华夏航空 11 月股价上涨 30%，领跑上市航司。前 11 个月民航支线补 贴约 3,100 元/小时，同比增长超 10%，较疫情前翻倍。预计全年飞机 利用率 8.1 小时，2026 年有望达 8.5 小时，反映运营效率提升潜力。 公司面临机长短缺（C909 机型缺口 20%）和普惠发动机维修挑战（22 台受影响，预计明年底解决 15 台），影响轮档小时数恢复，预计全年 22.3 万小时，低于预期。 9 月起票价同比转正，增幅 3-4%。11 月客座率达 82%，创历史新高。 前三季度江补平均 1.6 亿元/季度，同比增长超 25%，显示盈利能力改 善。 机队规模达 78 架，年底预计 80 架（31 架 A320、33 架 CRJ900、16 架 C909）。计划处置 CRJ900 并引进 3 架 A320 和 6 架 C909，总量 或有 1-2 架增量，优化机队结构。 航班换季后，时刻同比增加 4.5%，西北区域（兰州）增幅 82%，华东 区域（舟山新增基地）增幅近 40%，新疆增加 11%，反映公司战略重 点区域调整。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）以来，华夏航空的经营情况如何？未来展望如何？ 今年（2 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 吉祥航空 Company Overview - **Company**: 吉祥航空 (Juneyao Airlines) - **Industry**: Aviation Key Points and Arguments Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - Aviation demand is closely linked to GDP growth, typically at a ratio of 1.2 to 1.8 times GDP growth. As of 2025, overall demand has recovered to 115% of 2019 levels, while supply growth has significantly slowed, leading to a tight balance between supply and demand in the market [2][5][10] - The increase in aircraft utilization is notable, with each additional hour of aircraft utilization contributing approximately 1 billion yuan to profits [2][5] Operational Challenges - 吉祥航空 is facing capacity constraints due to engine maintenance issues, specifically related to the PW1,100G engine recall by Pratt & Whitney. This has resulted in extended waiting times for repairs, but the company expects to gradually resolve these issues and improve aircraft utilization over the next two to three years [2][6][7] - The average daily utilization of the 787 wide-body aircraft has increased, enhancing profitability. The company currently operates 10 units of the 787 and has opened multiple international routes [3][12] Financial Environment - Oil prices have been declining since 2024, currently fluctuating around 60 USD, with expectations to drop further to the 30-40 USD range. This decline is expected to significantly reduce operational costs for airlines [2][8] - The appreciation of the yuan is alleviating financial pressure from dollar-denominated debts for airlines, creating a more favorable external environment for profitability [2][8] Market Position and Future Outlook - 民营航空公司 (private airlines) like 吉祥航空 may experience a quicker recovery once operational bottlenecks are resolved, compared to state-owned airlines that rely more on overall market improvements [9] - The company has implemented a new dividend policy starting in 2024, with a cash dividend ratio of 45%, and has initiated a share buyback plan, completing 400 million yuan in buybacks [3][17][18] Profitability Projections - Projected net profits for 吉祥航空 from 2025 to 2027 are 1.007 billion yuan, 1.571 billion yuan, and 2.294 billion yuan, respectively. The company is expected to benefit from improved aircraft utilization and industry supply-demand dynamics [21] - The company is currently valued at approximately 28 to 29 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential, and maintains a "buy" rating [21] Additional Considerations - The impact of geopolitical tensions on specific routes, such as those between China and Japan, has been minimal, as the company can reallocate resources to other popular destinations [14] - The subsidiary 九元航空 has shown significant improvement, achieving a net profit of 230 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [15] Conclusion 吉祥航空 is positioned to benefit from favorable market conditions, operational improvements, and strategic financial policies, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming years despite current challenges related to engine maintenance and capacity constraints.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced a decline in stock price and is facing challenges with aircraft utilization due to engine issues, but it has reported a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2025 compared to the previous year. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the company's stock closed at 12.6 yuan, down 0.71% from the previous week [1] - The stock reached a high of 12.87 yuan and a low of 12.37 yuan during the week [1] - The current market capitalization is 27.518 billion yuan, ranking 7th in the aviation sector and 678th among A-shares [1] Group 2: Aircraft and Operations - The company plans to continue optimizing its route network and will announce new international routes in its operational data releases [2] - The company has seen a nearly 40% increase in net profit for Q2 2025 compared to the same period last year, attributed to increased international capacity and improved passenger load factors [2][4] - The company is adjusting its flight schedules and aircraft types to compensate for reduced aircraft utilization due to engine maintenance issues [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge through ongoing strategic partnerships, including code-sharing and domestic route collaborations [2]