Agios Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS:AGIO) FY Conference January 14, 2026 11:15 AM ET Company ParticipantsBrian Goff - CEOSarah Gheuens - CMO and Head of R&DTsveta Milanova - Chief Commercial OfficerConference Call ParticipantsTessa Romero - Senior Analyst and Biotechnology Equity ResearchTessa RomeroWelcome, everyone, to the 44th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. My name is Tessa Romero, and I'm one of the Senior Biotech Analysts here at JPMorgan. Our next presenting company is Agios, and presenting on beh ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target price for Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO.US) from $25 to $28, indicating a potential upside of approximately 14%, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. The analysis focuses on the market prospects and risk assessment of its core drug, Aqvesme (mitapivat), following FDA approval [1]. Group 1: Drug Approval and Market Potential - Aqvesme is the first and only drug approved for treating adult transfusion-dependent (TD) and non-transfusion-dependent (NTD) alpha or beta thalassemia, based on significant efficacy data from Phase 3 ENERGIZE-T and ENERGIZE trials [1][2]. - In the ENERGIZE trial, 42.3% of patients in the Aqvesme group achieved a hemoglobin increase of ≥1 g/dL, compared to only 1.6% in the placebo group (p<0.0001) [2]. - In the ENERGIZE-T trial, 10% of patients in the Aqvesme group became transfusion-independent within 48 weeks, while only 1% in the placebo group achieved this [2]. Group 2: Sales Forecast and Market Size - Goldman Sachs increased the probability of Aqvesme's market launch for thalassemia from 90% to 100%, setting the annual U.S. price at $425,000, higher than the $335,000 for Pyrukynd, which is used for pyruvate kinase deficiency [2]. - The management has identified approximately 4,000 "easiest" patients to target initially: 2,000 in the TD population and 2,000 with significant symptoms or low hemoglobin in the NTD group. The total addressable population in the U.S. is estimated at around 6,000, with NTD patients making up two-thirds [3]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts Aqvesme sales of $69 million for FY2026, with a gradual increase in prescriptions and revenue expected to align by late 2026 or early 2027, reaching a global peak of approximately $600 million by 2033 [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - Goldman Sachs adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to $36.5 million, $47 million, and $146 million, respectively, while maintaining a trend of narrowing losses, projecting a loss of $6.25 per share in 2027, about $1 less than previous estimates [4]. - The target price of $28 is derived using a 100% risk-adjusted DCF model, with a WACC of 17% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. This valuation includes the successful commercialization of existing assets [4]. - The company is still in a net loss position, and if commercialization speeds are below expectations, financing needs may arise again [4]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Goldman Sachs believes Agios will realize initial value from Aqvesme's U.S. launch in the short term, with medium-term focus on the alignment of prescriptions and revenue, and long-term potential hinging on the success of expanding indications for sickle cell disease [5]. - The target price corresponds to a revenue multiple of about ten times the 2027 revenue forecast, which, while not cheap, is considered reasonable within the narrative of rare disease blockbuster products [5]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor the prescription curve and liver safety signals starting in Q1 of next year, as alignment in these areas will be crucial for maintaining interest from event-driven funds [5].

Core Insights - The FDA approved Agios Pharmaceuticals' drug, mitapivat (brand name: Aqvesme), for expanded indications to treat non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent alpha or beta thalassemia patients, leading to an 18.63% increase in the stock price [1] Group 1: Drug Approval and Market Impact - Aqvesme is the first oral therapy approved for thalassemia patients, a hereditary blood disorder affecting hemoglobin and healthy red blood cell production [1] - The drug is expected to launch next month after implementing a necessary safety plan, which includes a black box warning regarding hepatocellular injury and liver function monitoring for the first 24 weeks of treatment [1] - Analysts noted that the drug's labeling and requirements met expectations, with the annual treatment cost per patient estimated at $425,000 [1] Group 2: Revenue Potential and Patient Demographics - The approval unlocks approximately $320 million in peak revenue opportunities based on the existing mitapivat product line [2] - The target market includes around 6,000 adult thalassemia patients in the U.S., with about 4,000 expected to have access to treatment at launch [2] - The latest approval is based on a late-stage study showing statistically significant improvements in hemoglobin response compared to the placebo group [2]

Summary of Agios Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Agios Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS:AGIO) - **Product**: Axazeni (mitapivat) for the treatment of anemia in adults with alpha or beta thalassemia Key Industry Insights - **FDA Approval**: Axazeni is the first and only medicine approved for both non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent alpha or beta thalassemia, regardless of transfusion burden [4][5] - **Market Opportunity**: Approximately 6,000 diagnosed adult thalassemia patients in the U.S., with an initial addressable population of about 4,000 patients [17][75] - **Pricing**: Axazeni is priced at approximately $425,000 per patient per year on a WAC basis, reflecting its differentiated benefits [22] Core Points and Arguments - **Clinical Significance**: Axazeni is the first disease-modifying treatment for non-transfusion-dependent thalassemia and has shown quality-of-life improvements in patients [5][11] - **Trial Results**: - In the ENERGIZE trial, 42.3% of patients achieved a hemoglobin response, with an average increase of 1.56 grams per deciliter [10] - In the ENERGIZE-T trial, 30.4% of transfusion-dependent patients met the primary endpoint of transfusion reduction response [11] - **Adverse Reactions**: Common adverse reactions included headache and insomnia, with a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) in place for hepatocellular injury [12][15] Launch Strategy - **Commercial Model**: A capital-efficient global commercial model focusing on the U.S. market, which is the largest opportunity [16] - **Physician Engagement**: 86% of surveyed physicians plan to prescribe Axazeni within six months of availability, with strong familiarity with REMS programs [16] - **Initial Launch Dynamics**: Expectation of a 10-12 week period from prescription to treatment initiation due to REMS certification and prior authorization processes [63] Additional Considerations - **Long-term Growth**: The plan is to expand from the initial 4,000 addressable patients to the full 6,000 patient population over time, focusing on both transfusion-dependent and non-transfusion-dependent patients [75] - **International Launch**: Approval in KSA with expectations for slow initial demand generation in Gulf countries and Europe due to local regulatory processes [66][67] - **Future Developments**: Engagement with the FDA regarding the phase three RISE UP data for sickle cell disease and potential regulatory paths [23] Conclusion - The approval of Axazeni represents a significant advancement in thalassemia treatment, with a robust commercial strategy and strong clinical data supporting its launch. The company aims to address critical care gaps and establish Axazeni as the standard of care for thalassemia patients [85]

Core Insights - Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is awaiting a decision from the FDA regarding its supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for Pyrukynd (mitapivat) to treat thalassemia, which has missed the expected deadline of December 7, 2025 [1][2][7] - The sNDA is under active review, and no additional efficacy or safety data have been requested by the FDA [2][8] - Pyrukynd is already approved in the U.S. and Europe for treating hemolytic anemia in adults with pyruvate kinase deficiency [3][7] Company Performance - Year-to-date, Agios shares have declined by 17%, contrasting with a 19.3% increase in the industry [4] - The FDA extended the review timeline for the sNDA by three months in September 2025 due to a request for a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) related to potential liver injury risks [5] Regulatory Developments - The European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) has issued a positive opinion for Pyrukynd's label expansion in thalassemia, with a final decision from the European Commission expected in early 2026 [8] - Besides thalassemia, Pyrukynd is also being studied for sickle cell disease (SCD), where recent phase III trial results were mixed, meeting one primary endpoint but failing another [9]

Core Viewpoint - Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. experienced a significant stock decline following the release of Phase 3 trial results for mitapivat in treating sickle cell disease, despite meeting its primary endpoint of hemoglobin response [1][10]. Trial Results - The RISE UP Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant improvement in hemoglobin response with 40.6% of patients in the mitapivat arm achieving this response compared to 2.9% in the placebo arm [2][3]. - Mitapivat also demonstrated a reduction in the annualized rate of sickle cell pain crises (SCPCs), with rates of 2.62 in the mitapivat arm versus 3.05 in the placebo arm, although this did not achieve statistical significance [3][4]. - Statistically significant improvements were observed in two key secondary endpoints: average change in hemoglobin concentration and levels of indirect bilirubin from baseline [4][6]. Safety and Efficacy - The safety profile of mitapivat in this trial was consistent with previous studies, with an average change in hemoglobin concentration of 7.69 g/L in the mitapivat arm compared to 0.26 g/L in the placebo arm, indicating a statistically significant improvement [6]. - The average change in indirect bilirubin was -16.03 µmol/L in the mitapivat arm versus 0.88 µmol/L in the placebo arm, also showing a statistically significant improvement [7]. Future Plans - Agios plans to submit a marketing application for mitapivat in the U.S. for sickle cell disease after a pre-supplemental New Drug Application meeting with the FDA in early 2026 [8]. - The company is also focused on other commercial and pipeline milestones, including the potential U.S. approval of Pyrukynd (mitapivat) for thalassemia, expected in December 2025 [8][9]. Stock Performance - Following the trial results, Agios Pharmaceuticals' stock fell by 49.00%, trading at $23.20, near its 52-week low of $23.41 [10].

Core Insights - Agios Pharmaceuticals reported a GAAP EPS of -$1.78 for Q3 2025, surpassing estimates by $0.12 [1] - The company achieved revenue of $12.88 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 43.8% [1] Company Overview - Agios Pharmaceuticals is focused on drug development, leveraging scientific expertise in cell biology and therapeutic research [1] - The company aims to innovate through unique mechanisms of action and first-in-class therapies, targeting the biotechnology sector [1] Financial Performance - The reported EPS of -$1.78 indicates a loss, but it is an improvement over analyst expectations [1] - Revenue growth of 43.8% year-over-year highlights the company's strong performance in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shares of Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) fell 11% after the FDA extended the review timeline for the supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for Pyrukynd in thalassemia by three months, with a new decision date set for December 7, 2025 [1][7]. Company Developments - The sNDA for Pyrukynd is based on data from two phase III studies, ENERGIZE and ENERGIZE-T, aiming for approval in treating non-transfusion-dependent and transfusion-dependent thalassemia in adults [2]. - Agios submitted a proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) to address liver injury risks, which led to the three-month extension of the review timeline [3]. - The FDA had previously expected a decision on September 7, 2025, and the delay may impact the commercial launch timeline, which was initially anticipated before the end of 2025 [8]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Agios shares have increased by 10%, outperforming the industry average rise of 4.1% [4]. - Pyrukynd generated sales of $21.2 million in the first half of 2025, marking a 26% year-over-year increase [9]. Ongoing Research - Agios is also conducting late-stage studies, ACTIVATE-Kids and ACTIVATE-KidsT, to evaluate Pyrukynd for treating PK deficiency in pediatric patients [10].