Key Takeaways GSK vaccine sales fell in the U.S. as Shingrix and Arexvy declined sharply in early 2025.Revised ACIP guidance narrowed Arexvy's eligible population, hurting sales momentum.Penmenvy approval and pipeline efforts may aid growth, but benefits will take time.GSK plc (GSK) is one of the key vaccine makers in the world, marketing vaccines to help prevent infectious diseases like Respiratory Syncytial Virus or RSV, meningitis, shingles, hepatitis and many more.GSK’s Vaccine sales are declining in th ...

Core Insights - GSK stock has increased by 21.5% over the past six months, driven by strong performance in the Specialty Medicines unit, regulatory successes, and a positive long-term outlook despite challenges in the Vaccines unit and economic pressures [2][22]. Specialty Medicines Unit Performance - The Specialty Medicines unit has shown significant sales growth, with a 19% increase in 2024 and a 17% rise in Q1 2025, primarily due to successful launches in Oncology and long-acting HIV medicines [3][4]. - Key products driving growth include Nucala, Dovato, Cabenuva, Apretude, Jemperli, and Ojjaara, with expectations for low double-digit sales growth in 2025 despite the Inflation Reduction Act's impact [4][9]. - Specialty Medicines currently accounts for approximately 40% of GSK's sales and is projected to exceed 50% by 2031 [4]. Promising Pipeline Developments - GSK is increasing R&D investments in long-acting and specialty medicines across various therapeutic areas, including Respiratory, Immunology & Inflammation, Oncology, and HIV [5]. - Recent approvals include the pentavalent MenABCWY vaccine and Blujepa for UTI treatment, with Nucala receiving approval for COPD in May 2025 [5][6]. - GSK anticipates launching five new products in 2025, including Blenrep and depemokimab, with several already approved in the U.S. [7]. Vaccine Sales Challenges - Vaccine sales declined by 6% in Q1 2025, primarily due to lower demand for the RSV vaccine Arexvy and shingles vaccine Shingrix [8][10]. - Shingrix sales fell by 21% in Q1 2025, and Arexvy's global sales dropped by 57%, attributed to revised vaccination recommendations and challenges in reaching consumers [10][11]. - The company expects a low single-digit percentage decline in Vaccine sales for 2025 due to macroeconomic challenges and potential policy changes [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - GSK stock has outperformed the industry and S&P 500, rising 20.1% year-to-date compared to a 4.0% industry increase [13]. - The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.63, below the industry average of 15.63, indicating an attractive valuation relative to peers [17]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have increased from $4.26 to $4.42 per share, reflecting analysts' positive outlook for future growth [20]. Future Growth Expectations - GSK anticipates over 7% sales growth and more than 11% core operating profit growth on a CAGR basis from 2021 to 2026, driven by Specialty Medicines and improvements in General Medicines [23]. - The company has resolved most Zantac litigations, alleviating a significant overhang on the stock [25].

Group 1: Acquisition Details - GSK has signed an agreement to acquire efimosfermin alfa from Boston Pharmaceuticals for an upfront payment of $1.2 billion, with potential milestone payments of up to $800 million [5] - Efimosfermin is an investigational long-acting variant of FGF21 protein aimed at treating steatotic liver disease (SLD) and is currently in mid-stage studies for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) [2][3] Group 2: Drug Development and Market Potential - GSK plans to develop efimosfermin as a monotherapy and in combination with its investigational siRNA therapeutic, GSK'990, also targeting SLD [3] - The company believes efimosfermin could become the new standard-of-care for MASH, with a commercial launch expected in 2029 [4] Group 3: Strategic Intent and Future Outlook - The acquisition aligns with GSK's strategy to expand its pipeline as key drugs approach the end of their exclusivity period, particularly the dolutegravir HIV franchise expiring in 2028-2029 [9] - GSK aims to generate sales exceeding £40 billion by 2031, focusing on therapeutic areas such as HIV, immunology/respiratory, and oncology, with 18 candidates in late-stage development or regulatory review [10] Group 4: Recent Product Launches and Regulatory Updates - GSK expects to launch five new products or line extensions this year, with two already approved by the FDA [11] - Regulatory decisions on three additional candidates are pending, with final decisions expected throughout 2025 [11] Group 5: Setbacks in Drug Development - GSK has decided to end the development of the anti-TIGIT antibody belrestotug, which did not meet established efficacy criteria [12][13] - This decision represents a setback for GSK's oncology ambitions, following a $625 million upfront payment made in 2021 for the rights to the drug [13]