Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas consumer earnings releases have led to stock price volatility, with A/H shares anticipating a recovery in discretionary consumption in 2026 [1]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, with gaming, U.S. hotels, snacks, and retail showing positive trends, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics are experiencing declines [4][12]. - The report notes that the valuation of discretionary consumption sectors remains below the average of the past five years, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]. Sector Performance Summary - **Gaming Sector**: Increased by 5.5%, driven by strong growth in gross gaming revenue and positive earnings from major companies like MGM China [6][14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Also up by 5.5%, with positive earnings forecasts from Marriott and Hilton [14]. - **Snacks Sector**: Rose by 3.6%, with companies like Youyou Foods and Qiaqia Foods showing strong sales growth [14]. - **Retail Sector**: Increased by 3.5%, led by Walmart and Target, which reported better-than-expected same-store sales [14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Grew by 2.6%, with Li Ning benefiting from its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Up by 2.3%, supported by strong earnings from Visa and Mastercard [14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Increased by 2.1%, benefiting from the overall strength in the beauty and skincare sector [14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Slightly up by 0.9%, influenced by a rebound in the U.S. market [14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Increased by 0.7%, with Nike announcing the opening of its first ACG store in Beijing [15]. - **Pet Sector**: Decreased by 0.7%, with companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. facing declines [15]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Down by 1.2%, affected by fluctuations in gold prices [15]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Fell by 5.7%, with Estée Lauder experiencing a significant drop [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Iran risk continues to ferment, causing significant fluctuations in the non - ferrous metals market. The rise in absolute prices has difficulty in downward transmission, with continuous expansion of spot discounts and accumulation of social inventories. The downstream consumption is weak, and the aluminum price has a demand for callback and repair in the short term. In the long - term, macro factors still drive the price increase [6]. - Indian alumina was traded at FOB $308 per ton for 30,000 tons. The Iran risk has a bearish impact on overseas alumina. In China, although there are many alumina plant overhauls, it is not enough to reverse the oversupply situation. The spot price has not stopped falling, and the cost support is weak [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On January 29, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,690 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed - 50 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,810 yuan/ton, with a change of 580 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,430 yuan/ton, closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 725 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,975 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 25,055 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,013,509 lots, and the position was 342,527 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 782,000 tons, with a change of 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 142,705 tons, with a change of - 124 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 497,725 tons, with a change of - 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 29, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was $308 per ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, with a change of 46 yuan/ton (1.66%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,853 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,792 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 833,895 lots, and the position was 468,246 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 29, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 19,100 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,765 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 335 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral for aluminum, cautiously bearish for alumina, and neutral for aluminum alloy. - Arbitrage strategy: Long aluminum and short aluminum alloy [9]

Core Viewpoint - Mastercard's Q4 earnings exceeded market expectations, driven by continued consumer reliance on its payment network amid a complex macroeconomic environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported Q4 net revenue of $8.81 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of $8.78 billion [1] - Adjusted net income reached $4.3 billion (equivalent to $4.76 per share), significantly higher than the forecasted $3.83 billion (or $4.25 per share) [1] - Total annual revenue approached $33 billion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase, surpassing previous guidance of "high-end of mid-to-high double-digit growth" for 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - CEO Michael Miebach noted that the overall macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with healthy consumer and business spending observed [1] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent proposals by President Trump to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year have put pressure on Mastercard and its competitors' stock prices [1] - While the interest rate cap may not directly impact Mastercard's profitability, potential credit tightening by banks could indirectly affect consumer spending [1] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Visa, a competitor in the payment network space, is set to announce its earnings, with both companies previously attempting a $200 billion settlement regarding long-standing legal disputes over merchant swipe fees [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The Middle East crisis has led to concerns about aluminum supply. Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused a significant decline in the US dollar index, and Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about overseas aluminum supply. The long - term macro factors are the main logic for the long - term rise in aluminum prices, but in the short term, aluminum prices need to be corrected [6]. - The Middle East crisis has a negative impact on alumina. The supply - demand pattern of alumina is in surplus, and the social inventory will continue to increase [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,260 yuan/ton, with a change of 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,120 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,230 yuan/ton, with a change of 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed - 40 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,305 yuan/ton, closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,395 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,680 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 937,111 lots, and the position was 362,833 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 777,000 tons, with a change of 34,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 142,829 tons, with a change of 1,377 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 499,975 tons, with a change of - 2,275 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 28, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 308 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,741 yuan/ton, closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, with a change of 89 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,816 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 873,641 lots, and the position was 466,716 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 28, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the absolute price correction, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. However, the upward price trend has difficulty in being transmitted downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output continuing to decline month - on - month, and may enter the Spring Festival holiday early. Although the long - term macro factors still drive the price up, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. - For alumina, the gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is still falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, the oversupply situation persists, and the social inventory is increasing with a possible risk of over - stocking [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,100 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,055 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 355,802 lots, and the open interest was 337,960 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 743,000 tons, a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,856 tons, a change of 101 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, a change of 2,100 tons from the previous day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 22, 2026, the Shanxi alumina price was 2,615 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,717 yuan/ton, a change of 48 yuan/ton (1.80% change) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,728 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 564,157 lots, and the open interest was 489,138 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 22, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price was 18,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the absolute price decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. But the price increase is difficult to be passed on downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output declining. The early - stage inventory accumulation has put pressure on the price. Although the long - term macro factors support the price increase, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. Alumina - The gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak due to factors such as low import ore trading volume, falling prices, and increased bauxite arrivals in China. The supply pressure remains, and there is a risk of over - stocking [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "增持" (Buy), indicating a positive outlook compared to the benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - In December 2025, U.S. apparel consumption showed resilience despite a high base from the previous year, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in air travel passengers [4][5]. - Fast Retailing reported FY26Q1 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of 1,027.7 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 147.4 billion JPY, up 11.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights three main investment lines in the domestic market: focusing on quality leaders with low valuations, light luxury brands benefiting from structural growth, and low-valuation high-dividend companies [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In November 2025, China's retail sales of clothing increased by 4.5%, while textile exports decreased by 5.2% [18][21]. - The U.S. retail data for December 2025 showed a same-store sales growth of 3.1%, with apparel and accessories stores also growing by 3.1% [5][21]. Key Announcements and News - Fast Retailing's performance in FY26Q1 was driven by strong sales across all regions, with notable growth in North America and Europe [4][5]. - The report mentions that Nike executives have recently purchased shares, signaling confidence in the company's recovery [38][39]. Recommended Stocks and Valuation Forecasts - Recommended stocks include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, all rated as "增持" (Buy) with projected PE ratios decreasing over the next few years [16][18]. - The textile and apparel sector's current PE ratio is 20.80, which is below the historical average of 24.59 [17].

Macro and Policy - In 2026, China's macroeconomic growth is expected to show a mild recovery with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, supported by resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, although consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [4][14] - The focus of policies will be on building a modern industrial system, which is anticipated to yield significant results in technological innovation and industrial upgrades [4][14] Major Asset Classes - The asset environment in 2026 is expected to exhibit marginal liquidity easing and mild economic recovery, with recommendations favoring commodities over stocks and bonds [3][13] - The expected annual increase for the Wind All A index is projected to be between 5% and 10%, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a rebound in performance and valuation recovery [3][13] - Commodity prices are anticipated to stabilize, with Brent crude oil expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel, and gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce [3][13] Technology - The narrative around AI is expected to deepen, continuing to reshape the value of the technology sector, with a shift from "model iteration" to "scenario implementation" [5][15] - Domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment are expected to thrive under the trend of self-sufficiency, while AI-related sectors are projected to experience significant growth [5][15] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize due to low expectations and valuations, with a focus on wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization driving business turning points [6][16] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in new products and categories driven by emotional and health-related demands [6][16] Healthcare - The healthcare sector is likely to benefit from improved payment systems and accelerated international expansion, with domestic innovative drugs entering a phase of payment improvement and market realization [7][17] Energy - The energy sector is expected to see continued price increases for copper, aluminum, gold, and battery metals, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [7][17] - Coal companies are projected to improve performance in line with coal prices, with recommendations for selecting stocks based on low-cost positioning and capacity expansion [7][17] Infrastructure - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a stabilization foundation in 2026, and companies may enter a critical year for balance sheet repair [8][18] - The public utility and environmental sectors are recommended for investment, particularly in water and gas industries, which are expected to recover as gas prices fall and demand rises [8][18] Financial Sector - The financial industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with improved operating conditions expected as interest rates stabilize and insurance sector concerns ease [8][18] - Economic recovery is anticipated to drive demand for financial services, with a focus on high-dividend financial stocks as a stable investment choice [8][18] Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector's growth is expected to be driven by resilient overseas demand and a recovery in domestic demand, with AI continuing to be a major growth driver [9][19] - Companies are advised to focus on risk-resistant core assets while capitalizing on global expansion and technological advancements [9][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic market sentiment driven by a weaker US dollar and rising copper and aluminum prices, leading to an increase in zinc prices [1][2] - The overnight London zinc price rose by 2.59%, closing at $3208 per ton, with a trading volume of 16,928 lots, indicating strong market activity [1] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are favorable, with the central government issuing 625 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption, enhancing market optimism [2] Group 2 - The supply of zinc is expected to contract, with domestic smelters continuing to reduce production, which supports zinc prices [2] - Despite entering a seasonal low for consumption, the market shows resilience due to positive expectations for the new year and upcoming holidays [2] - The overall zinc market fundamentals are neutral, with limited contradictions, but macroeconomic preferences are expected to drive zinc prices higher today, with a reference price range of 23,300 - 24,500 yuan per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities reports that Luk Fook Holdings (00590) shows strong resilience in consumer demand with double-digit growth expected in the near term, driven by a new gold value-added tax policy and long-term benefits from market share enhancement for leading companies. The valuation is expected to recover due to overseas expansion and product premiumization, with projected net profits for the next three years being 1.56 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.01 billion HKD, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.3, 7.2, and 6.4 respectively. The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1 (ending September 30, 2025), Luk Fook Holdings exceeded expectations with revenue of 6.84 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of 620 million HKD, up 42.5%. The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to a historical high of 34.7%. Quarterly performance shows strong recovery momentum, with retail value growth of 13% in FY26Q1 and 18% in FY26Q2, alongside same-store sales growth of 5% and 10% respectively [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - The company continues to increase the proportion of high-margin products, with significant performance in pricing products, which have become a key driver for structural optimization. In FY26H1, revenue from gold and platinum reached 4.096 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, accounting for 64.3% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 2.8% to 30.3%. Revenue from pricing jewelry was 2.276 billion HKD, up 67.9%, making up 35.7% of total revenue. Quarterly data shows strong same-store sales growth for self-operated pricing gold and jewelry in both mainland and Hong Kong/Macau [3]. Group 3: Channel Performance - The company is actively optimizing its store network and rebalancing channels. In FY26H1, revenue from retail, wholesale, and brand businesses accounted for 76.8%, 16.3%, and 6.9% respectively, with wholesale revenue increasing significantly by 190.6% and turning profitable with a segment profit margin of 9.7%. As of the end of H1, the total number of global stores was 3,113, a net decrease of 174 stores, with self-operated stores increasing by 23 and brand stores decreasing by 198. Same-store sales growth for the first half was 7.7%, with mainland same-store growth at 10.9% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite budget constraints, consumer demand for electronics and new clothing remains strong, leading to a year-over-year retail sales increase of approximately 4% during the holiday season in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Visa reported that from November 1 to December 21, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, and dining) grew by 4.2%, slightly below the October forecast of 4.6% for the full two months [1] - Mastercard indicated that its data, which includes retail and dining establishments, showed a year-over-year sales increase of 3.9%, surpassing the previous expectation of 3.6% [1] Group 3 - Both companies noted that early promotional activities and the convenience of online shopping contributed to the growth of online sales, which outpaced physical store sales [2] - Visa stated that physical stores still dominate consumer spending, accounting for 73% of transactions, while online transactions represent 27% [2] Group 4 - The growth in consumer spending was led by electronics, with Visa reporting a year-over-year sales increase of 5.8% for products like televisions and smartphones, followed by a 5.3% increase in clothing and accessories [2] - Mastercard mentioned that seasonal promotions and cold weather stimulated demand for new clothing, with jewelry also seeing increased consumer interest this year [2]