(文/解红娟 编辑/张广凯） 上海大宗交易市场的成交金额已连续四年呈现下滑态势。 近日，戴德梁行发布2025上海房地产大宗交易市场报告，报告指出，2025年上海大宗交易市场共录得75宗、共计424亿元成交，同比均下降约40%，成交金 额连续四年收窄。其中，2025年第四季度市场延续低迷态势，录得14宗、共计67亿元成交，金额同比下降63%、环比下降57%。 行业周期性调整之下，资产成交价格进入低位区间。2025年上海大宗市场单宗成交均价约5.6亿元，四季度降至4.8亿元。全年成交额小于3亿元的宗数有38 笔，宗数占比超50%。 2025年12月底，京投发展宣布以0元收购TrillionFullInvestmentsLimited持有的上海礼仕45%股权，同时以3500万元受让复地集团对上海礼仕的2.09亿元债权。 交易完成后，京投发展对上海礼仕的持股比例升至100%，正式将这家由凯悦集团运营、亚洲首家安达仕品牌五星级酒店纳入版图。 此外，年内酒店板块还落地5宗大宗交易，均为总价低于3亿元的精品酒店项目，例如山东海鹏经济发展集团以2.05亿元收购上海虹桥国展中心亚朵酒店。 买家结构方面，内资买家持续占据绝对主导 ...

Core Insights - Alluvial Capital Management's fund achieved a 15.5% increase in Q3 2025, resulting in a year-to-date return of 33.6%, marking its third-best quarterly performance in nine years [1] - The fund's investor letter highlighted Net Lease Office Properties (NYSE:NLOP), which has seen a one-month return of -0.88% and a 52-week decline of 3.56% [2] - The fund holds an 11% allocation to real estate investment trusts in out-of-favor sectors, with Net Lease Office Properties not responding positively to improved sentiment around office properties [3] Company Performance - Net Lease Office Properties (NYSE:NLOP) closed at $29.27 per share on October 28, 2025, with a market capitalization of $433.608 million [2] - The trust is currently marketing its largest asset, a one million plus square feet office building in central Houston, and has multiple vacant properties for sale [3] - The trust trades at a cap rate of nearly 18% and $87 per square foot of real estate, excluding properties encumbered by mortgages [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Net Lease Office Properties (NYSE:NLOP) was held by 11 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, down from 15 in the previous quarter [4] - While the potential of Net Lease Office Properties is acknowledged, certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - The earnings season highlights the diverse performance across Singapore's REIT sector, with data centres showing strong demand while prime offices adapt to changing work trends [1][2] Keppel DC REIT - Keppel DC REIT reported a significant gross revenue increase of 37.7% YoY to S$322.4 million for 9M2025, driven by acquisitions and contract renewals [3] - Distribution per unit (DPU) rose 8.8% YoY to S$0.0767, but adjusted DPU, excluding dilution from capital raising, only increased by 11.7% YoY to S$0.07872 [4] - The portfolio occupancy rate remained healthy at 95.8%, with a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.7 years, indicating stability [4] - The REIT is actively reshaping its portfolio with new acquisitions and asset enhancement initiatives expected to generate additional income [5] OUE REIT - OUE REIT's revenue fell 5.8% YoY to S$70.5 million for Q3 2025, primarily due to the divestment of Lippo Plaza Shanghai, but like-for-like growth showed resilience with a 1.2% revenue increase [6][7] - The DPU for the first half of 2025 was S$0.010, up 5.4% YoY, while the Singapore office portfolio maintained a committed occupancy of 95.3% [7] - The hospitality segment experienced a revenue per available room decline of 5.7% YoY, but finance costs decreased significantly by 19.7% to S$21.6 million [9] Suntec REIT - Suntec REIT achieved a DPU growth of 12.5% YoY to S$0.018 despite a slight revenue decline of 0.2% to S$117.5 million for Q3 2025, showcasing effective cost management [10][11] - Committed occupancy rates were robust at 98.5% for Singapore offices and 99.3% for retail, indicating strong demand [11] - Positive rental reversion rates of 8.5% for Singapore offices and 8.6% for retail suggest continued pricing power for landlords [12]

Core Insights - SL Green (SLG) has entered into a contract to acquire 346 Madison Avenue and the adjacent site at 11 East 44th Street for $160 million, with the deal expected to close in Q4 of this year [1][7] - The acquisition presents a strategic opportunity to develop approximately 800,000 rentable square feet in line with East Midtown rezoning, catering to strong tenant demand for new construction with advanced amenities [2][7] - The properties are located near One Vanderbilt, positioning SL Green to pursue a world-class office development in a prime market [3] Company Strategy - This acquisition underscores SL Green's commitment to acquiring assets in key markets to capture profitable growth opportunities and meet tenant needs [4] - Despite market challenges, SL Green's leasing successes have positioned it as a standout in the office real estate sector, although its shares have dropped 7.1% in the past three months compared to the industry's growth of 0.3% [4]

Core Insights - The MSCI report indicates a 19% year-on-year decline in commercial real estate investment in the Asia-Pacific region, projected to reach $31.8 billion by Q2 2025, due to rising macroeconomic and trade uncertainties [1] - Despite a slowdown in trading activities in some markets due to new tariffs, there are positive developments, particularly in the office market where investment levels have returned to long-term averages, with notable performance in South Korea and Japan [1] - Singapore's transaction volume increased by 51% in Q2, driven by strong interest from cross-border investors in hotel and residential properties [1] - Data centers showed exceptional performance, with Q2 transaction volumes surging over tenfold year-on-year to $3.5 billion, largely due to significant platform transactions [1] - The industrial real estate sector's leading momentum has slowed, prompting investors to adjust their allocations towards a more balanced approach in core sectors, with varying recovery rates across different property types [1] - A key trend for mid-2025 is the recovery of cross-border capital flows, with increased investments across major markets in all real estate categories except industrial [1]

Financial Performance Highlights - Net income decreased by 32% to $23 million in Q2'25 compared to $33 million in Q2'24, and decreased by 72% to $06 million YTD compared to $20 million YTD, largely due to professional fees related to a transaction and lower net interest income [6] - Pro rata NOI increased by 7% to $191 million in Q2'25 compared to $178 million in Q2'24, and increased by 5% to $97 million YTD compared to $92 million YTD [6] - Pro rata revenue increased to $13997 million in Q2'25 from $13309 million in Q2'24, and increased to $27426 million YTD in 2025 from $26127 million YTD in 2024 [8] Segment Performance - Multifamily segment pro rata NOI increased by 1% to $4737 million in Q2'25 compared to Q2 2024, and increased by 2% to $9367 million YTD compared to YTD 2024, primarily due to improved occupancy at The Verge and Dock 79 [6, 11, 12] - Industrial and Commercial segment NOI decreased by 15% to $1010 million in Q2'25 compared to Q2 2024, and decreased to $2149 million YTD compared to YTD 2024, primarily due to an eviction and lease expirations [6, 15, 16] - Mining Royalty Lands segment NOI increased by 21% to $3665 million in Q2'25 compared to Q2 2024, and increased by 20% to $6949 million YTD compared to YTD 2024, primarily due to a reduction in royalty payments in the prior year [6, 21] Development and Strategic Initiatives - Amended the Company's Credit Agreement with Wells Fargo, establishing a five-year, $50 million revolver at SOFR + 225% [6] - Entered a JV with Strategic Real Estate Partners to develop 377892 square feet of industrial space in Lake County, FL [6] - Development activity continues with construction started on Lakeland, FL (200000 sq ft warehouse), Davie, FL (182000 sq ft warehouse redevelopment), and "Woven" – Greenville, SC (214 multifamily units and 14000 retail sq ft multifamily development) in Q2 '25 [10, 27]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core rental business saw a decline of 3%, which was anticipated at the beginning of the year, with hopes for improvement in the second half [7][9] - Overall revenue contribution from property sales and hotel business accounted for 33% of total revenue, down 6% [9] - The net gearing of Hang Lung Properties stood at 33.5%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% compared to December [37] - The average borrowing cost decreased to 3.9%, a decline of around 40 basis points from the previous year [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rental revenue in Mainland China decreased by 1% in the first half, an improvement from a 4% decline in 2024 [12] - Retail business remained flat compared to a 3% decline in 2024, with base rent increases offsetting sales rent drops [13] - Office rental revenue continued to face challenges, with a decline of 4% [12] - New letting increased by 36%, indicating a strong demand for new tenants despite market challenges [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hong Kong's rental revenue decreased by 4%, while residential and service apartment rentals improved by 11% [34] - The retail sector in Hong Kong saw a decline of 7%, but the overall sales were down by only 2% compared to the market's 4% decline [34] - The Mainland retail landscape is evolving, with some athleisure brands performing better than luxury brands [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing its retail offerings through events and tenant management to adapt to the changing retail landscape [18] - A national program is being launched to improve operational efficiency and attract foot traffic in second-tier cities [18] - The company is exploring hybrid property models to expand its retail business in cities where it already has a presence [64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about stability and potential growth in the second half of the year, with expectations for mild growth in retail sales [6][66] - The company is committed to maintaining its dividend policy, aiming for stability rather than frequent resets [75] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the office rental market but emphasized the retention of quality tenants as a key strategy [30] Other Important Information - The company has increased its exposure to renminbi-denominated loans, which helps manage finance costs and provides a natural hedge [39] - The company is committed to sustainability, with 80% of projects in Mainland China powered by renewable energy [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future of hybrid property models for retail expansion - Management indicated that hybrid models will be considered when there is demand and synergy with existing projects [64][65] Question: Tenant sales trends for the next twelve months - Management anticipates a potential improvement from negative sales to mild growth in the second half of the year [66] Question: Improvement in the second quarter despite trade war concerns - Management attributed the improvement to increased occupancy and traffic, along with external factors like stock market stabilization [70][72] Question: Dividend policy for the full year - Management intends to maintain a flat dividend, with no plans for cuts unless circumstances change [75] Question: Potential issuance of convertible bonds - Management is cautious about dilutive instruments and currently does not consider issuing convertible bonds [76][77] Question: Progress on transitioning properties in Shenyang and Wuhan - Management reported improvements in occupancy and traffic, with a focus on enhancing the tenant mix to attract customers [78][79]

Core Insights - The office market in major first and second-tier cities in China is expected to see approximately 6.4 million square meters of new supply this year, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% [2] - The rental prices are declining, and vacancy rates are rising due to high supply pressure and companies' cost-cutting measures [3][5] - Despite a challenging market in 2024, there are signs of recovery in early 2025, driven by demand from new productivity enterprises and service-oriented consumer companies [2][7] Market Conditions - The average rental price for office buildings in key cities was 200.15 yuan per square meter per month by the end of 2024, down 3.09% from June 2024 and 4.34% from the end of 2023 [3] - 75% of sampled projects experienced a decline in rental prices compared to the end of 2023, indicating a significant drop in demand [3][4] - The average occupancy rate for 50 sampled office projects was 86.99% at the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease from previous periods, highlighting ongoing market pressure [5] Regional Performance - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuhan saw average rental price declines, while Chongqing remained stable and only Hangzhou experienced an increase due to rapid development in emerging industries [4] - The demand in Hangzhou is driven by sectors such as information technology and artificial intelligence, attracting investment and leading to office space expansion [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The imbalance between supply and demand is the primary reason for declining rental prices, exacerbated by economic slowdown and shifts towards remote and shared working models [6] - The report suggests that if the supply-demand relationship does not improve, rental prices may continue to decline, prompting landlords to lower prices or extend rent-free periods to attract tenants [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to gradually improve, with signs of recovery in early 2025, although short-term challenges remain [7] - The focus will shift towards flexibility, multifunctionality, and sustainability in office spaces, requiring operators to evolve from mere space providers to ecosystem builders [7][8] - Strategies for addressing industry challenges include precise land supply control, updating existing stock, and promoting flexible leasing options [8]