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高盛:芯碁微装- 中高端印制电路板(PCB)设备驱动增长;积极向全球市场拓展
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-19 09:47
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to CFME, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance in the near term [1][9][16]. Core Insights - CFME is expected to see a revenue growth of 22% year-over-year and 27% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reaching Rmb308 million, driven by an upgrade in product mix towards mid-to-high-end PCB equipment [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding into global markets, including plans for a new subsidiary and plant in Thailand, which aims to capitalize on the growing PCB demand influenced by AI trends and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4]. - The earnings revision reflects an upward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of Rmb1,761 million in 2025, Rmb2,242 million in 2026, and Rmb2,754 million in 2027, representing increases of 9%, 12%, and 21% respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - The report projects gross profit margins to remain strong, with gross margins of 40.0% in 2025, 39.6% in 2026, and 38.7% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][4]. - Net income is expected to rise to Rmb328 million in 2025, Rmb400 million in 2026, and Rmb460 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10%, 16%, and 23% respectively [3][4]. - The operating income is forecasted to increase to Rmb381 million in 2025, Rmb469 million in 2026, and Rmb527 million in 2027, with corresponding operating margins of 21.7%, 20.9%, and 19.1% [3][4]. Valuation - The target price for CFME is set at Rmb66.7, based on a discounted P/E methodology using a 21x P/E on the 2027E EPS, discounted back to 2026E at a 10% cost of equity [9][14][16]. - The report indicates a downside potential of 8% from the current price of Rmb72.50, reinforcing the "Sell" rating [16].