battery loading per vehicle is increasing. As of February 2026, the average battery loading of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid passenger vehicles increased by 22% and 38% year - on - year respectively. The demand for lithium in this part can maintain a 19% positive growth. The battery technology breakthroughs in car companies' press conferences in Q1 may drive the demand for electric vehicles. As of January 2026, the cumulative export of Chinese new - energy passenger vehicles reached 286,000, a year - on - year increase of 103.62%. The new - energy penetration rate of overseas passenger and commercial vehicles may be boosted by the sharp rise in international oil prices [4][125][153]. - Energy storage: If the new installation scale reaches 180GW by the end of 2027, the average annual growth rate of new energy storage installations from 2025 - 2027 may reach 51%. From 2026 - 2030, the average annual growth rate of new energy storage installation power is 47%, and the actual growth rate may be higher [4][150][153]. 2026Q1 Review - After the Spring Festival, Ningde and other smelters resumed production, but the demand increase was limited, and the futures price gradually declined. The transaction price of lithium ore loosened, and the futures price dropped significantly during the day. Affected by macro - economic factors, the commodity market declined generally. The prices of lithium ore and lithium salt declined in a spiral. After the price of ore stopped falling, the market began to fluctuate sideways. During this period, the rumor of the shutdown of Jianxiawo was refuted. The supply in Jiangxi and Qinghai was frequently disturbed, and the market fluctuated more. After the shutdown of Jianxiawo was confirmed, the market limit - up. Speculative funds left the market, and the market limit - down. The energy storage demand exploded, and the power battery market was not in the off - season. Some lithium ore listed companies publicly expressed their optimism about the demand, and the price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly. The resumption time of Jianxiawo was continuously postponed, and the lithium price fluctuated frequently around this disturbance. The exchange's strict supervision increased the upward pressure on the lithium price. Coupled with the rapid decline of non - ferrous and precious metal prices during the day, the lithium price followed the decline. After the Spring Festival, Zimbabwe imposed an export ban, and the supply of lithium carbonate was expected to tighten further. The lithium price fluctuated at a high level, but affected by the war between the US and Iran, the macro - economy weakened, and the lithium price lacked upward momentum [7]. Supply: Lithium Ore Resources Continue to Be Released, Pay Attention to Supply Chain Risks - Australian lithium mines: According to the announcements of Australian mining companies in Q4 of 2025, the production guidance of lithium spodumene in FY26 has been steadily increased. The production of Australian lithium mines is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026, with an expected annual output of 530,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, a month - on - month increase of 7% [102][107]. - African lithium mines: The export ban in Zimbabwe has not been resolved as of March 18, which may cause quarterly - level supply shortages of global lithium resources. The output of African lithium mines is expected to reach 340,000 tons (in terms of LCE) in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 44% [108][110]. - South American salt lakes: The first - production plans of some projects have been advanced to 2026. The supply in 2026 is expected to reach 517,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The proportion of lithium production from Argentine salt lakes is expected to increase [111][113]. - Domestic lithium resources: The output of domestic lithium resources is still relatively loose. In 2026, the domestic supply is expected to reach 460,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, a year - on - year increase of 31%. The resumption of production of Jianxiawo and the supply from Zimbabwe need to be monitored [114][117]. Demand: The Overseas Incremental Space May Expand - New - energy passenger vehicles: Although the year - on - year growth rate of domestic new - energy passenger vehicle sales is not good, the average battery loading per vehicle is increasing, and the demand for lithium can maintain positive growth. The battery technology breakthroughs in car companies' press conferences in 2026 may drive the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. The export of new - energy passenger vehicles is growing rapidly, and the growth rate of plug - in hybrid exports is particularly prominent [125][128][135]. - New - energy commercial vehicles: The domestic new - energy commercial vehicle market has great growth potential. Overseas, considering the sharp rise in international diesel prices, the demand for new - energy commercial vehicles may increase. The battery loading of new - energy commercial vehicles is increasing, and the demand for lithium carbonate has shown a high - growth trend [142][146]. - Energy storage: The cost of energy - storage batteries decreased in Q1 of 2026. The domestic new - energy storage plan aims to reach 18GW by the end of 2027, with an average annual growth rate of 51% from 2025 - 2027. From 2026 - 2030, the average annual growth rate of new energy storage installation power is 47%, and the actual growth rate may be higher [149][150]. Annual Balance Sheet - In 2026, the global lithium market maintains a trend of increasing supply and demand. The supply of lithium resources is expected to reach 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%, while the demand is expected to reach 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. The surplus level narrows, and the central price of lithium price fluctuations moves up [155][157].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 1.02% to 149,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate fell 2,500 yuan/ton to 146,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell 2,500 yuan/ton to 143,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 3,500 yuan/ton to 138,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 781 tons to 33,537 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons; the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated output of ternary materials in March increased by 19% to 84,360 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, other links decreasing by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and upstream inventory increasing by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly de - stocking speed has significantly slowed down, and the downstream inventory level has relatively and significantly rebounded. Therefore, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may lead to a weakening of downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long - term energy substitution logic has strengthened, and the stock market has reacted more strongly. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium - to - long term, the price center will still move upwards, so it is still advisable to consider bottom - fishing [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 149,040 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from March 20; the closing price of the continuous contract was 147,860 yuan/ton, up 2,860 yuan from March 20 [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,028 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 11,750 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 146,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 143,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 138,500 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 145,000 yuan/ton, down 3,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 127,050 yuan/ton, down 3,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 18.1 US dollars/kg, down 0.1 US dollars [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 108,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 13,536 yuan/ton, up 3,070 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 189,250 yuan/ton, down 1,550 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 52,680 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in the price of 523 square ternary cells (0.002 yuan/Wh) and square lithium iron phosphate cells (0.004 yuan/Wh) [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) Asia - domestic, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2026 [17][19][23]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese dioxide, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][40]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, 外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2026 [43]. 3.3 Team Members Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has won many awards [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant analyst awards [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She has won relevant analyst awards [48]. 3.4 Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. - Company phone: 021 - 80212222. - Fax: 021 - 80212200. - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979. - Zip code: 200127 [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Last Week's Review**: Affected by the sudden escalation of the geopolitical crisis between the US and Iran, global risk - aversion sentiment soared, causing sharp fluctuations in crude oil and the US dollar index, and a severe liquidity crunch in the commodity market. Funds fled from risky assets, leading to a decline in the main contract of lithium carbonate with reduced positions, and the spot and cost ends also fell synchronously. On Friday, after a brief calm, the main contract of the lithium carbonate market rebounded from the MA60 moving - average line but weakened again at the end of the session [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Macroscopically, as the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran enters a game stage, the market's over - reaction to the liquidity crisis is expected to continue. Fundamentally, the core contradiction of low inventory and high production scheduling in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. Once the liquidity crisis eases or there is a vacuum in geopolitical news, the futures market is expected to have a restorative rebound. However, short - term disturbances from geopolitical news should be vigilant, as the stability of funds is still fragile, and the lithium market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. It is not advisable to blindly chase up or sell down [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2026/3/20 | 2026/3/13 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 223 | 228 | - 5.00 | - 2.19% | US dollars/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 2175 | 2235 | - 60.00 | - 2.68% | US dollars/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 2445 | 2505 | - 60.00 | - 2.40% | US dollars/ton | | Spot exchange rate: US dollar to RMB | 6.901 | 6.903 | 0.00 | - 0.02% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 14.18 | 15.53 | - 1.35 | - 8.70% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 14.39 | 15.21 | - 0.82 | - 5.41% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 5.53 | 5.41 | 0.12 | 2.22% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 39.40 | 40.00 | - 0.60 | - 1.50% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 20.20 | 20.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 10,000 yuan/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 18.65 | 18.65 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 10,000 yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last Week's Market Analysis** - **Regulation and Delivery**: As of March 23, 2026, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange totaled 34,318 lots, and the holding scale of the main contract was 245,200 lots [7]. - **Supply Side** - **Production**: As of March 23, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 24,050 tons, a 1.39% increase from the previous period. In March, there was a lot of production resumption in China. In lithium extraction from spodumene, the production line maintenance in Sichuan in February ended in mid - March, and many mainstream lithium salt plants resumed full - load production around March 15. In Jiangxi, the resumption progress of projects such as the Jianxiawo Mine under CATL was the focus. In lithium extraction from salt lakes, with the temperature rising in Qinghai, the evaporation efficiency of salt lakes improved, and the output in March increased naturally compared with February [7]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: The total import of lithium ore was about 788,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The import from Australia was 309,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.18%; from Zimbabwe was about 132,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.85%; from Nigeria was about 80,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.12%. The import from South Africa increased significantly to 109,400 tons [8]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In February, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 26,426 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61% and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. The import from Chile was about 15,354 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, accounting for about 58.10%. The import from Argentina was 10,353 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.11%, accounting for about 39.18% [8]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Cathode Materials** - **Supply**: As of March 23, the weekly output of ternary materials was about 19,480 tons, with an operating rate of 49.34%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,050 tons, an 80 - ton increase from the previous period. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate was about 114,500 tons, with an operating rate of 89.55%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and the inventory was 26,975 tons, a 756 - ton decrease from the previous period. - **Price**: As of March 23, the price of ternary materials was relatively stable. The price of 6 - series ternary materials increased from 181,700 yuan/ton to 182,700 yuan/ton; the price of 8 - series increased from 201,700 yuan/ton to 205,700 yuan/ton; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 56,200 yuan/ton to 53,600 yuan/ton, and the price of energy - storage type decreased from 54,300 yuan/ton to 51,700 yuan/ton. The profits of ternary material enterprises improved, but the demand recovery was slightly less than expected. Lithium iron phosphate production was stable according to existing orders, and the leading enterprises had good operating conditions. - **Overall Situation**: The market gradually recovered in March. The power battery was affected by the decline in new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales in the short term, but the production scheduling in April was expected to be good. The domestic and foreign energy - storage orders were still full, and the downstream market activity recovered. It should be noted that in the short term, due to the "buy - on - rising" mentality, the demand side mainly made rigid - need purchases, and the substantial realization of benefits needed the intervention of buyers after the continuous decline of lithium prices [9]. - **New - Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic**: From March 1 - 15, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year and a 36% month - on - month increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. The post - holiday new - energy vehicle market was recovering rapidly. - **Overseas**: In February 2026, the US auto market data showed that the new - car sales were 1.18 million units, a 3.8% year - on - year decline. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized the comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition, and the "price war" in the new - energy vehicle industry that lasted for two years ended. The industry entered the "cost - driven price - increase" stage, and the new - energy vehicle market entered a new stage and would experience a painful reshuffle period. Overall, the consumption of new - energy vehicles was expected to climb slowly [10]. - **Inventory**: As of March 23, the factory inventory of lithium carbonate was 20,015 tons, a 225 - ton reduction from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 34,318 lots, a 2,085 - lot reduction from the previous week. The overall industry inventory level dropped below 99,000 tons, and some third - party data showed it dropped to about 98,900 tons. Once the downstream demand turned into actual purchases, the low inventory would fuel the price rebound [11]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Geopolitical issues bring capital disturbances, and lithium prices fluctuate widely. Macroscopically, as the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran enters a game stage, the market's over - reaction to the liquidity crisis is expected to continue. Fundamentally, the core contradiction of low inventory and high production scheduling in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. Once the liquidity crisis eases or there is a vacuum in geopolitical news, the futures market is expected to have a restorative rebound. However, short - term disturbances from geopolitical news should be vigilant, as the stability of funds is still fragile, and the lithium market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations. It is not advisable to blindly chase up or sell down [12] 3.3 Industry News - Vulcan Energy announced that the German Lionheart lithium project, which has obtained a production license, has been fully financed and entered the construction stage. The project aims to start production in 2028, with a designed annual production capacity of about 24,000 tons of lithium hydroxide monohydrate and will produce renewable energy by - products [13]. - Fulin Jinggong's subsidiary plans to invest 1.004 billion yuan to promote the construction of a project with an annual output of 500,000 tons of high - end energy - storage lithium iron phosphate [13]. - On March 16, 2026, Xi'an Lanxiao Technology New Material Co., Ltd. announced the termination of the sales contract for a 3,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate extraction device with Argentina's HANACOLLA S.A. due to changes in the project's overall plan. HANACOLLA needs to pay 1.5 million US dollars to Lanxiao Technology within 3 working days after signing the termination agreement and gives up the right to require the company to refund the 2.5 - million - US - dollar advance payment [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other aspects, with data sources from iFinD, Baichuan Yingfu, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (March 13 - 20), lithium salt prices fluctuated and declined. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 5.4% to 143,900 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6.3% and 6.1% to 149,000 and 146,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide followed the trend [12]. - The supply side has multiple factors. In Zimbabwe, the situation may be more pessimistic than expected. Core Lithium in Australia plans to restart the Finniss lithium mine, adding 2,000 tons of LCE supply in Q4. The arrival of lithium ore in March continued to decrease, while the load of the lithium carbonate pyroxene production line increased, and the ore end remained in a tight pattern [2][14]. - On the demand side, although the new - energy vehicle sales data in the first two weeks of March were still poor year - on - year, there were signs of month - on - month improvement. According to the prediction of the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in March could reach 900,000, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The new car launch has a great impact on the monthly sales rhythm [2][15]. - This week, SMM's inventory decreased by 86 tons, and the de - stocking amplitude narrowed significantly. The overall inventory days were 27.7 days. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate will maintain a tight balance from March to April. In the short term, the production schedules of cathodes and cells are good, providing support for the direct demand for lithium carbonate. In the long term, the narrative of new - energy replacing old energy under the Middle East conflict provides support. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips after corrections [3][16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lithium Carbonate Weekly De - stocking Narrows, and Power Demand Improves Month - on - Month - **Price Changes**: Lithium salt prices fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 5.4% to 143,900 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6.3% and 6.1% to 149,000 and 146,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide also followed the decline [12]. - **Supply Side**: In Zimbabwe, the local government still hopes to promote investment and construction in the downstream processing sector. The situation may be more pessimistic than expected. Core Lithium in Australia plans to restart the Finniss lithium mine, adding 2,000 tons of LCE supply in Q4. The arrival of lithium ore in March continued to decrease, and the lithium ore was mainly in a de - stocking state, with the ore end remaining tight [2][14]. - **Demand Side**: The new - energy vehicle sales data in the first two weeks of March were still poor year - on - year, but there were signs of month - on - month improvement. According to the prediction of the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in March could reach 900,000, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The new car launch has a great impact on the monthly sales rhythm [2][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: This week, SMM's inventory decreased by 86 tons, and the de - stocking amplitude narrowed significantly. The overall inventory days were 27.7 days. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate will maintain a tight balance from March to April. The actual inventory of lithium carbonate may be larger than the SMM statistics. Downstream and spot - futures traders perceive the spot market as loose, and the basis and monthly spread do not show obvious strengthening [3][16]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - The Jiangxi Provincial Mineral Resources Security Service Center issued an announcement to select "prospecting right and mining right evaluation" institutions for the evaluation of the transfer income of the exploited resource reserves of five mining rights [17]. - Core Lithium completed a A$120 million financing, finalizing the equity financing part of the restart of the Finniss lithium mine. The combined equity and strategic financing enables Core Lithium to fully fund the restart of the Finniss lithium mine, with the total restart financing portfolio exceeding A$300 million [17] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: The Price Trends of Ore and Salt are Consistent - The report provides data on the spot average price of lithium concentrate, showing a decline [13] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The De - stocking Amplitude Slows Down - The report presents data on lithium ore sample monthly inventory, GFEX lithium carbonate main contract closing price, GFEX lithium carbonate term structure, domestic lithium carbonate weekly output, SMM lithium carbonate weekly inventory, domestic lithium carbonate spot average price and electrical - industrial price difference, lithium carbonate basis, domestic lithium hydroxide spot average price, domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference, lithium salt factory theoretical production profit, Chile's monthly export volume of lithium carbonate to China, China's lithium carbonate import volume, South America's export volume of lithium carbonate to China, Chile's shipment volume of lithium sulfate to China, and Chile's average export price of lithium carbonate to various countries [13][27][39] 3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: The Demand in March Still has Support - The report provides data on the monthly output of SMM ternary materials, SMM lithium iron phosphate monthly output, lithium iron phosphate price trend, lithium iron phosphate battery cell (power type) average price, ternary material price trend, cobalt - acid lithium price trend, and cobalt - acid lithium battery cell (consumer type) average price [45][51][57] 3.4 Terminal: Pay Attention to the Subsequent Power Sales Situation - The report presents data on China's power battery installation volume and year - on - year growth rate, China's power battery monthly installation proportion, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales year - on - year growth rate, and China's new - energy vehicle penetration rate [60][63][64]