Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that New Oriental-S (09901) reported a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year, reaching $1.191 billion, surpassing market expectations by 3% and exceeding the company's previous guidance of 9% to 12% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit surged by 223% year-on-year to $89 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 62%, with a corresponding Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 7.5%, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the consensus estimate of 4.7% [1] - Haitong International raised the target price for New Oriental from HKD 49 to HKD 52 based on the upward revision of performance expectations, maintaining an outperform rating [1] Group 2 - The company has been able to capture market share despite a generally sluggish study abroad industry, achieving a 1% year-on-year growth in Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year, with expectations for this trend to continue into the next quarter [1] - The company is taking a conservative stance on Q4 performance due to the strong seasonal characteristics of the study abroad consulting business, anticipating a decline in study abroad revenue next year due to the overall industry situation and the merger of its exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses [1] - Haitong International noted that the company's cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures are showing continued effectiveness, with progress in optimizing teacher allocation and diversifying product offerings, indicating sustainable growth in the K12 business [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Haitong International indicates that New Oriental-S (09901) has exceeded market expectations with a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to $1.191 billion for Q2 of FY2026, surpassing the company's previous guidance of 9% to 12% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating profit increased significantly by 223% year-on-year to $89 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 62%, resulting in a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 7.5%, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the consensus estimate of 4.7% [1] - Haitong International has raised the target price for New Oriental from HKD 49 to HKD 52 based on the upward revision of performance expectations, maintaining an outperform rating [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Despite a generally sluggish study abroad industry due to ongoing macroeconomic and international uncertainties, the company has managed to capture market share with a 1% year-on-year growth in Q2 of FY2026, a trend expected to continue into the next quarter [1] - The company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, with progress noted in optimizing teacher allocation and diversifying product offerings, which include OMO, 1V1, small classes, and subject expansion [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company holds a cautious outlook for Q4 of FY2026 due to the strong seasonality of the study abroad consulting business, and anticipates a decline in study abroad revenue next year due to the overall industry situation and the merger of its exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses [1] - The management has shown a strong commitment to improving profitability in the study abroad segment, despite current revenue growth being maintained at a low double-digit rate [2]

该行指，观察到公司的降本增效措施持续生效，同时通过渠道调研发现，公司在师资配置优化、产品多 样性丰富方面均有进展，涵盖OMO、1V1、小班课及科目拓展等维度。该行认为公司K12业务的稳健增 长具备可持续性，留学业务虽营收承压，但公司有明确的提升该板块利润率的决心。尽管目前公司营收 维持低双位数增速，建议投资者更多关注利润端的增长表现，因为公司管理层已展现出为投资者创造回 报的坚定决心。 海通国际发表研报指，新东方2026财年次季总营收年增15%至11.91亿美元，超出市场一致预期3%，且 突破公司此前9%至12%的指引上限；Non-Gaap营业利润按年大增223%至8,900万美元，超出一致预期 62%，对应Non-Gaap营业利润率为7.5%，较一致预期的4.7%提升2.8个百分点。展望明年，受行业整体 局势尚未复苏、以及公司考培与留学咨询业务合并的影响，预计留学业务营收将出现下滑。基于业绩预 期上修，该行将其目标价由49港元上调至52港元，评级"优于大市"。 ...

3QFY26 K12业务营收有望加速增长，核心得益于留存率提升与寒假排课量增加 过去几个季度，公司坚持努力提升产品力与教学授课质量，高中及K9非学科业务的用户留存率实现显 著提升。考虑到今年春节时间较晚，今年寒假排课量多于去年。基于此，该行预测K12业务营收将同比 增长19%至8.15亿美元;其中高中业务同比增长18%，主要1V1及OMO助力，K9新业务，同比增23%，主 要受益于初中强劲复苏。 2QFY26业绩回顾 公司总营收同比增长15%至11.91亿美元，超出机构一致预期3%，且突破公司此前9%~12%的指引上 限。NonGaap营业利润同比大增223%至8900万美元，超出一致预期62%，对应Non-Gaap营业利润率为 7.5%，较一致预期的4.7%提升2.8个百分点。递延收入为21.615亿美元，同比增长10.2%，而1QFY26同 比增幅为10%。 海通国际发布研报称，维持新东方-S(09901)"优于大市"评级，对2026财年公司Non-Gaap NP仍采用18倍 PE进行估值，基于业绩预期上修，将目标价由49港币上调至52港币。该行观察到公司的降本增效措施 持续生效;同时通过渠道调研发现，公 ...

降本增效战略在后续季度将持续释放成效 海通国际主要观点如下： 3QFY26 K12业务营收有望加速增长，核心得益于留存率提升与寒假排课量增加 过去几个季度，公司坚持努力提升产品力与教学授课质量，高中及K9非学科业务的用户留存率实现显 著提升。考虑到今年春节时间较晚，今年寒假排课量多于去年。基于此，该行预测K12业务营收将同比 增长19%至8.15亿美元;其中高中业务同比增长18%，主要1V1及OMO助力，K9新业务，同比增23%，主 要受益于初中强劲复苏。 留学仍承压，进而拖累核心教育板块整体营收 在宏观与国际形势持续不稳定的背景下，整个留学行业表现低迷。凭借多年积累的用户心智占有率及强 劲的执行能力，公司在2Q 26财年持续抢占市场份额，仍实现1%的同比增长。该行预计这一趋势将延续 至下一季度，但受留学咨询业务强季节性特征影响，该行对2026财年第四季度业绩持偏保守态度。展望 明年，受行业整体局势尚未复苏、以及公司考培与留学咨询业务合并的影响，该行预计留学业务营收将 出现下滑。 2QFY26业绩回顾 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，维持新东方-S(09901)"优于大市"评级，对2026财年公司No ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [Table_Title] 2026 资金面， "低波"或是常态 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之十一 [Table_Summary] ► 2025 年，资金面"波"平浪静 2025 年，适度宽松的主基调下，资金面整体延续平稳，节奏上 呈现"先紧后松"的特征。整体可以分为两个阶段，阶段一：长端利率 快速下行，央行重提货币总闸门，通过暂停国债买卖操作，维持谨慎 投放，引导资金面整体维持紧平衡状态。阶段二：利率回归合理区 间，央行政策态度转为"适度宽松"。资金利率回归低位运行状态，绝 对水平逐步向政策利率（OMO）附近收敛，利率波幅也逐步收窄。 ► 资金低波的背后，货币框架之变革 资金波动整体收敛的背后，一方面是利率传导体系的转变。央行 通过调整利率走廊，引导短期利率运行区间逐步收窄。同时，将 OMO 利率确立为核心政策利率，强化其锚定作用。至此，我国利率 体系传导，逐渐从以MLF 为中枢的传导机制"MLF→LPR/DR→市场利 率"，转向"7 天逆回购利率→DR→市场利率"的新路径。 另一方面，是资金投放 ...

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net injection was 196.1 billion CNY, and MLF net injection was 300 billion CNY, leading to a continued loose liquidity environment[7] - DR001 and DR007 both reached new year-to-date lows, with DR001 averaging 1.35% and DR007 averaging 1.48% for August[19] - The liquidity injection for the month reached 600 billion CNY, reflecting the central bank's stabilizing attitude amid market volatility[19] Institutional Behavior - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 0.06 trillion CNY to 7.07 trillion CNY, with significant fluctuations observed on the last trading day of the month[15] - The new adjusted capital gap index fell to -630.2 billion CNY, the lowest level this year, indicating a slow pace of institutional cross-month activities[15] - The demand for interbank certificates of deposit remained stable, but the issuance success rate for various banks showed mixed results, with state-owned banks performing better[4] Government Debt and Financing - The expected government bond payment scale for next week is approximately 121.6 billion CNY, down from 211.4 billion CNY this week[20] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds reached 620.8 billion CNY, while new special bonds totaled 32,641 billion CNY[20] - The net financing scale for government bonds is projected to decrease to about 1.2 trillion CNY in September[20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the interbank currency market experienced an increase in trading volume while the balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and large commercial banks' average net lending balance falling [1][2][3] Group 2 - In July, the total trading volume in the currency market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily transaction decreased by 2.2% to 8.1 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank intensified liquidity provision, resulting in an overall balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased to 12.8 trillion yuan, down 2.1% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks fell by 4.0% [5] Group 3 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with total bond issuance in July at 5.29 trillion yuan, a decline of 0.6% from the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [6] - The bond market saw a fluctuation in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [8] - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with daily average transaction volume increasing by 44.8% in July [9]

Group 1 - The overall trading volume in the money market increased, while the average balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and the average net lending balance of large commercial banks falling [2][3][5] - In July, the total trading volume in the money market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily trading volume was 8.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% [2] - The central bank increased liquidity support, resulting in a generally balanced and loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] Group 2 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with government bond yields rising overall and the yield curve steepening [6][8] - In July, 5.29 trillion yuan of bonds were issued, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, while net financing increased by 169.5 billion yuan, a rise of 7.9% [6] - The bond market saw yields fluctuating upwards, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the curve steepening [8] Group 3 - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with an increase in trading volume [9] - In July, the average daily trading volume of RMB interest rate swaps increased by 44.8%, with a nominal principal total of 4.6 trillion yuan [9]

Economic Growth and Structure - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, showcasing a transition from scale expansion to quality improvement in economic growth [1][2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed over 50% to economic growth, indicating that policies focused on stabilizing employment and promoting income are effectively boosting demand [2][3] - CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting uneven demand recovery, but a mild inflation environment allows for macro policy adjustments [2][4] Investment Trends - High-tech industries continue to show robust growth, with sectors like information services and aerospace manufacturing significantly outpacing overall investment levels [2][3] - Infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year-on-year, supported by a rapid issuance of special bonds totaling over 2.1 trillion yuan, which is 667 billion yuan more than the same period last year [4][5] Consumption Dynamics - Retail sales of home appliances and communication devices grew by over 20% year-on-year, driven by policies like "trade-in for new" that stimulate consumer demand [3][4] - The improvement in living standards through increased fiscal spending in education, healthcare, and social security is expected to enhance consumer potential and create a positive cycle of consumption and economic growth [4][5] Policy Measures - Fiscal policy has been effectively implemented, with a focus on increasing spending in the livelihood sector, which has a direct impact on consumption [4][5] - Monetary policy has emphasized "stabilizing total volume and adjusting structure," with measures such as interest rate cuts leading to a reduction in the average loan interest rate to 3.3%, down 45 basis points from the previous year [5][6] Export Resilience - China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year in dollar terms, with high-end manufacturing sectors like semiconductors and robotics showing significant demand [7][8] - The digital economy, cloud computing, AI computing power, and biomedicine are emerging as new growth opportunities, facilitating a shift from cost advantages to technological and systematic advantages [7][8] Future Outlook - There is considerable room for policy expansion in the second half of the year, with suggestions to increase special bond allocations towards new infrastructure and livelihood improvements [7][8] - The coordinated effect of policies is reflected in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.7% [7][8]