Key Takeaways Fed rate pause and mixed data on inflation and jobs keep volatility in focus.Value screen targets stocks with 10% earnings yield and solid EPS growth outlook.DVA, F, CGAU, LUV and PAX stand out with strong earnings growth estimates.The S&P 500 index closed higher yesterday as investors tried to make sense of mixed signals from the Federal Reserve. Policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at their latest meeting, but there is no clear agreement on what comes next. While several officials are ...

Ares Management Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Ares Management (NYSE: ARES) is one of the largest alternative asset managers globally, with a significant presence in non-investment grade private credit. The firm's assets under management (AUM) have increased from approximately $200 billion five years ago to $600 billion currently, marking a threefold growth [3][4]. Macro Environment and Industry Outlook - The macroeconomic backdrop for 2026 is viewed positively, with expectations for increased IPOs and M&A activity. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a pro-business administration are seen as supportive factors for the deal environment [4][5]. - Ares Management reported a record fourth quarter in 2025, deploying about $46 billion in capital, with a record-high pipeline as of January 2026, indicating strong transaction volumes anticipated in the first half of the year [5][6]. - The firm is optimistic about the impact of AI on investment opportunities, emphasizing that while some companies may face disruption, others will benefit from improved margins and productivity [10][11]. Strategic Priorities - Ares Management's strategic priorities for the year include: 1. Expansion in digital infrastructure, particularly in Japan, where the firm aims to diversify its product offerings [15][18]. 2. Continued development of a vertically integrated real estate approach, focusing on owning and managing real estate assets [19][20]. 3. Capturing margin opportunities across the business through technology investments and organizational redesign [20]. 4. While private equity is not a top priority, the firm remains open to expanding its capabilities in this area to meet client demand and enhance value creation [21][22]. Financial Guidance - Ares Management has reaffirmed its growth targets, aiming for a 16%-20% annual growth in fee-related earnings (FRE) and over 20% growth in revenue income (RI) [27][28]. The firm also announced a 20% increase in its dividend, reflecting confidence in its financial outlook [28]. Private Credit Insights - Ares Management is recognized as a leading non-investment grade private credit lender, with a strong performance track record attributed to its origination-led strategy and deep industry expertise [32][37]. - The firm maintains a selective investment approach, approving only 3%-5% of transactions, which contributes to its high asset selectivity and performance [32][35]. - The private credit market is characterized by a concentration of capital among top managers, with Ares Management positioned favorably due to its scale and incumbency advantages [53][54]. Market Dynamics and Competition - The relationship between banks and private credit managers is described as symbiotic rather than competitive. Ares Management benefits from banks' de-risking strategies, which create opportunities for private credit to fill the gap in the market [48][50]. - Despite some negative narratives surrounding private credit, Ares Management reports positive net flows and a strong appetite for private credit among institutional clients [43][44]. Wealth Management Strategy - Ares Management has strategically built its wealth management channel, focusing on ensuring a right-to-win in the market. The firm has achieved a top 3 distributor position in the wealth channel and aims to deepen relationships with existing distribution partners [60][62]. - The firm is cautious about adding new products, preferring to scale existing offerings and ensure they align with the overall business strategy [64][65]. AI Implementation - Ares Management has integrated AI capabilities into its operations, focusing on enhancing productivity and investment outcomes. The firm is actively deploying AI tools across various functions, including investment analysis and sales optimization [68][70]. - The early results from AI initiatives have shown promise, contributing to a slowdown in organic headcount growth while maintaining productivity levels [71]. Conclusion - Ares Management is well-positioned for growth in 2026, with a strong focus on strategic priorities, financial performance, and leveraging technology to enhance its operations and investment capabilities. The firm remains optimistic about the macroeconomic environment and the opportunities presented by AI and digital infrastructure.

Core Insights - KKR & Co. is preparing for its quarterly earnings release on February 5, 2026, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $1.21 and revenue of approximately $1.78 billion [1][6] Revenue and Growth - KKR is expected to see a revenue increase driven by a 20.4% rise in management fees and a 16.1% growth in assets under management (AUM) for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][6] - Despite an anticipated decline in earnings compared to the previous year, KKR has consistently outperformed earnings expectations, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters [2] Financial Performance - The divestiture of Janney units has allowed KKR to monetize assets and focus on its core alternative investments, with significant growth in AUM and transaction fees in its capital markets business [3] - KKR's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the preceding quarter, although rising expenses have presented challenges [3] Valuation Metrics - KKR's financial metrics indicate a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 39.14, a price-to-sales ratio of about 5.50, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 7.40 [4][6] - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 23.51, with an earnings yield of about 2.55% [5] - KKR's debt-to-equity ratio stands at approximately 1.83, and its current ratio is around 4.20, indicating a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Patria reported organic fundraising of $1.7 billion in Q4 2025 and a record $7.7 billion for the full year, exceeding the revised target of $6.6 billion by over $1 billion [5][34] - Fee-related earnings reached $203 million in 2025, up 19% year-over-year, with distributable earnings per share at $1.27 [6][23] - Total fee revenue for Q4 was $101 million, an increase of 8% year-over-year, while full-year total fee revenue reached $344 million, up 14% [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure strategies raised approximately $2.3 billion in 2025, significantly higher than the previous year, driven by strong global interest [11] - The credit platform raised a record $1.8 billion in 2025, surpassing the previous record of $1.4 billion in 2024 [12] - Real estate strategies raised over $520 million in Q4 2025, contributing to Patria becoming the largest manager of REITs in Brazil [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Brazilian credit market reached $1.7 trillion in 2024, with an estimated $800 billion addressable market for asset-backed, non-bank private credit [13] - Approximately 90% of Patria's fee-earning AUM is in vehicles with no or limited redemptions, indicating a stable asset base [15][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Patria aims to achieve a fee-earning AUM target of $70 billion by year-end 2027, with recent acquisitions expected to enhance capabilities in private credit and real estate [8][10] - The company is expanding its investment strategies, including infrastructure development, private equity buyout, and venture capital, to diversify its performance fee earnings stream [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting 2026 and 2027 fundraising targets of $7 billion and $8 billion, respectively, due to strong demand for their investment strategies [10][34] - The macroeconomic environment is seen as favorable, with financial deepening and deregulation in Latin America driving increased investor interest [28][30] Other Important Information - Patria announced a share buyback program of up to 7 million shares to return capital to shareholders [9] - The company is undergoing leadership changes, with a new CFO set to take over in April 2026 [31][32] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Can you discuss the private equity valuation process? - The company uses an independent appraiser annually to value funds, employing a discounted cash flow model and comparing results with industry multiples [56][58] Question: How do unrealized performance fees affect your financials? - Unrealized performance fees do not impact revenues as management fees are charged based on invested capital, not valuations [62][64] Question: What is the outlook for fundraising in 2026? - The company is optimistic about exceeding the $7 billion fundraising target for 2026, given the strong performance in 2025 [70]

Core Insights - Blackstone Inc. (BX) is a global alternative asset management firm with a market cap of $105.2 billion, focusing on private equity, real estate, hedge funds, credit, and multi-asset strategies [1] Performance Overview - Over the past 52 weeks, BX shares have decreased by 20.2%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which returned 15.5% [2] - Year-to-date, BX shares are down 8.3%, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.9% [2] - Compared to the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), BX shares lagged nearly 5% over the past 52 weeks [3] Financial Results - In Q4 2025, Blackstone reported adjusted EPS of $1.75 and adjusted revenue of $3.94 billion, exceeding expectations; however, shares fell by 2.6% following the announcement [5] - Total expenses rose sharply to $2.12 billion, primarily due to compensation and benefits increasing to $1.54 billion, raising concerns about margin pressure [5] Future Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2026, analysts project Blackstone's adjusted EPS to grow by 15.4% year-over-year to $6.43 [6] - Blackstone has a strong earnings surprise history, beating consensus estimates in the last four quarters [6] Analyst Ratings - Among 22 analysts covering Blackstone, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with nine "Strong Buy" ratings, two "Moderate Buys," ten "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [6] - Piper Sandler recently lowered Blackstone's price target to $158 with a "Neutral" rating, while the mean price target of $178.05 suggests a 26% premium to current price levels [8] - The highest price target of $215 indicates a potential upside of 52.2% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Patria Investments Limited has rescheduled its financial results release for Q4 and full year 2025 to February 3, 2026, from the previously announced date of February 10, 2026, and will conduct a conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET [1] Group 1 - Patria is a global alternative asset management firm focused on the mid-market segment, with a strong presence in Latin America and Europe [3] - The firm manages over $51 billion in assets and has 37 years of experience in delivering attractive returns through long-term investments [3] - Patria specializes in sectors such as Agribusiness, Power & Energy, Healthcare, Logistics & Transportation, Food & Beverage, and Digital & Tech Services [4] Group 2 - The company offers various asset classes including Infrastructure, Credit, Real Estate, Private Equity, Solutions (GPMS), and Public Equities [4] - Investment regions for Patria include Latin America, Europe, and the U.S. [4] - Interested parties can sign up for updates and press releases via email through Patria's website [2]

Group 1: Investment Strategies - Many family offices are shifting towards real estate and alternative investments, particularly private equity and hedge funds, to protect their portfolios against inflation [1][3] - U.S. family offices reported holding 40% of their investments in public equities, while 34% are in private investments, including private equity, venture capital, private credit, and real estate [5] Group 2: Concerns and Risks - A significant number of family offices are concerned about inflation and geopolitical risks, with 64% citing interest rates and 61% citing inflation as major risks to their portfolios [2] - Nearly three-quarters (72%) of family offices surveyed reported having no exposure to gold, indicating a reluctance to invest in gold despite its recent price surge [6][7] Group 3: Focus on Technology - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a prominent investment theme for family offices, with 65% including AI in their portfolios or prioritizing it for future investments [4] - There is a strong belief among family offices that AI should be a central part of their investment strategy, although there are concerns about concentration risk [6] Group 4: Cash Management - Family offices are maintaining large amounts of cash and cash equivalents, with some holding cash to prepare for potential downturns and to capitalize on opportunistic investments if asset prices decline [8] - Concerns about inflation are leading some family offices to prefer holding cash, as higher rates could result from inflationary pressures [9]

Core Insights - The traditional structure of 401(k) plans has limited investment options, but recent regulatory changes are enabling plans to offer a broader range of alternatives [2][3] - An executive order from President Trump in August 2025 is set to allow the Department of Labor to modify ERISA guidance, facilitating access to alternative investments such as private equity, real estate, and digital assets within 401(k) plans [3] - The introduction of "TDF 2.0" is anticipated, which will incorporate a small allocation to alternatives alongside traditional assets in target-date funds [6] Investment Options Assessment - While new investment options are emerging, significant changes to fund menus are not expected immediately; rather, incremental adjustments are likely [5] - The decision-making process for participants regarding the new options, particularly "TDF 2.0," may be challenging due to the complexity of assessing the value of alternatives compared to traditional funds [7] - The fee structure associated with alternative investments is a critical factor, as alternatives do not always guarantee better performance than traditional assets [8][9]

Core Insights - Brookfield and Blackstone are major players in the alternative investment sector, each managing over $1 trillion in assets [1] - Both firms have provided substantial returns to shareholders, with Blackstone achieving a 26.5% annualized total return over the past decade and Brookfield at 18.3%, both outperforming the S&P 500's 15.9% return [2] Company Overview - Blackstone operates a straightforward business model focused on alternative asset management, including private equity, credit & insurance, real estate, and hedge funds, generating steady management and performance fees [4] - Brookfield combines alternative asset management with a wealth management platform and a portfolio of operating companies, managing capital for investors while also investing directly in its funds and businesses [5] Growth Projections - Brookfield anticipates annual earnings growth exceeding 25% over the next five years, an increase from its previous five-year growth rate of 22% [6] - Despite its growth potential, Brookfield's current stock price of approximately $47 per share is significantly below its estimated intrinsic value of $68 per share [6] Investment Outlook - While Blackstone is expected to continue enriching its investors, Brookfield's undervalued stock and strong earnings growth outlook position it for greater potential returns in the future [7] - Both companies have been effective in creating wealth, with Blackstone returning most of its rising earnings to investors through dividends and share repurchases, while Brookfield allocates capital to enhance shareholder value [8]

Core Insights - Empower, the second-largest U.S. retirement plan provider, has added Blackstone to its private markets investment partnership program, aligning with the Trump administration's initiative to broaden private market access for defined contribution plans [1][4] Group 1: Empower's Private Markets Program - Empower launched its private markets investment partnership program in May 2025, offering investments in private equity, private credit, and private real estate through collective investment trusts [3] - The initial partnerships included notable firms such as Apollo Global Management, Goldman Sachs, and PIMCO, with investments accessed through managed accounts rather than traditional 401(k) menus [3] Group 2: Blackstone's Role - Blackstone has established a dedicated business unit for working with defined contribution plan sponsors, enhancing its offerings in private equity, private credit, real estate, and infrastructure products for individual investors [2] - Blackstone's involvement is expected to significantly enhance the investment opportunities available to retirement savers, leveraging its 20 years of experience in private markets [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Interest - A report from Cerulli Associates indicates a growing interest among defined contribution plan sponsors in incorporating private market investment options, with 37% of surveyed sponsors expressing high interest in understanding the benefits and drawbacks [4] - Projections suggest that by 2030, 7% of plan sponsors may allocate to private markets through target-date funds or managed accounts [4]