Q&A 苯酚丙酮、纤维素——大宗商品热点解读 20251211 摘要 产业链延伸增强企业抗风险能力，如广西华谊向下游拓展，中石化、盛 虹、恒力石化等在炼油和化工行业间延伸，产业链越长，盈利风险能力 越强。 反内卷主要途径包括淘汰老旧产能、低成本企业供应高成本企业，以及 提升自身生产能力挤压进口空间。中石化停产旧装置并投产新装置是例 证。 下游需求对环氧树脂和 PC 行业利润有一定支撑，但不足以完全反馈到 苯酚丙酮等上游原料，导致上游利润较薄弱。PC 受益于家电和汽车领域， 销售增速在 7%~10%。 丙酮下游市场中，双酚 A 占比超 30%，甲纸占 25%，异丙醇占 13%， 二甲基亚砜占 5%。双酚 A 开工稳定但利润不高，甲纸因 ACH 法和碳四 工艺及去年出口良好导致国内供应增加。 2025 年丙酮进口量增加 50%，主要原因是反倾销措施到期，以及日本、 新加坡、韩国和中国台湾等地因自身下游需求不景气而增加对中国出口。 2025 年分同行业的产能增速情况如何？ 从 2019 年到 2025 年，分同行业的扩产速度显著加快，基本上在五年内翻了 四倍。尤其是从 2022 年开始，扩产速度达到顶峰。例如，万华 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangzhou Dahua (600230.SH) has recently held board and supervisory meetings to approve several important proposals, including the company's 2024 performance, profit distribution plan, and 2025 private placement plan [1][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Cangzhou Dahua achieved operating revenue of 5.071 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.7385 million yuan, a decrease of 85.43% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was 25.7993 million yuan, down 86.31% year-on-year [1]. Main Products and Revenue - The main products of Cangzhou Dahua are TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) and PC (Polycarbonate). In 2024, TDI revenue was 2.156 billion yuan, down 12.96% year-on-year, while PC revenue was 1.395 billion yuan, up 7.94% year-on-year [2][4]. - The average selling price of TDI in 2024 was 12,703.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.41% from 15,381.68 yuan/ton in 2023. The average selling price of PC was 12,486.79 yuan/ton, down 1.64% from 12,695.60 yuan/ton in 2023 [5][6]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The cost of TDI in 2024 was 2.099 billion yuan, down 2.66% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 2.64%, a decrease of 10.30% year-on-year. For PC, the cost was 1.234 billion yuan, up 6.27% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 11.52%, an increase of 1.39% year-on-year [2][4]. - The average procurement price of key raw materials in 2024 showed mixed results: Toluene at 6,131.80 yuan/ton (down 6.81%), Phenol at 7,164.12 yuan/ton (up 0.96%), and Acetone at 6,297.35 yuan/ton (up 10.26%) [6]. Profit Distribution and Dividend - Cangzhou Dahua plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.21 yuan per share (including tax), totaling 8.6932 million yuan, which represents 31.34% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8][9]. - The company has seen a decreasing trend in cash dividends over the past three years, with total dividends of 126 million yuan, 57.428 million yuan, and 8.6932 million yuan for 2022 to 2024, respectively [9]. Future Financing Plans - Cangzhou Dahua is planning a private placement to raise up to 300 million yuan, not exceeding 20% of the net assets as of the end of the previous year. The funds will be used for main business projects and to supplement working capital [10].