未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 全球总量和新能源渗透率预测：欧洲/拉美/东南亚市场仍贡献较多增量 欧洲 ： 2025年 欧洲新能源渗透率超预期原因为平价车型放量&部分补贴重启。 展望2026年 ， 欧洲新能源补贴政策倾向低价BEV车型+本土化生产，供给端看2026年是新一轮平价EV上市/放 量节点。我们对欧洲/英国市场2026年新能源渗透率预期分别为30%/35%，预计同比2025年分别 +5.1pct/+4pct。 东南亚 ： 2025年 东南亚整体新能源渗透率表现超预期，中国车企/越南vinfast贡献主要增量； 多数国家明确了26年对进口新能源/直接购车优惠政策将收紧，促使车企加快车型导入与库存 准备带来抢装效应。此外中国厂商依托CBU税惠和本地建厂承诺实现成本优势，降低新能源车 购车门槛。 展望2026年 ，多国均不同程度地削弱了面向终端购车的优惠，更强调本地生产、 供应链投资。我们认为2026年东南亚地区新能源渗透率为19%，同比2025年+4.8pct，增速较 2025年下滑但仍保持温和增长。 拉美 ： 2025年 拉美新能源渗透率相较2024年提升幅度有限，主要原因在于各国政策重心多集 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) in China, highlighting the dominance of Chinese companies like BYD and Geely in the global PHEV market [3] - It contrasts the PHEV technology of Chinese manufacturers with Toyota's Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) technology, suggesting that Toyota's advantage may diminish in the PHEV sector [3] - The article emphasizes the current mainstream use of series PHEV configurations in Chinese vehicles, which primarily rely on electric motors for propulsion [3][4] Group 1 - The article notes that PHEVs are gaining traction in China, with BYD and Geely leading the global market [3] - It points out that the series configuration of PHEVs, where the engine is used solely for generating electricity, is prevalent among Chinese manufacturers [3] - The article mentions that Nissan is also utilizing a similar series approach in its vehicles [3] Group 2 - The article identifies a significant challenge for series PHEVs, which perform well at low to medium speeds but experience efficiency drops at high speeds [4] - It highlights the need for improved high-speed fuel efficiency in PHEVs due to China's vast geography and the demand for long-distance travel [4] - The article discusses Honda's e:HEV technology, which combines series and parallel configurations to enhance performance [4]