Q&A 苯酚丙酮、纤维素——大宗商品热点解读 20251211 摘要 产业链延伸增强企业抗风险能力，如广西华谊向下游拓展，中石化、盛 虹、恒力石化等在炼油和化工行业间延伸，产业链越长，盈利风险能力 越强。 反内卷主要途径包括淘汰老旧产能、低成本企业供应高成本企业，以及 提升自身生产能力挤压进口空间。中石化停产旧装置并投产新装置是例 证。 下游需求对环氧树脂和 PC 行业利润有一定支撑，但不足以完全反馈到 苯酚丙酮等上游原料，导致上游利润较薄弱。PC 受益于家电和汽车领域， 销售增速在 7%~10%。 丙酮下游市场中，双酚 A 占比超 30%，甲纸占 25%，异丙醇占 13%， 二甲基亚砜占 5%。双酚 A 开工稳定但利润不高，甲纸因 ACH 法和碳四 工艺及去年出口良好导致国内供应增加。 2025 年丙酮进口量增加 50%，主要原因是反倾销措施到期，以及日本、 新加坡、韩国和中国台湾等地因自身下游需求不景气而增加对中国出口。 2025 年分同行业的产能增速情况如何？ 从 2019 年到 2025 年，分同行业的扩产速度显著加快，基本上在五年内翻了 四倍。尤其是从 2022 年开始，扩产速度达到顶峰。例如，万华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a leading state-owned enterprise in the chemical engineering sector, is actively engaging in green projects and innovative technologies to support national strategies and promote sustainable development [2][5][10]. Group 1: Company Background and Achievements - The company, established in 1958, has a rich history in the coal chemical industry, having completed over 70 pioneering projects in China, including the first coal-based methanol synthesis oil project and the first coal-to-natural gas project [1]. - It holds a leading position in various technologies such as methanol-to-gasoline (MTG) and toluene diisocyanate (TDI), with significant market shares in coal-to-natural gas and coking engineering [1]. - In 2024, the company ranked 71st in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry 500 [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Projects - The company is implementing the "135" strategy and focusing on strategic emerging industries, ecological and environmental protection, and high-value-added services to create new advantages and achieve growth [2][12]. - It is involved in significant projects like the hydrogen energy demonstration application in Guizhou and the world's largest coking park wastewater treatment plant in Shanxi, contributing to local sustainable development [5][9]. Group 3: Green Technology and Innovation - The company is advancing green technologies, including a low-carbon raw material gasification technology for producing green methanol, which is crucial for resource utilization and aligns with national carbon neutrality goals [10][11]. - It has developed a garbage gasification technology that transforms waste into hydrogen energy, contributing to pollution prevention and ecological civilization [7][10]. Group 4: International Engagement and Recognition - The company is actively participating in international exhibitions and projects, such as the first state-owned ammonium nitrate plant in Indonesia, showcasing its expertise in clean coal technology and green energy [18][21]. - It has received multiple awards for its engineering projects, including the prestigious Zhan Tianyou Award, highlighting its excellence in project planning, design, and management [13][12]. Group 5: Commitment to Sustainable Development - The company emphasizes green low-carbon development and is committed to transforming its operational model to support ecological and low-carbon economic growth [14][16]. - It has organized industry conferences to promote low-carbon concepts and technologies, enhancing its brand influence in the green sector [14][15].