未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 电动化数据跟踪：2026年1月行业景气度略低预期，以旧换新政策落地 2026年1月2026年1月多数省市以旧换新政策细则仍处陆续落地中，行业零售表现仍受到一定干 扰，导致行业零售同比下滑明显；批发层面车企主动调节生产与库存节奏，呈现环比下行。1 月新能源汽车零售渗透率37.4%，同、环比分别-2.2/-11.3pct。1月乘用车行业渠道去库11.3万 辆，其中新能源车累库1.3万辆。1月新能源车竞争格局变动明显：比亚迪市占率13.7%，环 比-11.3pct；吉利市占率21.2%，环比+11.2pct。 全球化数据跟踪：2026年1月东南亚市场新能源渗透率超预期，比亚迪出口表现超预期 全球分区域新能源渗透率： 2026年1月欧洲、英国、拉美、大洋洲环比下滑；东南亚地区维持 高位，主要受泰国电动车补贴政策(EV 3.0)于1月31日截止的强刺激影响。 中国车企出口： 2026年1月中国车企出口乘用车58.9万辆，出口新能源乘用车26.4万辆，新能源 渗透率达44.8%。其中比亚迪1月出口表现超预期。 投资建议与风险提示 乘用车观点更新： 短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好 ...

Group 1 - The price competition in the automotive market has been initiated by joint venture car manufacturers, with significant price reductions observed in popular models like the Accord, which has seen a price drop of 100,000 yuan for the e:PHEV model, marking the highest discount since its launch [1] - The retail sales data indicates that the Accord sold approximately 13,800 units in January 2026, reflecting a 27% month-on-month decline, ranking 6th in the mid-size car segment, primarily driven by its fuel version [1] - Historically, models like the Accord and Camry have been popular among middle-aged consumers due to their reliability and low maintenance costs, but the rise of electric vehicles has forced these models to reduce prices significantly [1] Group 2 - The new generation of the Fit has also adopted a limited purchase marketing strategy, with its price reduced by 20,000 yuan to the 60,000 yuan range, and a limited availability of 3,000 units [2] - The automotive market remains competitive in the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan price range, with the automotive consumption index at a historical low of 31.1 in January [2] - A report from CITIC Securities indicates that the sales of mid to high-end electric vehicles are increasing, with A00 and A0 class vehicles selling 88,000 units, A-class vehicles 141,000 units, and B-class and above 399,000 units, reflecting a shift towards higher-end models due to new trade-in policies [2] Group 3 - The competition in the automotive market continues, with GAC Toyota launching the new fuel vehicle Venza AIR version, offering cash subsidies of 22,000 yuan and additional trade-in subsidies [3] - Dongfeng Nissan has introduced four new models, including a new version of the Sylphy with a limited-time discount of 10,000 yuan, and the new version of the Teana with a discount of 21,000 yuan [3] - Premium brands like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi are also offering substantial discounts, often exceeding 100,000 yuan, to capture market share [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the automotive industry. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by electrification and intelligence, with both challenges and opportunities arising from macroeconomic fluctuations, technological divergence, and evolving consumer demands [2]. - The report anticipates that 2026 may be the last year of double-digit growth for the new energy vehicle (NEV) market, with a projected sales volume of 2.4 million units, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 1% [13]. - The report highlights a decrease in the effectiveness of the "Two New" policies, with a projected 3.8% year-on-year growth in passenger car sales for 2025, down from previous years [8][12]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The effectiveness of policies is diminishing, leading to a slowdown in market growth, with 2025 passenger car sales expected to reach 23.74 million units, a 3.8% increase year-on-year [8]. - The NEV market share is projected to rise to 53.9% in 2025, with pure electric vehicles showing steady growth while plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles experience a decline [23][26]. - The report indicates that the growth momentum in the lower-tier markets is contributing to the overall market dynamics, with regional disparities in NEV development narrowing [3]. Policy and Economic Factors - The total amount of national subsidies is expected to decrease from 75 billion yuan per quarter to 62.5 billion yuan, potentially leading to a reduction in overall automotive subsidies [12]. - Economic growth is projected to rely heavily on policy support, with GDP growth forecasted between 4.2% and 5% for 2026, indicating a lack of consumer confidence and weak recovery in consumption [12]. Brand Performance - Chinese brands are experiencing a dual increase in volume and price, with independent NEV brands significantly boosting their market share to over 65% [46]. - The report notes that overseas brands are struggling to reverse their declining market share, particularly in the NEV segment, where their share has fallen below 10% [53]. Technological Advancements - The penetration of intelligent driving and smart cockpit features in NEVs is rapidly increasing, with smart cockpits reaching nearly 87% penetration and L2-level intelligent driving features at 66% [71]. - The report emphasizes that while overseas brands are improving their technological capabilities, they still lag behind Chinese brands in terms of market perception and differentiation [61]. Market Dynamics - The average retail price of vehicles is showing signs of recovery, but this is primarily attributed to changes in sales structure rather than genuine price increases across the board [90]. - The report suggests that the NEV market is entering a phase of adjustment, particularly for plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles, which are facing increased competition and regulatory challenges [41].

Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China is projected to reach a transaction volume of 20.1 million units by 2025, with used new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to exceed 1.6 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1] - The average growth rate of second-hand car sales has slowed down to 5.8% over the past five years, compared to an average of 10.3% in the previous decade, while the average profit margin in the industry has dropped to around 4% [1][3] - The average transaction price of second-hand cars has decreased from 66,700 yuan in March 2025 to 61,600 yuan in September 2025 [1] Market Trends - The proportion of registered second-hand car dealers increased to 73.2% in the first half of 2025, with 96 out of the top 100 companies being second-hand dealers [1] - The revenue from second-hand car sales for dealer groups has risen by 124% compared to 2024 [1] - The competition among second-hand car dealers is intensifying, with many individual operators exiting the market due to declining profits [2] Profitability Challenges - The average profit margin for second-hand cars is approximately 4%, with significant declines in profit per vehicle sold, from around 15,000 yuan five years ago to about 10,000 yuan currently [3] - Factors contributing to profit decline include price volatility of new cars, increased transparency in the market, and intensified competition [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand cars in 2025 is reported to be 64,100 yuan, a decrease of 140 yuan from 2024 [3] Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The penetration rate of second-hand NEVs has increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 12% by December 2025 [6] - The transaction price distribution for second-hand NEVs shows an increase in the share of vehicles priced between 30,000 to 80,000 yuan, while the share of vehicles priced below 30,000 yuan has decreased [6] - The average three-year depreciation rate for NEVs is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with NEVs averaging a 43% retention rate compared to 62% for fuel vehicles [7] Strategic Shifts - Companies are exploring new growth avenues such as NEVs and second-hand car exports to adapt to market changes [5] - The overall second-hand car market is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, while NEV transactions are projected to increase by approximately 50% year-on-year [7] - Major players like Yongda Automotive and Zhongsheng Automotive are shifting focus towards NEV channels and online sales models for second-hand vehicles [6][7]

根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料进行任何形式的转发。若您不 是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。 本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 公司发布2025年1月销量快报： 1月批发销量大幅调整，海外销量维持高位。1月批发总销量21.0万辆，同比-30%、环比-50%。分品牌看，王朝+海洋系列17.8万辆、方程豹2.2万辆、腾势 0.6万辆、仰望413辆。海外销量约10.0万辆，同比+51%（快报口径）、环比-25%（季节性），仍然维持同比高速增长状态。 批发节奏调整主要为控制终端库存与生产节奏。以旧换新政策以及新能源购置税政策落地后，并未拉动消费情绪，1月终端需求较低迷。公司2026年新品 周期有望在2月春节后逐步开启，新品上市前需要清理旧车库存，当下公司批发节奏调整主要为终端清库留足时间和空间。此外，上游碳酸锂、铝、铜等 基本原材料近期波动幅度加剧，对生产节奏或有影响。 市场担心需求及成本负面影响，看好行业龙头公司的应变能力。政策退坡后，终端需求表现较差，叠加上游 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 批发销量节奏调整，静待后续产品周期 目标价：113.8 元、116.3 港元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 805,565 | 943,584 | 1,070,539 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 3.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 35,214 | 47,042 | 59,979 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | -12.5% | 33.6% | 27.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.42 | 3.86 | 5.16 | 6.58 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 23 | 17 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 3 日收盘价 公司研究 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 ...

进入2月份，多家车企陆续披露1月份销量数据，行业运行态势逐步明朗。受春节临近、需求阶段性透支 等因素影响，1月份车市整体处于传统淡季，但新能源汽车板块仍保持较强韧性，头部车企凭借产品矩 阵和体系能力维持较高销量规模，行业分化特征进一步凸显。 具体来看，1月份，自主品牌阵营重新洗牌。上汽集团汽车销量为32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%，再度登 顶月销量榜首。紧随其后的是吉利汽车，汽车销量为27.02万辆，同比增长1%；昔日龙头比亚迪汽车销 量为21.01万辆，同比下滑30.11%。此外，奇瑞集团汽车销量为20.03万辆；广汽集团汽车销量为11.66万 辆，同比增长18.47%；长城汽车汽车销量为9.03万辆，同比增长11.59%；赛力斯汽车销量4.59万辆，同 比增长104.85%。 1月份，部分传统车企在新能源汽车与出口端的表现亦出现积极变化。例如，吉利汽车的海外出口总销 量同比实现翻倍增长；新能源汽车销量占销售总量的比例为46%，共销售12.43万辆，同比增长3%。上 汽通用汽车披露，1月份终端销量超5.1万辆，同比增长约8%，其中新能源车型销量同比增长接近90%， 出口销量同比增长超过一倍。奇瑞集团出口 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 秦梓月 SAC：S1350525070008 qinziyue@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 主机厂原材料涨价后续影响分析 ——汽车行业周报（20260126-20260201） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 2025Q4 以来碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等电池原材料及铜、铝等价格均出现上涨。2020 年以来汽车原材料价格的明显上涨主要分为两轮：第一轮为 2020 年（尤其 2020Q3 开始）~2022 年（主要截至 2022Q1），彼时汽车主要原材料价格出现普涨，其中碳 酸锂涨幅居前，电池级碳酸锂价格由 2020Q3 的平均 4 万元/吨涨至 2022Q4 的平均 55 万元/吨；第二轮则为 2025Q4 以来的碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等电池原材料及铜、铝 等价格的上涨，2026 年 1 月 28 日电池级碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂、LME 铜现货结算价、 中国铜 ...

2025年车险保费近万亿元 2025年，财产险公司原保费收入1.76万亿元，赔付支出1.17万亿元。按可比口径，行业汇总原保险保费 收入同比增长3.9%。分险种来看，车险、责任险、农险、健康险、意外险保费收入分别为9409亿元、 1428亿元、1555亿元、2274亿元、593亿元。 从公司层面看，2025年，人身险公司原保费收入4.36万亿元，赔付支出1.28万亿元。按可比口径，行业 汇总原保险保费收入同比增长8.9%。 分险种来看，寿险、意外险、健康险保费收入分别为3.56万亿元、368亿元、7699亿元。 值得关注的是，从2025年12月单月看，人身险公司原保费收入2152亿元，同比增长6.0%，由负大幅转 正，前值为-2.4%。华西证券(9.010, -0.21, -2.28%)认为，这主要与部分险企冲刺年度业绩目标有关。 东吴证券非银金融孙婷研究团队预计，上市险企2026年"开门红"表现亮眼。当前，保险产品预定利率吸 引力相对较高，有利于2026年新单保费增长。 近日，金融监管总局公布了2025年12月保险业经营情况。总体来看，2025年，我国保险业原保险保费收 入6.12万亿元，其中财产险1.47 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Market Insights - In December 2025, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 58.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points [2][6][14] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2025 were 2.27 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [11][14] - BYD maintained a market share of 25% in the NEV sector, while Geely's market share decreased to 11% [22][6] Group 2: Global Market Performance - In December 2025, Southeast Asia's NEV penetration rate exceeded expectations, with a significant contribution from VinFast, leading to a month-on-month increase [3][35] - Chinese automakers exported 641,000 passenger vehicles in December 2025, with 245,000 being NEVs, resulting in a NEV penetration rate of 38.2% [3][7] - The market share of Chinese brands in Southeast Asia reached 14.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points [51][62] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The old-for-new vehicle replacement policy is set to be implemented in January 2026, which is expected to stimulate demand in the passenger vehicle market [2][6] - The industry anticipates a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, driven by the new policy and a shift in consumer sentiment [4][6] - The focus for domestic investments is on companies less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as JAC Motors, and those expected to see growth in the high-end electric vehicle segment, including Geely and Great Wall Motors [4][6]