Key Takeaways EXOD posts 51% revenue growth and an 82% rise in Q3 swap volume.Partner additions and entry into stablecoin payments boost momentum.EXOD holds $315M in liquid assets and trades at a 1.41X price-to-book ratio.Exodus Movement (EXOD) is growing fast as a self-custodial wallet and Web3 financial services solution provider. Exodus Movement revenues climbed 51% year over year on the back of rising digital asset prices throughout 2025. The company also saw 82% year-over-year growth in swap volume in ...

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings' stock has decreased by 27.5% year-to-date due to macroeconomic uncertainties, increased competition, and tariff-related challenges in Asia [1][7] - Competitors like Visa and Mastercard have seen stock gains of 5.7% and 3.5% respectively, intensifying pressure on PayPal's market position [1] Strategic Transformation - PayPal is evolving from a payments company to a comprehensive commerce platform, introducing tools like "PayPal Ads Manager" and "PayPal links" to enhance user engagement and revenue generation for small businesses [3][4] - The launch of "PayPal World" integrates multiple payment systems and digital wallets, expanding access for merchants and consumers [3] Growth Drivers - Venmo is a key growth driver, with Q3 2025 revenues increasing by 20% year-over-year and total payment volume (TPV) growing by 14% [8] - Branded experiences also contribute to growth, with TPV increasing by 8% on a currency-neutral basis in Q3 2025, outpacing online-only branded checkout TPV growth [9] Valuation and Estimates - PayPal shares are currently trading at a low valuation, with a forward 12-month P/E of 10.62X compared to the industry average of 20.25X and competitors like Visa and Mastercard [10] - Positive estimate revisions indicate expected earnings growth, with 2025 earnings projected at $5.34 per share, reflecting a 14.8% increase over 2024 [11] Long-term Opportunities - The company is focusing on four key growth areas: enhancing checkout experiences, scaling Venmo, improving payment services profitability, and investing in AI and stablecoins [13] - PayPal's scale, with over $458.1 billion in quarterly TPV, provides resilience and strengthens its long-term investment case [14]

PayPal Holdings Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: PayPal Holdings (NasdaqGS:PYPL) - **Date**: November 13, 2025 - **Key Speaker**: Diego Scott, General Manager of PayPal's Consumer Group Core Industry Insights - **Consumer Strategy**: PayPal's consumer strategy is built on three pillars: 1. Pay Everywhere 2. Pay Your Way 3. Driving Value for Consumers [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Pay Everywhere - **Omnichannel Expansion**: PayPal aims to enhance its omnichannel presence, allowing consumers to use PayPal both online and offline, breaking the traditional perception of PayPal as an online-only payment method [3][4]. - **Debit Card Growth**: The company has repositioned its debit card offering, achieving 6 million new first-time users (FTUs) and a 70% year-over-year growth in total payment volume (TPV) on debit cards [4]. Checkout Experience - **Frictionless Checkout**: PayPal has upgraded its checkout experience, with 25% of global transactions now utilizing the new integration, leading to improved conversion rates of 2-5 percentage points [7][8][10]. - **Biometric Integration**: The introduction of biometric features is aimed at reducing friction in the checkout process [8]. Loyalty and Rewards - **Smart Wallet Initiative**: PayPal is developing a "smart wallet" that integrates various financial products, enhancing user experience and driving monetization through increased product usage [11][12][13]. - **PayPal Plus Program**: A new rewards program launched in the U.K. allows users to earn points across multiple financial institutions, aiming to simplify the rewards process for consumers [22][24]. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) - **Market Position**: PayPal's BNPL service is projected to generate $40 billion in TPV this year, with a 30% increase in TPV for customers using BNPL [17][18]. - **Geographic Expansion**: The BNPL service has recently launched in Canada, with plans for further geographic expansion [18]. Venmo Insights - **Revenue Growth**: Venmo's revenues are growing at 20%, with a goal to exceed $2 billion by 2027. The platform is focusing on monetization strategies targeting its affluent user base [32][35]. - **User Engagement**: Venmo has crossed $1 billion in TPV, growing 40% year-over-year, with significant increases in funds being brought into the platform [34][35]. Future Initiatives - **Agentic Commerce**: PayPal is investing in Agentic Commerce, aiming to be a leader in the integration of AI and shopping experiences [50][51]. - **Stablecoin Interest**: There is growing interest in stablecoins among consumers and merchants, particularly in regions with unstable currencies [58]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Trust**: PayPal's established trust and security are seen as critical factors in its ability to succeed in the evolving payment landscape, especially with younger consumers [56]. - **Interoperability**: The integration of Venmo and PayPal is being explored to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the PayPal conference, highlighting the company's focus on expanding its consumer offerings and enhancing user engagement through innovative payment solutions.

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings (PYPL) reported strong Q3 2025 results, with both earnings per share (EPS) and revenues exceeding expectations, yet the stock price fell by 7% post-announcement [1][2] Financial Performance - PayPal's Q3 net revenues reached $8.42 billion, a 7.3% increase year over year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $8.26 billion [3] - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.34, reflecting an 11.7% year-over-year increase and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.19 [3] - Total Payment Volume (TPV) grew by 8.4% to $458.09 billion, while transaction margin dollars increased by 6% to $3.87 billion [3] - Active accounts rose by 1% year over year to 438 million [3] Guidance and Share Repurchases - The company raised its full-year guidance for non-GAAP EPS to $5.35-$5.39, up from $5.15-$5.30, and reaffirmed free cash flow guidance at $6-$7 billion [4] - PayPal completed $1.5 billion in share repurchases during Q3, totaling $5.7 billion over the past four quarters, with projections of approximately $6 billion in share repurchases for 2025 [4] Market Reaction and Concerns - Despite strong earnings, the market expressed skepticism regarding the sustainability of growth drivers, particularly due to softer consumer discretionary spending in Europe and the U.S. [5][6] - Payment transactions decreased by 5% to 6.3 billion, influenced by changes in product and merchant mix, as well as foreign exchange hedges [6] - Transaction losses increased by 50% year over year, primarily due to a rise in fraud incidents [7] Growth Drivers - Venmo's TPV grew by 14%, with revenues increasing by 20%, indicating strong momentum in digital payments [10][11] - Venmo's user base is expanding, with nearly 100 million active accounts and a significant increase in debit card usage [12] - Branded checkout TPV grew by 5% on a currency-neutral basis, despite global macroeconomic challenges [13] Strategic Initiatives - PayPal signed a two-year agreement with Blue Owl Capital for $7 billion in "Pay in 4" loans and partnered with Google for enhanced digital commerce experiences [14] - The company is exploring AI-powered commerce experiences and has integrated its stablecoin PYUSD across platforms [15] Valuation and Market Position - PYPL shares have declined 19.9% year to date, attributed to increased competition in the fintech sector and broader macroeconomic pressures [16] - PayPal shares are currently trading at a forward P/E of 11.91X, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.70X and competitors like Visa and Mastercard [18] Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $5.29 per share, indicating a 13.8% growth over 2024, with a projected increase to $5.81 per share in 2026 [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PayPal is on pace for 6% to 7% growth in transaction margin dollars in 2025, a significant improvement from negative growth two years ago [3] - Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased by 12%, reflecting strong transaction margin performance [6] - Non-GAAP operating income grew by 6% to nearly $1.6 billion, with adjusted free cash flow at $2.3 billion for the quarter [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The branded experiences total payment volume (TPV) grew by 8% on a currency-neutral basis, with U.S. branded experiences TPV growth accelerating to 10% [10][31] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) business sustained a volume growth of 20% quarter after quarter, with expectations to process close to $40 billion in BNPL TPV in 2025 [4][17] - Venmo's TPV growth accelerated to 14%, with revenue expected to reach $1.7 billion this year, up more than 20% [20][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Monthly active accounts grew by 2% year over year to 227 million, with transactions per active account growing by 5% [29][30] - The overall total payment volume accelerated to 8% growth, reaching over $458 billion [30] - Transaction revenue grew by 6% to $7.5 billion, while other value-added services revenue increased by 15% to $895 million [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PayPal is focusing on profitable growth and expanding its addressable market beyond online payments, with a clear strategy to enhance branded experiences and omnichannel presence [3][5] - The company is initiating a dividend as part of its capital allocation strategy, alongside ongoing share buybacks [5][38] - PayPal aims to leverage partnerships and innovations in agentic commerce to enhance its competitive position [26][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the business's long-term growth potential, expecting high single-digit transaction margin dollar growth and non-GAAP EPS growth in the teens or better [5][6] - The company acknowledged challenges in the macroeconomic environment but remains focused on executing its strategic initiatives [32][39] - Management plans to increase investments in product attachment and habituation to drive future growth [40] Other Important Information - PayPal's strong foundation and differentiated competitive advantages position it well to capture a growing addressable market [5][43] - The company is actively managing its cost structure while reinvesting in key growth initiatives [36][37] Q&A Session Summary Question: Has agentic commerce changed PayPal's strategic priorities? - Management stated that agentic commerce is an evolution of their existing strategy, aiming to be available wherever consumers want to pay and merchants want to sell [48][49] Question: How should investors think about the overall path for branded checkout growth? - Management highlighted consistent mid-single-digit growth in branded checkout, with macro-related deceleration observed in September [56][58] Question: Can you provide insights on the Buy Now, Pay Later market share? - Management noted strong growth in BNPL, particularly in the U.S., and emphasized the importance of meeting customers' needs earlier in the purchasing process [62][64] Question: What is the growth trajectory for Venmo? - Management expressed excitement about Venmo's growth, highlighting increased active users and the potential for higher average revenue per account (ARPA) as new products are introduced [66][70]

Core Insights - PayPal is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, with anticipated revenue growth of approximately 4% on a currency-neutral basis and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) between $1.18 and $1.22, aligning with the previous year's figures at the midpoint [1][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is $8.25 billion, reflecting a 5.18% increase from the same quarter last year [1][5] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings is $1.19 per share, indicating a slight decline of 0.83% from the previous year's reported figure [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate stands at $33.14 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 4.21%, while the full-year EPS consensus is $5.23, suggesting a 12.47% increase year-over-year [5] Transaction Volume and Margins - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PayPal's Transaction revenues is $7.44 billion, indicating a 5.2% increase from the year-ago quarter [13] - PayPal anticipates transaction margin dollars to range between $3.76 billion and $3.82 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase at the midpoint [14] Total Payment Volume (TPV) and Active Accounts - The consensus mark for TPV is $448.938 billion, suggesting a 6.2% year-over-year growth, with active accounts expected to reach 439.1 million, up from 432 million a year ago [15] - However, the estimated number of payment transactions is projected at 6.558 billion, slightly below the previous year's figure of 6.631 billion [15] Strategic Initiatives and Partnerships - PayPal is transforming into a full commerce platform, focusing on enhancing the online payment experience and investing in AI for personalized commerce and fraud detection [7][8] - Recent strategic moves include a two-year agreement with Blue Owl Capital for $7 billion in "Pay in 4" loans and a partnership with Google to improve digital commerce experiences [11] Competitive Landscape and Valuation - PayPal shares have declined 18.2% year-to-date, contrasting with a 16.7% rise in the S&P 500, indicating competitive pressure from rivals like Visa and Mastercard [17][18] - Despite the struggles, PayPal's shares are considered undervalued, trading at a forward P/E of 12.25X compared to the industry average of 21.58X [19] Long-term Growth Potential - PayPal is evolving from a payment processor to a comprehensive commerce partner, aiming to strengthen consumer-merchant connections and enhance user experience [21] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for digital wallets and peer-to-peer payments, presenting a favorable entry point for investors [22]

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is trading at a low valuation with a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 11.93, significantly below its three-year average of 15.05 and the industry average of 21.55, indicating a potential investment opportunity [1][6][16] - The valuation gap compared to peers like Visa (26.42X) and Mastercard (31.18X) raises questions about whether this dislocation presents an attractive entry point for investors [2][16] - Despite the low valuation, PayPal faces challenges including macroeconomic uncertainty, competition from fintech, and the need for innovation in the payment landscape [3][4] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - PayPal's shares have declined 21.1% year-to-date due to various market pressures, including fraud concerns in Europe and slowing U.S. retail spending [4] - Earnings estimates show a projected growth of 12.5% for 2025 and 10.6% for 2026, indicating improving fundamentals [6][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $5.23 per share, with a further increase to $5.79 per share in 2026, suggesting that upward revisions may not be fully reflected in the current share price [7][8] Innovation and Strategic Partnerships - PayPal has formed a multi-year partnership with Google to enhance digital commerce experiences using AI, integrating PayPal's services across Google products [9] - The introduction of PayPal Links allows users to send and receive money easily, driving customer acquisition and ecosystem integration [11] - The "PayPal World" initiative aims to create interoperability among global wallet users, potentially transforming PayPal into a global commerce network [12] Growth Drivers - Venmo is a significant growth driver, with revenues increasing over 20% in Q2 2025 and total payment volume growing 12% [14] - Branded checkout is expanding, with over 60% of U.S. branded volume transacted through PayPal's upgraded experience, and international rollouts are in progress [15] - PayPal's initiatives in AI, stablecoins, and global commerce position it well for future growth [13][17] Investment Perspective - PayPal's current valuation suggests that the market may be underestimating its long-term potential, presenting a buy opportunity for investors [16][18] - The company's strong balance sheet and multi-faceted growth strategy reinforce confidence in its recovery path despite near-term challenges [16][17]

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings is a leading player in digital payments with over 434 million active accounts and a market capitalization of approximately $66 billion as of mid-September 2025 [2] - The company's stock price is around $68 per share, with a price-to-earnings ratio close to 15 and earnings per share at $4, indicating relative affordability compared to the tech sector [2] Financial Performance - The last two years have shown inconsistent financial performance, with solid profits and free cash flow allowing for share buybacks, but concerns over branded checkout volume weakness [3] - Increased competition from rivals like Apple Pay, Stripe, Adyen, and Block is raising market share concerns, alongside heightened regulatory scrutiny and pressures on transaction fees [3] Growth Initiatives - PayPal is pursuing growth through "PayPal World," a cross-border payments platform aimed at connecting various domestic payment systems and digital wallets, with partnerships established in key markets [3] - A multi-year partnership with Google aims to integrate AI-driven payment solutions into Google's ecosystem, enhancing PayPal's reach and competitive positioning [4] - Investment in AI tools for fraud detection and risk management is being prioritized, alongside improvements in crypto-enabled payment capabilities that could reduce cross-border transaction costs by up to 90% [5] Market Sentiment - Analysts have a mixed outlook, with consensus price targets around $83, suggesting a potential upside of 20-25%, while some forecasts reach as high as $120 [6] - Skeptics warn of potential declines into the low $60s if branded volume growth falters or if competitive and regulatory pressures increase [6] Key Metrics to Monitor - Important metrics for long-term investors include the adoption of PayPal World, traction in emerging markets, growth in crypto transactions, and the effectiveness of AI initiatives in reducing costs and enhancing margins [6]

Core Insights - PayPal has launched a new peer-to-peer payment service called PayPal links, allowing users to send and receive funds via personalized, one-time links that can be shared in various communication channels [2][3][4] Company Developments - The new service enables users to create unique links after entering payment details in the PayPal app, which can be shared through texts, emails, or chat [3][4] - Each link is designed for one-time use and expires after 10 days if unclaimed, with funds being immediately accessible [4] - The service is currently available for PayPal users in the U.S., with plans for expansion into the U.K., Italy, and other markets [4] Industry Trends - Peer-to-peer payment platforms are increasingly popular, especially among younger consumers who favor quick and seamless transactions [5][6] - Research indicates that 53% of consumers aged 18-25 and 50% of those aged 26-41 use P2P apps more frequently due to economic pressures like inflation, contributing to a 27% growth in platforms like Zelle [6] - The rise of P2P payments has led to the emergence of the super app trend, with companies integrating these payment services into their offerings, as 70% of consumers, particularly higher-income individuals, show interest in using super apps [7]

Core Insights - The fintech industry is highly competitive, with PayPal and StoneCo as prominent players, each focusing on different market segments [1][2] - PayPal is evolving into a comprehensive commerce ecosystem, while StoneCo is concentrating on micro, small, and medium-sized businesses in Brazil and Latin America [1][2] PayPal Overview - PayPal is focusing on four strategic growth pillars: winning checkout, scaling omni, growing Venmo, and driving PSP profitability [3] - Venmo's revenue increased over 20% in Q2, with total payment volume (TPV) growing 12%, marking the highest growth rate in three years [3] - Branded checkout is a significant growth driver, with over 60% of branded volume in the U.S. flowing through PayPal's enhanced platform [4] - PayPal launched PayPal World, a global wallet partnership, expanding access to over 2 billion consumers [5] - Despite a 6% rise in TPV, payment transactions fell by 5%, indicating some engagement challenges [6] StoneCo Overview - StoneCo reported a 27% year-over-year growth in adjusted net income and a consolidated ROE of 22% in Q2 2025 [7] - The company is divesting non-core assets to focus on financial services, targeting a total addressable market of BRL 100 billion [7] - The MSMB payments segment grew, with a 17% increase in active clients and a 12% rise in total payment volume [8] - Banking active clients increased by 23% to 3.3 million, with client deposits up 36% year over year [9] - StoneCo's disciplined approach to credit provisioning and funding costs supports its growth strategy [10] Financial Performance and Estimates - PayPal's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest increases of 3.97% and 12.47%, respectively [11] - StoneCo's 2025 sales are expected to rise by 7.56%, with EPS projected to jump by 14.07% [12] - PayPal shares are trading at a forward P/E of 11.99X, while StoneCo is at 10.93X [14] Market Positioning - Over the past three months, StoneCo has outperformed PayPal and the S&P 500 [15] - PayPal's global scale and diverse offerings appeal to investors, while StoneCo's focus on Brazil's MSMB segment presents significant growth potential [18] - StoneCo is viewed as a more compelling buy for growth-oriented investors, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) compared to PayPal's Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [19]