Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is currently in a consolidation phase. Last week, Indonesia's review of the compliance of port logistics in the nickel industrial park increased the risk of supply disruptions, and the rainy season in the main production areas poses a challenge to the stability of raw material supply. In December, the net import volume of nickel products increased significantly, while weak downstream demand led to a further accumulation of inventory contradictions. However, as nickel ore supply tightens and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the nickel price still has upward momentum [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Nickel Price and Market Sentiment**: The nickel price is in a volatile state. The Shanghai Nickel 2602 contract opened at 141,500 yuan/ton and closed at 148,010 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 4.71%. The overall market sentiment shows that although there are short - term supply disruptions, the long - term supply - demand situation may drive the price up [3][4][9] - **Nickel Ore**: As of January 26, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% were 30, 59, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1, 4, and 0 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also increased. The supply is affected by the rainy season, with mining and shipping in the main production areas severely disrupted. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased to 7.36 million wet tons as of January 23, a week - on - week decrease of 5.03% [33][36] - **Refined Nickel**: In December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output was 31,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7%. The inventory continued to accumulate, with the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increasing to 66,300 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.38%. The cost of electrolytic nickel production also increased slightly [45][49][56] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: As of January 26, the FOB prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased. In December 2025, Indonesia's MHP and high - grade nickel matte production increased, while the MHP import volume decreased and the high - grade nickel matte import volume increased [41] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased to 35,000 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47%. The market is in a state of supply - demand game, with some downstream manufacturers adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The cost of nickel salt production provides strong support, and the price is in a volatile and consolidating state [59][65] - **Ferronickel**: In December 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.07%. The supply side remains at a high level, and the price is approaching the upper limit that steel mills can bear, with a key contradiction between cost and profit [70][72] Stainless Steel Market - **Stainless Steel Price and Market Performance**: The stainless steel futures market was strong last week. The main contract opened at 14,290 yuan/ton and closed at 14,725 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.15%. The spot price of the 304 variety also increased [76] - **Stainless Steel Production**: In December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased to 3.2605 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. It is expected that the production in January 2026 will increase to 3.4065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [78] - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of January 23, the stainless steel social inventory decreased to 921,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The inventory is still on a downward trend, but the speed has slowed down [81] - **Stainless Steel Cost**: The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased to 14,009 yuan/ton as of January 27, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%, mainly due to the increase in raw material prices [85] Industry News - PT Gag Nikel in Indonesia was fined for environmental audit defects, and the regulatory mechanism is becoming stricter [7] - The Indonesian Commercial Competition Supervisory Commission pointed out monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the Morowali Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi and required the opening of port services and management [7] - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - The nickel mine of Vale Indonesia suspended mining activities due to the unapproved RKAB quota in 2026, but the smelting project is still in production [7] - Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. terminated the investment in the 40,000 - nickel - metal - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Macro aspect: US non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, with obvious signs of a weakening labor market. Inflation pressure eased, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was almost fully priced in, with a more optimistic view on the subsequent rate - cut path. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for two consecutive periods, and Lagarde sent hawkish signals, indicating that Europe's fight against inflation might be temporarily over, and trade friction risks should be watched out for [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remained abundant. APNI slightly lowered the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore by 0.75 percentage points, and the spot premium was stable. The price of ferronickel still had an upward trend, but steel mills' purchasing intensity was poor, and the upward process was slow. The pure nickel market was relatively quiet, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [3]. - Future outlook: With the warm macro - expectations and technical corrections, nickel prices are expected to rise. As the labor market weakens and inflation pressure eases, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September continues to rise. Technically, the main contract has reached the lower limit of the range, showing bullish signals. The industrial side has no obvious driving force, and although there is an expectation of cost loosening, a significant decline is not likely. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate upward under the joint drive of macro and technical factors [3][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price on September 12, 2025, was 121,980 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan/ton from September 5. LME nickel price was 15,391 dollars/ton, up 156 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1,851 tons to 23,529 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton, while that of Russian nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 961 yuan/nickel point, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 26,400 tons to 834,000 tons [4]. 2. Market Review - **Macro**: On September 9, the US non - farm benchmark correction data showed a significant weakening of the labor market, and inflation pressure eased. The market almost surely expected the Fed to start cutting rates in September, with some expecting a 50 - basis - point cut [5]. - **Nickel ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The APNI lowered the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore by 0.75 percentage points. Nickel iron plants were cautious in purchasing due to cost pressure, and the nickel ore price did not weaken significantly, with the spot premium remaining flat. Attention should be paid to the impact of the RKAB approval in October in Indonesia [6]. - **Pure nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate increased by 4.92 percentage points. In July, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly by about 703% year - on - year, mainly from Russia and Norway. The export scale in July increased by 1.73% year - on - year. As of September 4, the average monthly export profit of refined nickel had further declined. Overall, the supply of refined nickel was abundant, but the recent price increase of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia might limit the further increase in supply [7][8]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased from 945.5 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel pig iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's production was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 13.67% and 2.6% respectively. As of August 31, the ferronickel inventory decreased significantly. Although the ferronickel price continued to rise, the high - grade nickel matte price also strengthened, and it was expected that Indonesia's ferronickel production would remain stable month - on - month. In July, China's ferronickel imports increased by 1.83% year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia, and imports from Colombia decreased while those from New Caledonia increased [8]. - **Stainless steel**: In August, the production plan of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September, steel mills' production plans increased significantly month - on - month, but the increase in 300 - series stainless steel was limited, and it was difficult to drive a significant increase in ferronickel consumption [9]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased. In August, the metal output of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 5, the downstream and upstream inventory days of nickel sulfate remained stable. Overall, the supply and demand of the nickel sulfate market were both strong, but the growth rate of nickel sulfate production was lower than that of ternary materials, and the demand outlook was not optimistic [9]. - **New energy**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The decline was due to the high sales base in August 2024, the concentrated settlement of pre - ordered orders in early August 2025, and the new subsidy policy focusing more on quality rather than quantity, with limited subsidy amounts and quantities, making it difficult to drive significant consumption growth [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory increased by 1,851 tons to 23,529 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 205,084 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 11,517 tons to 248,613 tons [10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia seized part of the world's largest nickel mine due to violations of forestry license regulations, which was expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons [13]. - The energy and mineral resources department of Indonesia granted an operation license to PT Gag Nikel in Raja Ampat, West Papua [13]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (first phase), which decreased by about 0.75% compared with the reference price in August (second phase) [13]. - First Atlantic Nickel expanded the mineralization zone of natural nickel - iron ore in its Atlantic nickel project in Canada, which is expected to provide a cleaner and more efficient nickel source for the North American market [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22]