Summary of the Conference Call for 吉祥航空 Company Overview - **Company**: 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) - **Industry**: Aviation Key Points and Arguments Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - Aviation demand is closely linked to GDP growth, typically at a ratio of 1.2 to 1.8 times GDP growth. As of 2025, overall demand has recovered to 115% of 2019 levels, while supply growth has significantly slowed, leading to a tight balance between supply and demand in the market [2][5][10] - The increase in aircraft utilization is notable, with each additional hour of aircraft utilization contributing approximately 1 billion yuan to profits [2][5] Operational Challenges - 吉祥航空 is facing capacity constraints due to engine maintenance issues, specifically related to the PW1,100G engine recall by Pratt & Whitney. This has resulted in extended waiting times for repairs, but the company expects to gradually resolve these issues and improve aircraft utilization over the next two to three years [2][6][7] - The average daily utilization of the 787 wide-body aircraft has increased, enhancing profitability. The company currently operates 10 units of the 787 and has opened multiple international routes [3][12] Financial Environment - Oil prices have been declining since 2024, currently fluctuating around 60 USD, with expectations to drop further to the 30-40 USD range. This decline is expected to significantly reduce operational costs for airlines [2][8] - The appreciation of the yuan is alleviating financial pressure from dollar-denominated debts for airlines, creating a more favorable external environment for profitability [2][8] Market Position and Future Outlook - 民营航空公司 (private airlines) like 吉祥航空 may experience a quicker recovery once operational bottlenecks are resolved, compared to state-owned airlines that rely more on overall market improvements [9] - The company has implemented a new dividend policy starting in 2024, with a cash dividend ratio of 45%, and has initiated a share buyback plan, completing 400 million yuan in buybacks [3][17][18] Profitability Projections - Projected net profits for 吉祥航空 from 2025 to 2027 are 1.007 billion yuan, 1.571 billion yuan, and 2.294 billion yuan, respectively. The company is expected to benefit from improved aircraft utilization and industry supply-demand dynamics [21] - The company is currently valued at approximately 28 to 29 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential, and maintains a "buy" rating [21] Additional Considerations - The impact of geopolitical tensions on specific routes, such as those between China and Japan, has been minimal, as the company can reallocate resources to other popular destinations [14] - The subsidiary 九元航空 has shown significant improvement, achieving a net profit of 230 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [15] Conclusion 吉祥航空 is positioned to benefit from favorable market conditions, operational improvements, and strategic financial policies, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming years despite current challenges related to engine maintenance and capacity constraints.