Asia Pacific Equity Research 07 November 2025 J P M O R G A N Nickel Dashboard Awaiting Indonesia's supply-side reforms LME nickel remained flat in October, averaging USD15,287/t (+0.01% m/m). At present, LME prices are trading closer to the crucial USD15k/t level, ~2.2% below the October peak of USD15,418/t, as persistent oversupply and uncertainty on future demand weighs on sentiment. Global visible inventory increased to ~279kmt (an addition of 27kmt q/q), with 20kmt flowing alone into LME warehouses in ...

Core Insights - Electra Battery Materials Corporation has initiated a new program to enhance mineral deposit modeling and feedstock integration at its Iron Creek cobalt-copper project in Idaho, aiming to support U.S. efforts to increase domestic critical mineral production and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - The financing for Electra's North American cobalt refinery has been completed, with construction set to resume, allowing the company to leverage its improved balance sheet for growth [2] - Electra is diversifying its feedstock base by sourcing domestic materials, with Idaho identified as a strategic location for cobalt and copper production, aligning with U.S. priorities for critical mineral independence [3] - A bench-scale lab program has been launched to evaluate cobalt feedstocks from various North American deposits, focusing on modifications to the existing refinery flowsheet to accommodate polymetallic sulfide concentrates [3][4] Group 2: Geological Research and Exploration - A new geological research program at Iron Creek is being conducted in collaboration with the Centre to Advance the Science of Exploration to Reclamation in Mining (CASERM), utilizing Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) hyperspectral imaging to identify mineralization zones [4][5] - The program aims to refine the geological model and guide future drilling campaigns by mapping the margins of mineralized zones [5][6] - Electra holds 10-year exploration permits covering 91 designated drill pad locations across Iron Creek and Ruby, with plans for a drilling restart in spring 2026 based on findings from the new scanning program [9] Group 3: Strategic Vision - Electra's long-term strategy focuses on building a vertically integrated solution for domestic supply-chain resilience, including cobalt sulfate refining and potential nickel refining and battery recycling [11][15] - The company aims to create a continental supply chain that starts with American mining and ends with refined cobalt sulfate for battery production in North America [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Nickel - **Key Trends**: Strong gains in nickel intermediary prices observed in September, with LME nickel averaging USD 15,310/ton (+1% month-over-month) supported by increased nickel sulfate prices and tighter MHP feedstock [1][3] Core Insights - **Nickel Prices**: Nickel sulfate prices rose approximately 5% due to tighter feedstock and increased demand for precursors, leading to a premium over LME prices of about 2%, the highest since October 2022 [1] - **Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)**: Average price for NPI was USD 11,940/ton, up 4% month-over-month, attributed to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining [1] - **Market Dynamics**: Anticipation of pre-buying by smelters ahead of the 2026 permit approval cycles and the Philippines' monsoon season could further influence prices [1] - **Ore Premiums**: High premiums for higher-grade saprolite nickel ore, with prices reaching USD 57-60/ton, compared to a 2Q average of USD 54/ton [1] Company-Specific Insights - **Preferred Picks**: ANTM is favored despite expected soft 3Q earnings due to gold supply issues, as its nickel business is expected to offset declines in gold performance [1] - **Neutral Ratings**: INCO and MDKA are rated Neutral; INCO's stock has outperformed the JCI by 14% in September, but future earnings growth is seen as overvalued [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: Indonesia's government has suspended 190 mining permits and imposed stricter environmental standards, which may slow refined supply growth to 5.2% year-over-year in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027 [3] - **Global Oversupply**: The Global Commodities team projects nickel to remain in oversupply by 200-300kt over the next two years due to shifts in battery chemistry and a slowdown in stainless steel demand [3] Financial Metrics - **Company Valuations**: - ANTM: Market Cap USD 5.0 billion, P/E 10.1x for FY25E, EPS growth 155.5% [4] - INCO: Market Cap USD 2.8 billion, P/E 61.6x for FY25E, EPS growth -23.1% [4] - MDKA: Market Cap USD 3.5 billion, P/E NM for FY25E, EPS growth NM [4] Additional Considerations - **Investor Sentiment**: Feedback indicates skepticism regarding INCO's future earnings, suggesting that current stock prices may reflect overly optimistic projections [3] - **Long-term Outlook**: The nickel market is expected to face challenges from evolving battery technologies and fluctuating demand from the stainless steel sector, which could impact pricing and profitability [3] Conclusion - The nickel industry is experiencing price increases driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, with specific companies like ANTM positioned favorably. However, broader market conditions suggest potential oversupply and challenges ahead, particularly for companies like INCO and MDKA.

Core Insights - Electra Battery Materials Corporation has appointed David Stetson to its Board of Directors, bringing extensive leadership experience in the natural resources sector [1][5] - Stetson previously served as CEO of Alpha Metallurgical Resources, where he increased the company's market capitalization from $50 million to over $4 billion and eliminated $800 million in debt [2] - The appointment is part of Electra's strategy to strengthen its financial foundation and enhance its role in North America's critical minerals supply chain [5][6] Company Update - Electra has closed a bridge financing of $2 million through the issuance of unsecured 90-day promissory notes to support operations during its restructuring [6] - The addition of Stetson to the Board is seen as a reinforcement of Electra's commitment to disciplined execution as it advances its transformation and growth strategy [6] - Electra is focused on developing North America's only cobalt sulfate refinery and aims to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains through onshoring critical minerals refining [7][8]