Since the start of 2025, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has been one of the best-performing big tech stocks on the market. The stock is up over 170% in that time (through Jan. 22), with a large chunk of that gain coming after mid-September. Like many tech companies, Intel can thank the current artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle for much of this turnaround. As the hardware side of AI becomes more vital with hyperscalers (companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon) writing big checks, semiconductor companie ...

Ever since the Trump administration took a 10% stake in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) in August 2025, shares of the chipmaker have skyrocketed by more than 70% -- from $24 per share to about $43 at this writing. This year alone, Intel stock has climbed 15% year to date. It's not just the investment by the U.S. government that has fueled Intel, as it also got a $5 billion investment from Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to partner on making chips for data centers and PCs. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team ju ...

Group 1: Stanley Druckenmiller's Investment Moves - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire stake in Broadcom and bought shares of MercadoLibre in the third quarter [1][2] - Broadcom has a strong presence in networking chips and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), holding over 80% market share in Ethernet switching and routing chips [4][5] - MercadoLibre operates the largest commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, accounting for 28% of online retail sales in the region in 2024, with projections to reach 30% by 2026 [10] Group 2: Broadcom's Financial Performance - Broadcom reported a 28% increase in revenue to $18 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by strong demand for AI semiconductors [6] - Non-GAAP net income increased 37% to $1.95 per diluted share [6] - Wall Street expects Broadcom's adjusted earnings to grow 42% annually over the next two years, with a median target price of $461 per share, implying a 35% upside from its current price of $342 [9] Group 3: MercadoLibre's Financial Performance - MercadoLibre's revenue increased 39% to $7.4 billion in the third quarter, with commerce and fintech segments growing by 33% and 49% respectively [13] - The company has seen a 29% increase in unique buyers in Brazil and a 42% increase in items sold, indicating strong growth [15] - Wall Street expects MercadoLibre's earnings to increase at 32% annually over the next three years, with a median target price of $2,842 per share, implying a 42% upside from its current price of $1,998 [16]

Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO).ProfileBroadcom is one of the world’s leading semiconductor and infrastructure software companies, with dominant positions across custom AI accelerators, networking chips, wireless components, and mainframe software. The company benefits from deep integration with hyperscalers, telecom operators, and enterprise customers. Broadcom’s portfolio spans high-margin chipsets, mission-critica ...

Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology is positioned for significant growth in the AI semiconductor market, with expectations for improved stock performance in 2026 due to strong revenue growth and a solid customer base [1][3]. Financial Performance - Marvell reported a 37% year-over-year increase in revenue to $2.1 billion for fiscal Q3 2026, with non-GAAP earnings rising by nearly 77% to $0.76 per share [5]. - The data center business was the largest growth driver, achieving a 38% year-over-year revenue increase and contributing nearly 75% to the company's total revenue [7]. Growth Drivers - Marvell anticipates sustained growth in its data center business, supported by new customer programs and high-volume custom designs expected to contribute significantly from fiscal 2028 [8]. - The company has secured design wins for its custom AI chips in over 20 sockets, with more than 50 opportunities for additional design wins across 10 customers [9]. Strategic Acquisitions - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI for $3.25 billion is expected to enhance its AI capabilities, with anticipated contributions to revenue starting in the second half of fiscal 2028, projected to reach an annualized run rate of $500 million by Q4 fiscal 2028 [10][12]. - Celestial AI's photonic fabric technology is noted for its efficiency and effectiveness in AI data center applications, potentially doubling its revenue contribution by Q4 fiscal 2029 [11][12]. Valuation and Market Outlook - Marvell's stock trades at an attractive valuation of 35 times earnings, with a recent 8% increase following its quarterly report indicating growing investor interest [13]. - Analysts forecast a 25% increase in earnings for fiscal 2027, with a substantial year-over-year increase of 32% expected in the current quarter [14]. - Projected earnings for fiscal 2026 are $2.84 per share, with potential growth to $3.70 per share in the following year, suggesting a target stock price of $126, representing a 31% increase from current levels [15].

Core Insights - Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher, founded a hedge fund named Situational Awareness in 2024, focusing on artificial general intelligence (AGI) trends [3][7][20] - The fund's investment strategy has raised eyebrows, particularly its short positions on major AI companies like Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom, despite Aschenbrenner's previous bullish stance on AI [4][6][8][11] Investment Strategy - Situational Awareness maintained a significant long position in Intel, accounting for 16.41% of the portfolio, while simultaneously shorting Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom [12][10] - The fund's short positions included put options on Nvidia (6.95% of the portfolio), Broadcom (1.77%), and TSMC (1.76%), indicating a strategic shift in Aschenbrenner's outlook on these companies [10][11] Market Context - The hedge fund's moves come amid uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the AI boom, with investors closely monitoring major technology companies [5] - Aschenbrenner's predictions suggest a rapid advancement towards AGI by 2027, with significant growth in AI training clusters expected, which could impact the semiconductor industry [7][9] Company-Specific Insights - Aschenbrenner's shift from a bullish to a bearish position on Broadcom occurred within a short timeframe, indicating a potential reevaluation of the company's prospects [11] - The decision to maintain a long position in Intel may be influenced by the recent leadership change with Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, as well as expectations surrounding Intel's new 18A node technology [13][14] Future Outlook - The hedge fund's contrarian bets and Aschenbrenner's status as an AGI thought leader suggest that Situational Awareness will be a fund to watch for investors interested in AI trends [16]

Core Insights - Marvell Technology's shares experienced an 8% decline after initial excitement regarding potential acquisition interest from SoftBank diminished [1][2] - Reports indicated that while SoftBank had previously explored acquiring Marvell, there are currently no active negotiations, which tempered investor optimism [2] - The stock market's reaction suggests that while the news is significant, it does not fundamentally alter the market's perception of Marvell's business [4] Financial Performance - Marvell's stock has shown extreme volatility, with over 40 price movements greater than 5% in the past year [4] - Prior to the recent decline, the stock had gained 5.8% due to positive anticipation for an upcoming earnings report, with earnings expected to reach $0.74 per share, a 72.09% increase year-over-year [5] - Revenue is projected to rise by 35.94% to $2.06 billion, indicating strong business performance [5] Stock Performance Overview - Year-to-date, Marvell Technology's shares are down 22.6%, currently trading at $87.89, which is 30.3% below its 52-week high of $126.06 [6] - An investment of $1,000 in Marvell shares five years ago would now be worth $2,082, reflecting a positive long-term growth trajectory despite recent volatility [6]

Core Insights - Nvidia has been the dominant player in the AI semiconductor market, holding an estimated 80% market share, but faces emerging competition that could challenge its position [2][12] - Broadcom is positioning itself as a significant competitor in the AI chip market, particularly with its custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) designed for AI inference applications [4][8] Company Performance - Nvidia reported $41 billion in revenue in the last quarter, while Broadcom's AI revenue was $5.2 billion, indicating a substantial gap [4] - Broadcom's AI revenue grew by 63% year-over-year, surpassing Nvidia's 56% growth in data center revenue, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [6][12] Market Trends - The demand for AI inference applications is increasing, outpacing the need for AI model training, which is beneficial for Broadcom's custom processors [7][8] - By 2030, it is projected that 80% of chips performing AI inference tasks will be ASICs, a significant increase from 15% last year, indicating a growing market for Broadcom [12] Strategic Partnerships - Broadcom has secured a deal with OpenAI to design and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI processors from 2026 to 2029, potentially adding $100 billion to its revenue during this period [10][11] - The company has a strong revenue backlog of $110 billion, which is expected to grow further due to recent contracts, including the one with OpenAI [11] Competitive Positioning - Broadcom holds a 70% share in the custom AI processor market and aims to increase its overall AI chip market share to 24% by 2027, more than doubling its estimated share of 11% in 2025 [13] - The company's growth potential is underscored by its price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55, indicating it may be undervalued relative to its growth prospects [15][16]

Core Insights - Broadcom has experienced a significant turnaround after a month-long decline, primarily driven by a new deal with OpenAI for AI chips, which resulted in a 10% increase in stock price in one day [1][3]. Company Performance - Broadcom's stock reached an all-time high of nearly $369 on September 9, but subsequently fell around 12% by October 10 due to market reactions to CEO Hock Tan's AI-incentivized pay package [2]. - The recent deal with OpenAI, involving the deployment of ten gigawatts (GW) of custom AI accelerators, is expected to generate billions in new sales for Broadcom [3][4]. Competitive Position - The size of Broadcom's deal with OpenAI matches the 10 GW agreement OpenAI has with NVIDIA and surpasses the 6 GW deal with AMD, indicating Broadcom's strong position in the AI chip market [4]. - Broadcom will supply both custom AI XPUs and networking chips, which are crucial for AI workloads, highlighting the significance of this comprehensive deal [5][6]. Financial Outlook - Analysts had previously underestimated Broadcom's potential, with a recent Q3 earnings call revealing the addition of two major hyperscaler customers, including OpenAI [9][10]. - The current stock price forecast for Broadcom is $372.33, suggesting a potential upside of over 13% based on recent analyst ratings [11][13]. - The consensus price target after the OpenAI announcement indicates a bullish outlook, with many targets set at $400 or higher [13].

Group 1 - The current bull market is primarily driven by artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, fueled by significant spending from major tech companies and investor enthusiasm about AI's potential [1] - Despite the overall rise in AI stocks, some have underperformed in 2025, presenting potential investment opportunities for those looking to capitalize on the AI megatrend [2] - Marvell Technology specializes in chips for AI training and inference, with a notable increase in data center revenue, which reached $1.5 billion last quarter, up 69% year over year [5] Group 2 - Marvell's custom AI accelerator business is a key growth driver, collaborating with Amazon and Microsoft on custom AI chips [4][5] - Management has indicated that custom silicon revenue may decline in the next quarter, raising concerns about potential market share loss with Amazon [6] - The production timeline for Microsoft's next-generation Maia300 chip has been delayed to 2026, but it is expected to generate significant revenue for Marvell, potentially bringing in $2.4 billion next year and $10 billion to $12 billion by 2027 [7]