Core Insights - The ASEAN LV market experienced a growth of 3% YoY in H1 2025 but began H2 with a decline of 1% YoY, primarily due to negative sales in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [1] Indonesia Market Summary - LV sales in Indonesia fell by 17% YoY in July and continued to decline by 19% YoY in August, marking four consecutive months of double-digit declines, leading to an overall decrease of 10% YoY from January to August [2] - Political uncertainty and the potential for protest recurrence, along with a decrease in consumer income and increased debt payments, have led to a downward revision of the long-term sales outlook for Indonesia [3] - The projected LV volumes for Indonesia in 2025 are now estimated at 720k units, the lowest annual total in 15 years, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic year of 2020 [3] Malaysia Market Summary - In Malaysia, LV sales dropped by 2% YoY in July, totaling 71k units, but August saw a 3% YoY increase and a 5% MoM increase to 75k units, the highest monthly sales total for the year [4] - The growth in August was driven by new model deliveries from Chinese brands and national brands, alongside ongoing price reductions stimulating sales [4] - The sales outlook for Malaysia in 2025 has been revised slightly upward to 790k units, with expectations of a boost in Q4 2025 as consumers rush to purchase before anticipated price hikes in 2026 due to changes in tax calculation methodology [5]

Core Insights - South Africa's automotive industry is facing severe challenges, including declining sales, high import rates, and insufficient localization, leading to the closure of 12 companies and the loss of over 4,000 jobs in the past two years [2][4][6] - Despite these challenges, companies like Toyota, Stellantis, Chery, and BYD are increasing their investments in South Africa, driven by local policies promoting electrification and localization [3][10] Industry Challenges - South Africa's automotive market, once a leader in Africa, is now struggling with a 3% year-on-year decline in sales, projected at approximately 516,000 units for 2024 [6] - The import vehicle ratio is alarmingly high at 64%, while the localization rate remains stagnant at around 39%, significantly below the target of 60% [6][9] - The automotive production target of 1.4 million units by 2035 is far from the estimated production of 630,000 units in 2024, with over 60% of production aimed at export markets [6][10] Impact of External Factors - The recent U.S. tariffs on South African automotive exports, amounting to 28.7 billion South African Rand (approximately 11.7 billion RMB), are expected to exacerbate the industry's difficulties [6][9] - The automotive sector directly employs 115,000 people, with an additional 80,000 in parts manufacturing, facing risks of job losses due to the tariffs [7][9] Government Initiatives - The South African government is expanding local manufacturing incentives, particularly for electric vehicles and related components, to address industry challenges [10] - A tax reduction policy of 150% for investments in electric and hydrogen vehicles is set to take effect from March 2026, alongside a 1 billion South African Rand fund to support local electric vehicle and battery production [10][11] Market Developments - Chinese automakers such as BAIC, Chery, Great Wall, BYD, and others are competing with multinational giants like Toyota and Volkswagen in South Africa [11][13] - Chery has introduced hybrid models in South Africa, while BYD plans to establish a significant presence with multiple electric vehicle models by 2025 [11][13] - Stellantis is also pursuing local production, with plans to manufacture electric vehicles in South Africa, starting with the Landtrek pickup [13]