来源：中信证券研究 China Themes 中国主题 2026年投资展望 展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，全年经济增速或达4.9%，出口保持 韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复 的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。我们首推China Themes（中国主题）报告，聚合2026年大类资产展 望、宏观政策及产业投资看点，并梳理各行业重点公司，供投资者参考。 ▍大类资产：2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票 >债券。权益方面，我们预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估 值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，我们预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率 或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美 元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击 ...

国内宏观政策利好不断，近期中央提前向地方下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债，用于支持消 费品以旧换新，以满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。为提振消费，政策打出"组合拳"，加强财政金融协 同以放大政策效能，进一步增强了市场乐观情绪。 基本面，沪锌社库续降、供应收缩预期强，现货保持升水，国内炼厂减产延续，1月锌锭产出预计环比 基本持平，对锌价形成支撑。消费端虽进入行业淡季，但在"十五五"开局、开门红预期下，消费仍具韧 性。 整体来看，锌基本面中性，矛盾有限，资金交投热情一般，暂呈震荡态势，不过宏观偏好主导，今日现 货锌价或上涨，参考价格区间为2.33 - 2.45万元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】美指走软及铜铝大涨催生市场乐观情绪，隔夜伦锌收涨2.59%；沪锌社库续降、供应收 缩预期强，现货升水及宏观偏好主导，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌震荡走强，盘中走势强劲，开盘报3139.5美元/吨，高点报3213.5美 元，低点报3136美元，尾盘收于3208美元，涨81美元，涨幅2.59%；成交量16928手增加9214手， ...

FY26H1业绩 FY26H1(截至2025年9月30日)，六福集团业绩超预期。期内实现收入68.4亿港元(同比+25.6%)，归母净 利润6.2亿港元(同比+42.5%)，毛利率同比提升2个百分点至34.7%，达历史新高。从季度表现来看，业 绩持续改善，恢复动能强劲。FY26Q1集团零售值同比增长13%，同店销售上升5%;FY26Q2零售值进一 步提速，同比增长18%，同店销售增速升至10%。 产品端：公司持续推进高毛利产品占比，定价类产品表现突出，成为结构优化引擎 FY26H1黄金及铂金类收入40.96亿港元，同比增长11.0%占比达到64.3%，毛利率增加2.8%提升至30.3%; 定价首饰收入22.76亿港元，同比增长67.9%，占比35.7%。分季度看，FY26Q1内地自营定价黄金同店 +69%，定价首饰同店+16%;港澳定价黄金+74%，定价首饰+19%。FY26Q2内地自营定价黄金同店 +49%，定价首饰+8%;港澳定价黄金+68%，定价首饰+27%。定价黄金产品的销售占比在Q1提升至 16%-17%，结构性利好持续释放。 智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研报称，短期看，六福集团(00590)期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite budget constraints, consumer demand for electronics and new clothing remains strong, leading to a year-over-year retail sales increase of approximately 4% during the holiday season in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Visa reported that from November 1 to December 21, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, and dining) grew by 4.2%, slightly below the October forecast of 4.6% for the full two months [1] - Mastercard indicated that its data, which includes retail and dining establishments, showed a year-over-year sales increase of 3.9%, surpassing the previous expectation of 3.6% [1] Group 3 - Both companies noted that early promotional activities and the convenience of online shopping contributed to the growth of online sales, which outpaced physical store sales [2] - Visa stated that physical stores still dominate consumer spending, accounting for 73% of transactions, while online transactions represent 27% [2] Group 4 - The growth in consumer spending was led by electronics, with Visa reporting a year-over-year sales increase of 5.8% for products like televisions and smartphones, followed by a 5.3% increase in clothing and accessories [2] - Mastercard mentioned that seasonal promotions and cold weather stimulated demand for new clothing, with jewelry also seeing increased consumer interest this year [2]

Group 1: Economic Structure and Trends - The service and manufacturing sectors are not in opposition but rather have a symbiotic relationship, as evidenced by the increase of over 7 percentage points in the service sector's share of global GDP from 1980 to 1996, while manufacturing remained stable[1] - From 2002 to 2019, both sectors exhibited a synchronized trend of rise and fall, indicating their interdependence rather than a zero-sum game[1] - Manufacturing acts as an incubator for service industries, with many productive services like logistics and R&D initially emerging from within manufacturing firms[1] Group 2: Support and Demand Dynamics - The large service sector constitutes the core consumer base for manufacturing products, creating significant demand for items ranging from medical equipment to educational materials[2] - Services play a crucial role in enhancing human capital, which is essential for the quality of manufacturing inputs, thereby supporting innovation and breakthroughs in the manufacturing sector[2] - The current economic transition in China highlights the need for high-quality development in manufacturing to create more opportunities for productive services like R&D and digital services[2] Group 3: Current Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in investment activities[4] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 2.90% year-on-year, reflecting some resilience in consumer spending[4] - Exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year, suggesting pressure on external demand[4] - The M2 money supply has grown by 8.21%, indicating a continued expansionary monetary policy[4]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is expected to experience upward price trends in the medium to long term due to strong demand and rigid supply, despite potential short-term price declines due to seasonal pressures in the consumption off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September and October, boosting sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has alleviated concerns regarding aluminum product trade barriers, contributing to a more optimistic macro environment [1]. - Political uncertainties in the U.S. have decreased, and economic data has not been as pessimistic as expected, further strengthening the positive macro outlook [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Recent weather conditions in Guinea and reduced shipments from Australia have led to a significant decline in bauxite inventory at ports, but shipments are expected to return to previous levels after the rainy season [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains stable due to sufficient raw material inventory, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.05% as of October, despite a slight decline [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearly fully utilized at 97.46%, with limited room for future capacity growth [3]. - Global electrolytic aluminum production is estimated at 72 million tons for 2024, with China contributing about 60%, while overseas production faces constraints from energy costs and infrastructure issues [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall consumption of aluminum shows resilience, although the average operating rate for aluminum profiles is significantly lower than in previous years [4]. - Demand in traditional construction sectors is weak, but strong demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and ultra-high voltage infrastructure supports consumption resilience [5]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The global aluminum market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, heavily reliant on China's nearly full production capacity [5]. - Short-term price pressures may arise as the market enters the traditional consumption off-season, following a recent surge in prices above 22,000 yuan/ton [5].

Core Insights - The annual "Double 11" e-commerce promotion is a crucial period for consumer demand release, positively impacting various industries, including the liquor sector, with Feitian Moutai leading the market performance [1] - Feitian Moutai's stable terminal price reflects genuine consumer demand, with an average transaction price of 1835 yuan per bottle on November 11, remaining consistent [1][2] Pricing Trends - The terminal retail price for Feitian Moutai on November 11 was 1835 yuan per bottle, showing stability compared to previous days [2] - Prices for other premium liquors, such as Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, have seen slight declines, indicating a competitive market environment [2] - Regional price data shows that Feitian Moutai prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Hubei markets are consistent with the overall trend, maintaining a stable to upward trajectory [2][3] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is currently facing pressure, but leading companies like Moutai demonstrate resilience and confidence, fostering closer collaboration with distributors to optimize supply chains and alleviate inventory pressures [4] - Consumers are increasingly recognizing the importance of purchasing from legitimate channels, moving away from speculative buying behaviors, which is contributing to a more rational market environment [5] - Recent measures by platforms like Douyin to combat low-price sales of Moutai aim to curb false marketing and counterfeit products, benefiting Moutai's market position [5]

Core Insights - Mastercard's Q3 earnings exceeded analyst expectations due to strong consumer and business spending [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was $4 billion, or $4.38 per share, surpassing the expected $3.91 billion, or $4.31 per share [1] - Q3 revenue reached $8.6 billion, a 16.7% year-over-year increase, also exceeding analyst forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Total transaction volume for Q3 was $2.75 trillion, meeting market expectations and up from $2.63 trillion in Q2 [1] - The number of cards issued increased by 6%, rising from 3.42 billion in Q3 2024 to 3.64 billion [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a "mid-high teens" percentage growth in net revenue for 2025, consistent with previous predictions made in July [1] Market Context - Mastercard's performance aligns with that of its competitor Visa, which also reported strong quarterly results, highlighting resilient spending [1]

Core Insights - A-shares are experiencing a divergence in performance, with traditional sectors like banking and coal leading gains while high-growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence are declining [1][4] Sector Performance - The coal sector has seen a rise of 9.53% in October, while the banking sector has increased by 5.53% [5] - Traditional sectors such as banking, coal, ports, and liquor are showing strong performance, contrasting with the significant pullback in technology-related sectors like electronics and communications [4][5] - The banking sector (881155.TI) has a median price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.73 and a dividend yield of 4.22%, indicating its defensive characteristics [3] Market Trends - The current market environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to enhance liquidity and improve market risk appetite [6] - Analysts suggest that high-dividend and consumer sectors may be more attractive for investors in the short term, while technology and manufacturing sectors could become focal points in the medium term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is cautiously bullish, and the rating for arbitrage is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - LME inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute value remains below 40,000 tons, leading to a rapid increase in overseas premiums. The domestic supply pressure persists, but the opening of the export window has reversed the short - allocation logic. The linkage between domestic and overseas zinc prices will strengthen, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $201.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan per ton, closed at 22,220 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the position was 95,194 lots. The highest price was 22,335 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,210 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,600 tons, a change of 1,125 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - LME inventory has a slight rebound, but the absolute value is still low, causing the overseas premium to quickly break through $200 per ton. The domestic smelting profit has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains. The opening of the export window has changed the short - allocation logic, and the linkage between domestic and overseas prices will strengthen. There's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] Strategy - Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral [5]