Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas consumer earnings releases have led to stock price volatility, with A/H shares anticipating a recovery in discretionary consumption in 2026 [1]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, with gaming, U.S. hotels, snacks, and retail showing positive trends, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics are experiencing declines [4][12]. - The report notes that the valuation of discretionary consumption sectors remains below the average of the past five years, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]. Sector Performance Summary - **Gaming Sector**: Increased by 5.5%, driven by strong growth in gross gaming revenue and positive earnings from major companies like MGM China [6][14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Also up by 5.5%, with positive earnings forecasts from Marriott and Hilton [14]. - **Snacks Sector**: Rose by 3.6%, with companies like Youyou Foods and Qiaqia Foods showing strong sales growth [14]. - **Retail Sector**: Increased by 3.5%, led by Walmart and Target, which reported better-than-expected same-store sales [14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Grew by 2.6%, with Li Ning benefiting from its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Up by 2.3%, supported by strong earnings from Visa and Mastercard [14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Increased by 2.1%, benefiting from the overall strength in the beauty and skincare sector [14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Slightly up by 0.9%, influenced by a rebound in the U.S. market [14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Increased by 0.7%, with Nike announcing the opening of its first ACG store in Beijing [15]. - **Pet Sector**: Decreased by 0.7%, with companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. facing declines [15]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Down by 1.2%, affected by fluctuations in gold prices [15]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Fell by 5.7%, with Estée Lauder experiencing a significant drop [15].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 基本面跟随困难铝价短期警惕风险 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24860元/吨，较上一交易日变化600元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-200元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价24690元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-370元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录24810元/吨，较上一交易日变化580元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-245 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-29日沪铝主力合约开于25430元/吨，收于25590元/吨，较上一交易日变化725元/吨，最 高价达25975元/吨，最低价达到25055元/吨。全天交易日成交1013509手，全天交易日持仓342527手。 铝合金价格方面：2026-01-29保太民用生铝采购价格18700元/吨，机械生铝采购价格19100元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化400元/吨。ADC12保太报价24000元/吨，价格环比昨日变化200元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.73万吨，厂内库存7.11万吨。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本23765元/吨，理论利润33 ...

万事达卡公司(MA.US)第四季度盈利表现超出市场预期，这得益于消费者在复杂宏观环境下对其支付网 络的持续依赖。 根据周四发布的财报，这家总部位于纽约州帕切斯的支付巨头2025年最后三个月实现净营收88.1亿美 元，略高于分析师预期的87.8亿美元。公司调整后净利润达43亿美元(合每股4.76美元)，显著高于分析 师此前预估的38.3亿美元(合每股4.25美元)。 本月早些时候，美国总统特朗普提议将信用卡利率上限设定为10%，为期一年，此举曾对万事达卡及其 竞争对手股价形成压力。虽然利率上限可能不直接影响万事达卡盈利，但若银行因此收缩信贷投放导致 消费者信贷渠道收窄，可能间接影响消费支出。特朗普近期已敦促国会推进该提案。 万事达卡的支付网络竞争对手维萨公司定于周四盘后公布业绩。去年11月，两家支付巨头曾尝试以约 2000亿美元规模和解与商户之间围绕刷卡手续费的长期法律纠纷，但目前尚不确定该方案能否彻底解决 问题。 截至发稿，万事达卡股价盘前上涨2.23%。该股在过去12个月累计下跌5%。 公司全年营收总额近330亿美元，同比增长16%，此前公司在去年10月曾预测2025年净营收增速将位 于"中高双位数区间的高 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 中东危机引供应担忧 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24260元/吨，较上一交易日变化390元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-180元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价24120元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-320元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录24230元/吨，较上一交易日变化360元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-205 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-28日沪铝主力合约开于24305元/吨，收于25640元/吨，较上一交易日变化1395元/吨， 最高价达25680元/吨，最低价达到24155元/吨。全天交易日成交937111手，全天交易日持仓362833手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-28，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存77.7万吨，较上一期变化3.4万吨，仓单库存142829 吨，较上一交易日变化1377吨，LME铝库存499975吨，较上一交易日变化-2275吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-28SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 26 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [8] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, after the absolute price correction, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. However, the upward price trend has difficulty in being transmitted downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output continuing to decline month - on - month, and may enter the Spring Festival holiday early. Although the long - term macro factors still drive the price up, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. - For alumina, the gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is still falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, the oversupply situation persists, and the social inventory is increasing with a possible risk of over - stocking [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,740 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,100 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,055 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 355,802 lots, and the open interest was 337,960 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 743,000 tons, a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 138,856 tons, a change of 101 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, a change of 2,100 tons from the previous day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 22, 2026, the Shanxi alumina price was 2,615 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,560 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,645 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,750 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 22, 2026, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,717 yuan/ton, a change of 48 yuan/ton (1.80% change) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,728 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,666 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 564,157 lots, and the open interest was 489,138 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 22, 2026, the Baotai civil raw aluminum procurement price was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price was 18,100 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 23,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 65,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 426 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the absolute price decline, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the spot discount has been slightly repaired. But the price increase is difficult to be passed on downstream. The downstream has entered the consumption off - season, with the operating rate and output declining. The early - stage inventory accumulation has put pressure on the price. Although the long - term macro factors support the price increase, there is a short - term need for price correction [6]. Alumina - The gold mine accident in Guinea has no impact on bauxite mining. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is at a premium. The cost support is weak due to factors such as low import ore trading volume, falling prices, and increased bauxite arrivals in China. The supply pressure remains, and there is a risk of over - stocking [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "增持" (Buy), indicating a positive outlook compared to the benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - In December 2025, U.S. apparel consumption showed resilience despite a high base from the previous year, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% in air travel passengers [4][5]. - Fast Retailing reported FY26Q1 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue of 1,027.7 billion JPY, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 147.4 billion JPY, up 11.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights three main investment lines in the domestic market: focusing on quality leaders with low valuations, light luxury brands benefiting from structural growth, and low-valuation high-dividend companies [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In November 2025, China's retail sales of clothing increased by 4.5%, while textile exports decreased by 5.2% [18][21]. - The U.S. retail data for December 2025 showed a same-store sales growth of 3.1%, with apparel and accessories stores also growing by 3.1% [5][21]. Key Announcements and News - Fast Retailing's performance in FY26Q1 was driven by strong sales across all regions, with notable growth in North America and Europe [4][5]. - The report mentions that Nike executives have recently purchased shares, signaling confidence in the company's recovery [38][39]. Recommended Stocks and Valuation Forecasts - Recommended stocks include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, all rated as "增持" (Buy) with projected PE ratios decreasing over the next few years [16][18]. - The textile and apparel sector's current PE ratio is 20.80, which is below the historical average of 24.59 [17].

Macro and Policy - In 2026, China's macroeconomic growth is expected to show a mild recovery with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, supported by resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, although consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [4][14] - The focus of policies will be on building a modern industrial system, which is anticipated to yield significant results in technological innovation and industrial upgrades [4][14] Major Asset Classes - The asset environment in 2026 is expected to exhibit marginal liquidity easing and mild economic recovery, with recommendations favoring commodities over stocks and bonds [3][13] - The expected annual increase for the Wind All A index is projected to be between 5% and 10%, while Hong Kong stocks may experience a rebound in performance and valuation recovery [3][13] - Commodity prices are anticipated to stabilize, with Brent crude oil expected to fluctuate between $58 and $70 per barrel, and gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce [3][13] Technology - The narrative around AI is expected to deepen, continuing to reshape the value of the technology sector, with a shift from "model iteration" to "scenario implementation" [5][15] - Domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment are expected to thrive under the trend of self-sufficiency, while AI-related sectors are projected to experience significant growth [5][15] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize due to low expectations and valuations, with a focus on wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization driving business turning points [6][16] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in new products and categories driven by emotional and health-related demands [6][16] Healthcare - The healthcare sector is likely to benefit from improved payment systems and accelerated international expansion, with domestic innovative drugs entering a phase of payment improvement and market realization [7][17] Energy - The energy sector is expected to see continued price increases for copper, aluminum, gold, and battery metals, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [7][17] - Coal companies are projected to improve performance in line with coal prices, with recommendations for selecting stocks based on low-cost positioning and capacity expansion [7][17] Infrastructure - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for a stabilization foundation in 2026, and companies may enter a critical year for balance sheet repair [8][18] - The public utility and environmental sectors are recommended for investment, particularly in water and gas industries, which are expected to recover as gas prices fall and demand rises [8][18] Financial Sector - The financial industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with improved operating conditions expected as interest rates stabilize and insurance sector concerns ease [8][18] - Economic recovery is anticipated to drive demand for financial services, with a focus on high-dividend financial stocks as a stable investment choice [8][18] Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector's growth is expected to be driven by resilient overseas demand and a recovery in domestic demand, with AI continuing to be a major growth driver [9][19] - Companies are advised to focus on risk-resistant core assets while capitalizing on global expansion and technological advancements [9][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic market sentiment driven by a weaker US dollar and rising copper and aluminum prices, leading to an increase in zinc prices [1][2] - The overnight London zinc price rose by 2.59%, closing at $3208 per ton, with a trading volume of 16,928 lots, indicating strong market activity [1] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are favorable, with the central government issuing 625 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption, enhancing market optimism [2] Group 2 - The supply of zinc is expected to contract, with domestic smelters continuing to reduce production, which supports zinc prices [2] - Despite entering a seasonal low for consumption, the market shows resilience due to positive expectations for the new year and upcoming holidays [2] - The overall zinc market fundamentals are neutral, with limited contradictions, but macroeconomic preferences are expected to drive zinc prices higher today, with a reference price range of 23,300 - 24,500 yuan per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - Northeast Securities reports that Luk Fook Holdings (00590) shows strong resilience in consumer demand with double-digit growth expected in the near term, driven by a new gold value-added tax policy and long-term benefits from market share enhancement for leading companies. The valuation is expected to recover due to overseas expansion and product premiumization, with projected net profits for the next three years being 1.56 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.01 billion HKD, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.3, 7.2, and 6.4 respectively. The initial coverage gives a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1 (ending September 30, 2025), Luk Fook Holdings exceeded expectations with revenue of 6.84 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of 620 million HKD, up 42.5%. The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to a historical high of 34.7%. Quarterly performance shows strong recovery momentum, with retail value growth of 13% in FY26Q1 and 18% in FY26Q2, alongside same-store sales growth of 5% and 10% respectively [2]. Group 2: Product Performance - The company continues to increase the proportion of high-margin products, with significant performance in pricing products, which have become a key driver for structural optimization. In FY26H1, revenue from gold and platinum reached 4.096 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, accounting for 64.3% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase of 2.8% to 30.3%. Revenue from pricing jewelry was 2.276 billion HKD, up 67.9%, making up 35.7% of total revenue. Quarterly data shows strong same-store sales growth for self-operated pricing gold and jewelry in both mainland and Hong Kong/Macau [3]. Group 3: Channel Performance - The company is actively optimizing its store network and rebalancing channels. In FY26H1, revenue from retail, wholesale, and brand businesses accounted for 76.8%, 16.3%, and 6.9% respectively, with wholesale revenue increasing significantly by 190.6% and turning profitable with a segment profit margin of 9.7%. As of the end of H1, the total number of global stores was 3,113, a net decrease of 174 stores, with self-operated stores increasing by 23 and brand stores decreasing by 198. Same-store sales growth for the first half was 7.7%, with mainland same-store growth at 10.9% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite budget constraints, consumer demand for electronics and new clothing remains strong, leading to a year-over-year retail sales increase of approximately 4% during the holiday season in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Visa reported that from November 1 to December 21, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, and dining) grew by 4.2%, slightly below the October forecast of 4.6% for the full two months [1] - Mastercard indicated that its data, which includes retail and dining establishments, showed a year-over-year sales increase of 3.9%, surpassing the previous expectation of 3.6% [1] Group 3 - Both companies noted that early promotional activities and the convenience of online shopping contributed to the growth of online sales, which outpaced physical store sales [2] - Visa stated that physical stores still dominate consumer spending, accounting for 73% of transactions, while online transactions represent 27% [2] Group 4 - The growth in consumer spending was led by electronics, with Visa reporting a year-over-year sales increase of 5.8% for products like televisions and smartphones, followed by a 5.3% increase in clothing and accessories [2] - Mastercard mentioned that seasonal promotions and cold weather stimulated demand for new clothing, with jewelry also seeing increased consumer interest this year [2]