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——2026年1月23日利率债观察:如何看待近期DR001的上行?
EBSCN· 2026-01-23 07:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - There is no need to worry about the so - called "interest rate hike" of DR001 recently. "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" does not mean guiding the average of the overnight interest rate to be exactly equal to the policy interest rate, and the 1.35% DR001 in the second half of 2025 can be considered to be operating around the policy interest rate [1][11]. - The statement of "guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" is not contradictory to the previous statement of "guiding short - term money market interest rates to operate around the policy interest rate center" because they describe different objects and states. Since the second half of 2025, the average of DR001 and DR007 is 1.42%, only deviating from the policy interest rate by 2bp, which is an embodiment of "operating around the policy interest rate center" [2][11]. - The recent increase in DR001 is not high. The value on January 22, 2026, is only at the 86% quantile level since the second half of 2025, and DR001 also has a law of rising in the second half of the month. The recent increase is just a return to the "normal" level [3][13]. - If the deviation of DR001 from the policy interest rate is limited within a period, it indicates that it is in the "around mode", and it is not advisable to over - interpret the normal fluctuations of DR or rely on the short - term changes of DR to judge the attitude of monetary policy [4][16]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Is DR001 going to have an "interest rate hike"? - Some investors are worried that the average of DR001 will rise and approach 1.4% because the average of DR001 in the second half of 2025 was 1.35%, lower than the 7D OMO rate of 1.4%, and the average of DR001 since mid - January 2026 has been significantly higher than before [1][9]. - There is no need to worry. The statement of "guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" does not mean guiding the average of the overnight interest rate to be exactly equal to the policy interest rate, and it is consistent with the previous statement of "guiding short - term money market interest rates to operate around the policy interest rate center" [1][2]. 2. How to view the recent increase in DR001? - On January 22, 2026, DR001 reached 1.42%, the highest since early December 2025, but it is only at the 86% quantile level since the second half of 2025, and DR001 has a law of rising in the second half of the month [3][13]. - Comparing the average of DR001 from the beginning of the month to the 22nd in several months, the value in December 2025 was relatively low, and the recent increase is a return to the "normal" level [3][13]. - The monthly average of DR001 in the second half of 2025 did not differ much, and most months were around 1.37%, close to the policy interest rate. In the "around mode", it is not advisable to over - interpret the normal fluctuations of DR or rely on short - term changes to judge monetary policy [4][16].