Key Takeaways RGTI is integrating its quantum systems into hybrid AI environments, including support for NVIDIA's NVQLink.RGTI expanded academic and government ties with MSU and India's C-DAC to boost R&D and talent.RGTI targets 150 qubits by late 2026 and 1,000 qubits by 2027.Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is increasingly positioning itself at the intersection of quantum hardware, AI supercomputing and public-private research ecosystems. RGTI is embedding its systems into broader hybrid computing environments. S ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing presents a significant opportunity for investors, particularly through established tech giants rather than pure plays [1][2][3] - Major tech companies are heavily investing in infrastructure to support AI and are also exploring quantum computing as a complementary technology [2][19] Company Summaries Alphabet - Alphabet is recognized as a leading opportunity among major AI stocks, with a diverse ecosystem that includes internet search, advertising, cloud computing, and custom chip design [6][19] - The company is investing in quantum computing through its quantum processor, Willow, which is currently used for simulations against supercomputers [9][10] - Alphabet's integration of AI across its services positions it well to commercialize quantum computing applications in the future [10][19] Nvidia - Nvidia is a key player in the AI movement, providing GPUs and software that are central to generative AI development [11][19] - The company is exploring quantum AI opportunities with products like NVQLink and an alternate version of CUDA for hybrid computing environments [13][14] - Nvidia's strategy focuses on bridging traditional and quantum computing rather than investing heavily in supercomputers [14][19] Amazon - Amazon's AI ecosystem mirrors that of Alphabet, with significant revenue from e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising [16][19] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest cloud platform and is a primary source of AI growth for the company [17][19] - The company has developed its own quantum processing chip, Ocelot, and offers a quantum computing architecture called Amazon Bracket within AWS [18][19] Investment Themes - The analysis emphasizes that Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon have established successful AI businesses, allowing them to explore quantum computing without it being a core growth strategy [19][20] - AI is expected to drive growth for these companies in the coming years, providing a dual upside for investors as quantum applications are developed [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is positioned to profit in the quantum computing market by providing essential tools and services rather than developing quantum computers itself, similar to the "pick-and-shovel" investment strategy during the gold rush [1][2]. Quantum Computing Market Landscape - Major tech companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are competing to develop large-scale quantum computers, while Nvidia is not directly involved in this race [3]. - Despite not being a direct competitor, Nvidia has a significant interest in quantum computing and can generate revenue without waiting for the technology to mature [4]. Nvidia's Quantum Simulation Solutions - Nvidia offers a solution for quantum simulation using its GPUs on classical computers, addressing the challenge of limited and expensive access to quantum processing units (QPUs) [5]. - Approximately 75% of organizations utilizing QPUs are employing Nvidia's CUDA-Q platform for quantum simulation [5]. Integration with Cloud Services - Three of the four largest cloud service providers—Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle Cloud—have integrated Nvidia Quantum Cloud into their platforms, with AWS being the notable exception [6]. Hybrid Quantum-Classical Systems - Nvidia anticipates that most practical quantum computers will be hybrid systems combining QPUs with classical supercomputers [7]. - The company is addressing the challenges posed by qubits, which require complex calibration and control, by leveraging its GPUs and developing NVQLink, a bridge between QPUs and GPUs [8][9]. Strategic Positioning and Revenue Generation - Nvidia's strategy in quantum computing mirrors its successful approach in artificial intelligence, where it provides the necessary chips and software tools rather than competing directly [10][11]. - The company reported revenue of $57 billion in Q3 2025 and projects $65 billion for the next quarter, indicating that its strategy in AI is yielding substantial returns [12].

Core Insights - Quantum technology is a strategic emerging field crucial for national information security, experiencing rapid market growth under national strategic guidance, with China's market size projected to grow from 4.523 billion yuan in 2015 to 13.104 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 12.55% [1][14] - Significant breakthroughs in quantum technology are anticipated globally in 2024, transitioning from theoretical research to practical applications, with advancements in quantum computing platforms and quantum communication systems [1][14] - The development of quantum technology is expected to drive the next technological revolution, providing new tools and perspectives for exploring the unknown [1][14] Industry Overview - Quantum technology integrates principles of quantum mechanics with information science, computing, and materials science, focusing on information acquisition, processing, and transmission through quantum effects [4][13] - The industry primarily encompasses three core areas: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement [4][13] Industry Development History - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of advancing quantum technology, with strategic planning and support increasing since 2020 [6][9] - Notable achievements include the successful development of the "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" quantum computing prototype in March 2025, positioning China among the global leaders in superconducting quantum computing [1][7] - Recent advancements include the establishment of a 300-kilometer quantum direct communication network, validating the feasibility of long-distance secure communication [1][7] Industry Policies - The Chinese government has prioritized quantum technology in its "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to implement significant national projects in frontier fields like quantum information [9][10] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to further promote quantum technology as a new economic growth point, alongside other emerging industries [9][10] Industry Value Chain - The quantum technology industry chain includes upstream components and technology development, midstream core equipment and system development, and downstream applications across various sectors such as cloud computing, finance, and defense [10][11] Market Size and Trends - The global quantum technology market is projected to reach $8.02 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.77%, and is expected to grow to $11.93 billion by 2025 [13] - Quantum computing dominates the market, accounting for 64.92% of the total, with North America leading in technological breakthroughs and industry applications [13][14] Key Companies - Major players in the Chinese quantum technology sector include China Great Wall Technology Group, Keda Technology, State Grid Information Communication, and others, contributing to a diverse competitive landscape [2][16] - China Great Wall Technology has reported significant growth in its computing industry, achieving a revenue of 5.148 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.63% [16] - Wuhan Guangxun Technology focuses on optical electronic devices and has seen a substantial increase in revenue from its data and access business, growing by 149.16% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [16][17] Future Development Trends - Quantum computing is expected to overcome hardware performance bottlenecks, enhancing stability and developing new quantum bit architectures [17] - Quantum communication aims to establish broader and faster quantum key distribution networks, facilitating the construction of a future quantum internet [18] - Quantum measurement technology is anticipated to achieve significant precision improvements, expanding its applications in various fields [19]

Group 1 - Quantum stocks have experienced significant declines amid a tech market pullback, with some analysts suggesting the AI trade may be in a bubble [1][2] - Stocks like D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have plunged 55-60% from their recent peaks after more than doubling in value in a short period [2][6] - Nvidia's strong quarterly results provided a temporary boost to speculative tech trades, but the overall market trend remains negative [3][4] Group 2 - Nvidia introduced NVQLink as a lower-risk quantum product, which may offer investors a safer way to engage with quantum technology [4][6] - Investors are advised to monitor the $18-20 support range for D-Wave Quantum, as breaking this level could lead to further declines [5][6] - IBM has unveiled new quantum processors, Quantum Nighthawk and Quantum Loom, as part of its ongoing quantum roadmap [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues in Q3 2025 were $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million in Q3 2024, impacted by the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [12] - Gross margins in Q3 2025 were 21%, compared to 51% in Q3 2024, due to revenue composition and pricing variability [12][13] - Operating loss for Q3 2025 was $20.5 million, compared to $17.3 million in the prior year [14] - GAAP net loss for Q3 2025 was higher than in Q3 2024, primarily due to non-cash changes in fair value of derivative liabilities [15] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had approximately $558.9 million in cash and equivalents, with no debt [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company announced purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera quantum computing systems, which are upgradable [6][7] - A three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) was announced to advance superconducting quantum networking [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The expiration of the National Quantum Initiative and its pending reauthorization in the U.S. Congress impacted revenue [12] - The company is engaged with various academic and government institutions to advance quantum computing capabilities [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system by the end of 2025, with a roadmap to deploy a 150+ qubit system by the end of 2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system by the end of 2027 [5][6] - The company is focusing on public-private partnerships to advance quantum technologies [9] - The company intends to open an Italian subsidiary to pursue business opportunities in the region [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future sales driven by recent contracts and collaborations, despite current revenue challenges [12][15] - The company is focused on achieving quantum advantage within the next three to five years, targeting 1,000 qubits with 99.9% fidelity [18][22] - Management is optimistic about potential funding increases for quantum initiatives from the U.S. government [88][89] Other Important Information - The company is exploring options for a new chip fab facility to enhance capabilities beyond the current 150 mm fab [63][66] - The potential investment for a new quantum fab could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars, significantly less than a traditional CMOS fab [66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about DARPA phase B and the feedback received? - Management noted that while not selected for phase B, constructive feedback was received, focusing on error correction and long-range coupling [17][18] Question: What is the comfort level for achieving 99% fidelity by 2027? - Management expressed confidence in achieving 99.7% fidelity at 150+ qubits by 2026 and 99.8% at 1,000 qubits by 2027 [22][23] Question: Will the 1,000-qubit system be chiplet-based? - The plan is to use 36-qubit chiplets for the 1,000-qubit system, with no significant challenges anticipated for long-range coupling [28][30] Question: How will revenue recognition work for the Novera sales? - Revenue for the two Novera systems will be recognized upon shipment, expected in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 [32] Question: What is the expected gross margin profile moving forward? - Management indicated that margins may improve with upcoming sales, particularly from Novera systems [71] Question: What types of applications will the 1,000-qubit system run? - The system is expected to handle complex applications like drug discovery and financial forecasting, which current CPUs and GPUs struggle with [76][77] Question: How does the recent funding from the Energy Department affect the business? - The reinstatement of the National Quantum Initiative funding is seen as a positive step, although discussions for higher funding amounts are ongoing [88][89]

Group 1 - The AI industry revolution is ongoing, with strong demand for computing power and promising applications. The national "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative. The current global context is likened to the industrial revolution, suggesting a long-term perspective is necessary to observe the impact of AI on computing power demand and applications [1][2] - Capital expenditure by telecom operators is expected to decline, while 6G research and development is accelerating. In 2024, telecom operators' capital expenditure is projected to decrease, following a decline that began in 2023. This trend is anticipated to continue until the commercial use of 6G. Research on 6G wireless interfaces and core network architecture commenced in June 2025, with the R21 version timeline expected to be finalized by June 2026. Despite this, telecom operators are increasing investments in AI computing power, suggesting a potential stabilization and recovery in overall capital expenditure by 2027 or later [1][2] Group 2 - Industrial policies are leading the way, with tech giants contributing to the industry's rapid advancement. China places significant emphasis on quantum technology, while the U.S. also prioritizes its development and restricts investments in quantum technology in China. Recently, NVIDIA launched NVQLink to connect GPUs with quantum processors. There is a recommendation to closely monitor advancements in the quantum computing industry, particularly in areas such as dilution refrigerators and low-temperature coaxial cables [2] - Several companies are highlighted as having significant investment potential, considering industry trends, performance potential, valuation levels, trading volatility, and the likelihood of turning points or exceeding expectations. The companies listed as top recommendations for 2026 include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie Technology, Tianfu Communication, Yingweike, Ruijie Network, ZTE Corporation, Runze Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Zhongtian Technology [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound on November 10, with the Nasdaq leading the gains, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks like Nvidia, which saw its largest single-day increase since April [2] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On November 10, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.27%, the Dow Jones increased by 0.81%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.54% [2] - Nvidia's stock surged by 5.79%, marking its largest single-day gain since April, closing at $199.05 per share with a total market capitalization of approximately $4.84 trillion [2] Group 2: Nvidia's Recent Developments - Nvidia's stock reached an all-time high of $212.19 per share on October 29, with a market cap of $5.156 trillion, becoming the first company to surpass a $5 trillion valuation [2] - Nvidia announced a partnership with Deutsche Telekom on November 4 to build an AI computing center in Munich, deploying up to 10,000 GPUs with an investment of around €1 billion, expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2026 [2] Group 3: Strategic Investments and Collaborations - Nvidia has reached agreements with Samsung, Hyundai Motor Group, and SK Group to supply over 260,000 accelerated chips for AI projects in South Korea [3] - The company plans to invest up to $1 billion in AI company Poolside and has also invested $1 billion in Nokia to enhance connectivity solutions [4] - Nvidia is collaborating with Uber to develop an autonomous driving platform, aiming to deploy approximately 100,000 self-driving vehicles by 2027, utilizing its latest DRIVE AGX Hyperion 10 platform [5]

Group 1 - The AI industry revolution is ongoing, with strong demand for computing power and promising applications [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] - The telecommunications operators' capital expenditure is expected to decline, but the research on 6G technology has commenced, indicating potential recovery in the future [2] Group 2 - The focus on quantum technology is increasing in both China and the U.S., with significant developments such as NVIDIA's NVQLink for connecting GPUs to quantum processors [3] - The report highlights several companies with investment potential, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie Technology, and others, as key recommendations for 2026 [4]

Group 1 - Rigetti Computing is a leading pure-play company in quantum computing, presenting significant investment opportunities but also high risks due to the lack of a backup business model [1] - The company recently sold two Novera quantum computing systems for a total of $5.7 million, indicating a viable product and leadership in the market [4] - Rigetti's systems are compatible with Nvidia's NVQLink, which enhances its position in the quantum computing landscape [5][8] Group 2 - The launch of Nvidia's NVQLink suggests that quantum computing integration into existing infrastructure may happen sooner than expected, making Rigetti an attractive investment [6] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective regarding Rigetti's stock, as useful quantum computing is still a few years away [7]