本报记者 赵 曦 □ 唐 瑞 文/摄 在全球高端消费市场上，对于"奢侈品"的定义早已超越物质本身，形成涉及历史、身份、艺术与文化的一 整套叙事体系。而在这场以文化为内核的全球竞争中，西方奢侈品牌长期占据着主导地位。 在这样的语境下，中国工艺美术品牌如何构建自己的"高端叙事"？如何讲好中国文化故事，并以此建立相 应的市场地位？ 谁在书写"奢侈"的文化话语？ 奢侈不单在于价格，更是身份的语言。"奢侈"一词在西方语境中，早已与"精英""艺术""历史"牢牢绑定， 形成了完整的"意义系统"。以法国为例，LVMH集团掌控的Louis Vuitton、Dior、Guerlain等品牌，它们不 仅仅是奢侈品公司，更是文化象征的制造商。它们借由历史传承、贵族符号、工艺神话与艺术植入，将"稀 缺"与"传统"自然地嫁接为品牌价值核心，打造出一套极具文化渗透力的"奢侈品叙事体系"。 这套叙事体系中，奢侈品牌大多通过以下路径"讲故事"：如爱马仕、LV等品牌的产品起源，往往被追溯至 一两个世纪之前，强调自身的"百年工艺"，以此赋予品牌可信度。如Chanel挖掘"现代女性独立"作为卖 点，构建身份认同；又如Ralph Lauren通过销售 ...

Core Insights - LVMH is facing an unprecedented crisis, with Bernard Arnault dropping from the world's richest person to the tenth position, amid multiple challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - LVMH's stock price has nearly halved since its peak in April 2023, resulting in a market value loss of approximately €221 billion, with a year-to-date decline of over 30% [3] - Arnault's personal wealth has plummeted from $231 billion in March 2024 to about $149 billion [3] - LVMH has lost its position among the top three most valuable companies in Europe, with Hermès now holding the title of France's most valuable company [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - The U.S. market poses significant challenges for LVMH, exacerbated by Trump's erratic tariff threats, including a 50% tariff on EU goods announced in May [3] - Despite Arnault's connections with Trump, no substantial assistance has been provided to mitigate these threats [3] Group 3: Business Model Issues - LVMH's diversified "grocery store" model is showing weaknesses, with over 75 brands becoming burdensome during tough times [3] - The forward P/E ratio for Hermès is approximately 50 times, while LVMH's is only about 20 times [3] - LVMH has begun selling underperforming brands and is considering further asset divestitures, including exploring the potential spin-off of Sephora [3] Group 4: Core Business Struggles - The Dior brand, managed by Arnault's eldest daughter Delphine, contributes 14% to the group's profits but has seen growth slow in recent quarters, facing criticism for unreasonable price increases and exploitation scandals [3] - The Moët Hennessy division is struggling in the U.S. due to inflation, losing ground to competitors, leading to a CEO replacement in February and the announcement of 1,200 layoffs in March, which is 13% of the workforce [3] Group 5: Governance Concerns - The succession issue is creating a "governance discount" for the group, as Arnault, aged 76, has extended the CEO age limit to 85, with all five children involved in the business but no clear successor identified, causing investor unease [4]

一季度盈利超预期，新兴品牌快速增长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报和一季报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元（原 25-26 年为 4.97 和 6.15 元）， DCF 目标估值 112.46 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归属母 ...

一季度盈利超预期，新兴品牌快速增长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报和一季报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元（原 25-26 年为 4.97 和 6.15 元）， DCF 目标估值 112.46 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归属母 ...

近几年，全球半导体市场风云突变：晶圆厂产能持续紧绷、部分车企因车规级MCU断供被迫 停产……当供应链中断与数据孤岛成为悬在企业"头顶"的达摩克利斯之剑，半导体企业如何 从"各自为战"走向"全链协同"？ 西门子半导体生命周期管理解决方案为您重构数字化的生存法则，帮您的企业打破数据孤 岛，用"一条链"贯穿产品全生命周期，实现业务体系的可持续发展。 从"芯慌"到"芯安"，构建供应链韧性 半导体企业正面临供应链脆弱性危机，且因无法证明可追溯性而陷入安全顾虑。西门子解决方案通 过集成供应链数据，实现从晶圆到终端产品的全生命周期追踪，提前预警关键物料短缺风险。 从"数据沼泽"到"决策飞轮"， 破解协作困局 企业依赖大量互不连通的系统，导致团队在孤岛中独立工作，引发冗余、兼容性问题和系统错误。 西门子解决方案支持跨全球站点和域的协作，简化工程、设计与制造规划，并确保工程与制造 BOM一致性，从而提升跨部门协作效率。 从"合规焦虑"到"安全护城河"， 筑牢知识产权防线 企业因使用多个系统管理数据，导致知识产权保护难度加大，且需应对日益严格的合规要求。西门 子通过集成电路（IC）制造规划，实施行业特定流程和数据模型，提升跨域可 ...