OurWorks(Avavox)
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神州泰岳(300002):静待新游大规模推广后进展
HTSC· 2025-10-30 08:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 16.37 [7][5]. Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a critical transition between old and new growth drivers, with short-term performance under pressure but long-term potential in overseas SLG products and AI business commercialization [1][5]. - The existing games are experiencing a natural decline in revenue due to reduced marketing spend, but they still show strong resilience, with expectations of narrowing revenue decline in the upcoming quarters [2]. - The AI product OurWorks has been launched with a business model targeting cost reduction for SMEs, and while it is in the user accumulation phase, it is expected to contribute positively to revenue in the future [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.384 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.29% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 215 million, down 53.55% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 4.068 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.86%, and a net profit of RMB 724 million, down 33.77% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 56.17%, a decrease of 5.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin game business [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 961.53 million, RMB 1.401 billion, and RMB 1.605 billion, representing declines of 16.46%, 17.92%, and 20.63% respectively [5][11]. - The company is assigned a PE valuation of 23 times for 2026, reflecting its potential for new product elasticity and rapid AI application progress [5].