制冷剂含氟聚合物近况更新 20260121 摘要 R32 价格年初异常波动，从 2024 年不足 2 万元涨至约 6 万元，涨幅显 著，主要受下游空调需求增长驱动，尤其是在以旧换新政策和家电企业 排产计划增加的背景下，预计未来价格仍有上涨空间。 高级制冷剂如 R125、R404、R507 等自 2023 年配额政策执行以来价 格上涨，但受光伏行业需求回调影响有所回落。企业通过削减配额主动 提价，叠加海外市场需求增加，推动小品种制冷剂价格上涨，预计旺季 需求带动下仍有涨价空间。 国内 32 空调与 410A 空调生产比例已达 8:2，导致 410A 产业链需求缩 减，售价逐渐低于 32。美国和欧洲法规对高级导流 P 产品的约束和淘汰 加速了这一转变。 134A 库存处于历史低位，中化与车企签订长期订单价格已超 6.2 万元/ 吨，散水市场价格也在上涨，预计年底可能达到 7 万元/吨甚至更高，主 要受益于售后市场需求。 125 制冷剂市场前景乐观，企业主动削减配额并成功提价至 5.1 万元/吨， 预计未来价格可能追赶 32 制冷剂水平，达到 6 万元/吨，无需过多担忧 内贸转向的影响。 Q&A 2026 年制冷剂 ...

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that the PMI data for May shows improvement, with the impact of tariffs temporarily alleviated and resilience in the consumer services sector [3][8] - The high-tech manufacturing macro report reveals that the National Securities weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index remains flat, indicating mixed performance across various sectors [3][9] - The macroeconomic report highlights weak high-frequency growth indicators, with a rebound in export chains and food prices [10][11] Industry and Company - The investment strategy for the petrochemical industry in June 2025 focuses on potassium fertilizers, allulose, refrigerants, pesticides, and biodiesel as key investment directions [3][26] - The chemical industry report notes a significant increase in air conditioning production in Q2, with prices of third-generation refrigerants continuing to rise [3] - The pharmaceutical industry report from the ASCO annual meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic dual antibodies and ADCs as innovative molecules [3] - The electric power industry report highlights the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization and steady progress in charging pile construction [3] - The real estate industry report indicates a worsening of losses in the sector, with no significant improvement in fundamentals [3] - The communication industry strategy for June 2025 points to sustained demand for high-speed optical modules and the development of commercial aerospace [3] Fixed Income and REITs - The fixed income strategy for June 2025 anticipates a new round of market activity driven by technological advancements, with a focus on convertible bonds [10][17] - The public REITs report indicates that operational REITs are performing better than property REITs, with a notable increase in quality warehouse assets entering the market [12][14] - The REITs index shows a year-to-date increase of 10.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [14][15] ESG Focus - The ESG report highlights significant developments in green finance and carbon market expansion in China, with new policies aimed at promoting sustainable development [18][20] - The ESG product monthly report indicates a notable increase in the issuance of ESG bonds, with fluctuations in the number of public ESG funds [22][23]