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快手-W(01024):业绩超预期,期待AI提高平台变现效率
Soochow Securities· 2025-11-23 13:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 35.554 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. Adjusted net profit was 4.986 billion RMB, up 26.3% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The application of AI models, particularly the OneRec model, is beginning to enhance monetization efficiency across Kuaishou's ecosystem, contributing to a 4%-5% increase in online marketing service revenue in Q3 [8] - The report anticipates continued robust growth in the company's core business, driven by AI capabilities and the integration of content and e-commerce [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023: 113.47 billion RMB - 2024: 126.90 billion RMB - 2025: 142.12 billion RMB - 2026: 155.05 billion RMB - 2027: 167.07 billion RMB [1] - Adjusted net profit projections are: - 2023: 6.396 billion RMB - 2024: 15.335 billion RMB - 2025: 18.052 billion RMB - 2026: 20.015 billion RMB - 2027: 22.099 billion RMB [1] - The report adjusts the non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 20.6 billion RMB, 22.9 billion RMB, and 25.2 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to a non-IFRS P/E ratio of 12x, 11x, and 10x [8] Market Data - The closing price of Kuaishou is 64.00 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 210.21 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 3.37 and a one-year price range of 38.15 to 92.60 HKD [5][6]