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【重磅深度/光洋股份】FPC&低空经济&人形机器人“三擎驱动”,轴承龙头焕发新生
Core Viewpoint - The company has deepened its presence in the bearing industry for decades and is positioned as a leading player in the sector, with a significant rebound in performance since 2022, projecting a profitable trajectory into 2024 and beyond [2][24]. Group 1: Bearing Business Performance - The bearing segment is the company's primary business, benefiting from the continuous growth in China's automotive production and sales, as well as the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, leading to a rise in both volume and price [3][59]. - The average selling price (ASP) of bearings increased from 8.42 to 9.56 yuan/set, with bearing revenue reaching 742 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.84% [3][59]. - The synchronizer and planetary gear business, the second-largest segment, has seen a rebound in profitability, with a gross margin of 25.59% in the first half of 2025, up 5.08 percentage points year-on-year [3][74]. Group 2: Automotive Electronics and PCB Business - The company entered the automotive electronics sector in 2020, with revenue from PCB (FPC) steadily increasing, and gross margin improving from -98.17% to -17.18% by the first half of 2025 [5][94]. - The expansion into AI wearable devices has been initiated, with multiple leading companies already engaged, and production expected to ramp up between 2025 and 2027 [5][97]. - The automotive electronics market is projected to grow significantly, with the Chinese automotive electronics market expected to reach 1.51 trillion yuan by 2028, growing at a CAGR of approximately 7.5% from 2022 to 2028 [88][94]. Group 3: Low-altitude Economy and Robotics - The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) segment is a crucial part of the low-altitude economy, with a projected market size of 41 billion USD by 2040 in China, driven by the overlap with the automotive supply chain [6][109]. - The company has secured projects with leading domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers for flying car initiatives, with some projects expected to enter mass production by 2026 [6][109]. - The robotics segment is being developed with a focus on core components, leveraging existing technology and customer relationships to become a key supplier in the low-altitude economy and robotics industries [6][114]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.774 billion, 3.700 billion, and 4.795 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 108 million, 218 million, and 363 million yuan respectively, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [7][30]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 73, 36, and 22 times for 2025 to 2027, reflecting the company's potential for growth in the bearing sector and emerging industries [7][30].