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How This Stock Market ‘Epidemic’ Is Messing With Options Strategies
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-26 11:30
Simply said, a persistently low VIX, a VIX “epidemic” such as we’ve had for much of this year, does not eliminate those option-selling trades. But it does two things that should concern investors.And the strategy I’ve written about here the most, which is using covered calls as the other side of an option collar strategy. And by doing so, knocking down the cost of the put options I purchased to set a “line in the sand” below which I am not exposed to a drop in the price of the underlying security.Selling pu ...
Timing The Bubble Top: Irrational Reaction To 'Deals'
Seeking Alpha· 2025-09-22 13:23
The bubble could continue to grind higher, so there is an opportunity to trend-follow for some more gains. However, the major opportunity is to Short the bubble burst aggressively, possibly with put options. The issue is timing.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have ...
Market Navigator: What's the best risk-reward set up right now?
Youtube· 2025-09-18 19:26
All right, welcome back to Power Lunch. I'm Dominic Chu. Fed chair Jerome Pal was upfront yesterday about the two-sided risks of weaker employment and firmer inflationary threats still remaining, saying that there is no risk-free path ahead, but that does not mean that you can't manage your risk overall in your portfolio.So, when it comes to money, where are the best opportunities in the market. Our next guest has some ideas. Today's market navigator is Brian Stutland, chief investment officer at Equity Arm ...
‘Buyers’ Fatigue’ Threatens US Stock Rally as Fund Flows Weaken
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-09 09:30
Market Sentiment - The recent record run by the US stock market is at risk as investors are retreating from their strong bullish positioning [1] - Evidence of buyers' fatigue is suggested by weak flows into US equity funds compared to earlier in the year, although they have returned to positive territory [2][3] Investor Behavior - Flows from American and European investors into US and non-US domiciled equity funds have been soft, while global flows excluding the US have shown positive but deteriorating trends [2] - Retail flows into US equity funds have recently faltered, with passive flow from retail investors turning negative [4] Valuation and Positioning - Elevated equity valuations, a decline in bullish sentiment, and seasonal weakness are concerns for the market, particularly with September historically being the worst month for S&P 500 returns [4] - A measure of aggregate equity positioning by Deutsche Bank has slipped but remains modestly above neutral, with professional portfolio managers now moderately underweight [5] Market Reactions - US stocks saw a slight increase following a dip from a weaker-than-expected jobs report, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% [6] - The options market indicates concerns about the rally, as the five-day moving average of total net volume in call options fell last week, driven by a drop in single stock contracts [7]
'Big Short' investor Michael Burry reveals fresh bets on Meta, Alibaba, and UnitedHealth
Business Insider· 2025-08-15 01:45
Group 1 - Michael Burry made significant changes to his investment strategy in the second quarter, shifting from bearish put options to bullish call options and adding new holdings [1][4] - Burry's Scion Asset Management acquired call options on several companies including Alibaba, ASML, JD.com, Estee Lauder, Lululemon, Meta, Regeneron, UnitedHealth, and VF [1][4] - The firm also established direct stakes in Bruker, Lululemon, Regeneron, UnitedHealth, and MercadoLibre, while reducing its position in Estee Lauder from 200,000 shares to 150,000 [2] Group 2 - The notable investment in UnitedHealth aligns with Warren Buffett's recent investment in the same health insurer through Berkshire Hathaway [2] - At the end of March, Scion held puts on various companies worth a notional $186 million and a $13 million stake in Estee Lauder, which transformed to holding calls on nine stocks worth $522 million and six direct stakes valued at $56 million by the end of June [4] - Burry's investment disclosures may not fully represent his strategy due to the nature of quarterly portfolio updates, which have a six-week lag and exclude certain types of investments [5]
投资组合对冲(2025 年 3 月)_对冲美国经济增长风险的主要机会
2025-03-23 15:39
Summary of Goldman Sachs Portfolio Hedging Toolkit (Mar-2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US equity market and macroeconomic risks, particularly the potential slowdown in growth and its implications for investors [1][6][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increased Recession Odds**: Economists have raised the 12-month recession probability from 15% to 20%, attributing this to policy changes as a significant risk factor [1][6]. 2. **Downgraded GDP Growth Forecast**: The 2025 US GDP growth forecast has been reduced to 1.7%, which is below consensus expectations, primarily due to anticipated policy-induced economic weakness [1][6]. 3. **Volatility and Hedging Costs**: Although options prices have decreased recently (VIX down 8 points), implied volatility for both indices and single stocks remains high, complicating the search for affordable hedges [1][6][12]. 4. **Recommended Hedges**: - Attractive put buying opportunities identified in stocks such as KEY, CMA, RF, URI, and FITB to hedge against growth risks [12][21]. - ETFs with high sensitivity to US growth include Mid/Small cap, Regional Banks, Financial, and Industrial sectors, which also have relatively low options prices [12][13]. 5. **Put Buying Costs**: The average cost for 3-month puts is approximately 2.6%, which captures upcoming earnings releases and policy announcements [3][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Growth vs. Macro Assets**: Despite underperformance against the S&P 500 year-to-date, growth stocks (VUG) have outperformed their typical relationship with macro assets by 8% over the past two years, indicating potential for mean reversion [7][9]. 2. **Hedging Strategies**: The report emphasizes the importance of tactical hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with market downturns, tech stock drawdowns, and interest rate fluctuations [5][27]. 3. **Performance of Hedging Strategies**: Historical analysis shows that hedging strategies, particularly put spread collars, have provided superior risk-adjusted returns compared to holding equities alone [41][45]. Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions and suggests specific hedging strategies for investors concerned about potential economic slowdowns. The focus on tactical hedges and the identification of attractive put buying opportunities highlight the proactive approach needed in the current volatile environment [1][6][12].