| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603822 | 嘉澳环保 | 83.66 | 2.54% | 6.53万 | 5.29 Z | | 688196 | 卓越新能 | 52.50 | 1.70% | 1.42万 | 7368.79万 | | 000159 | 国际实业 | 5.79 | 1.58% | 26.30万 | 1.52亿 | | 300664 | 鹏鹞环保 | 5.69 | 1.25% | 19.03万 | 1.08亿 | | 000803 | 山高坏能 | 6.95 | -0.29% | 13.92万 | 9611.90万 | | 000930 | 中粮科技 | 5.88 | -0.51% | 20.84万 | 1.23亿 | | 603334 | 丰倍生物 | 43.44 | -0.73% | 2.73万 | 1.18亿 | | 300072 | 海新能科 | 4.57 | -3.59% | 109.34万 | 4.96亿 | 证券之星消息，11月24日生物柴油板块较 ...

美国豆农的"政策红包"说黄就黄？ 2026年要落地的进口生物燃料补贴削减计划，突然被白宫按下暂停键，推迟到2027年甚至2028年。 这波操作不仅让芝加哥豆油期货跌了2%，更让美国农场主直呼"被自己政府背刺"。 周叔今天就跟大伙掰扯掰扯，这背后到底是利益博弈还是政治算计？对咱们国内油脂市场又有啥影响？ 政策大反转：豆农欢喜变空喜 说句实在话，美国豆农这两年过得不算顺。 好不容易等来了EPA的"政策大礼包"，结果还没捂热就飞了。 原来美国有个可再生燃料标准（RFS），要求汽柴油里必须掺生物燃料，达标企业能拿"绿色积分"RIN。 EPA原本计划2026年1月起，进口生物燃料的RIN额度砍半，这意味着进口废食用油等原料没了补贴优势，炼油厂只能多买美国本土豆油、菜油当原料。 对豆农来说，这就是能源转型的红利，大豆不仅能卖豆粕，豆油还能蹭上生物柴油的风口。 可白宫突然变卦，核心原因就三个字：怕涨价。 市场连锁反应：全球油脂掀波澜 咱们先看美国国内，这推迟可不是晚一两年那么简单，而是实实在在的利益损失。 美国生物柴油行业现在高度依赖进口原料，2024年光从中国就买了127万吨废食用油。 要是砍了进口补贴，炼油厂要么买更贵 ...

开源证券近日发布基础化工行业点评报告：据隆众资讯数据，截至11月19日，中国一代、二代生物柴油 FOB价格分别为1,165、1,900美元/吨，分别较2025年年初+11%、+24%。2025年以来，受终端需求增长 带动，生物柴油价格稳步增长。 RED III法案取消UCO双倍降碳政策，生柴需求有望增加 2026年欧盟将逐步执行RED III法案，其较RED II提高了2030年降碳目标，将可再生能源消费占比目标 从32%提高到至少42.5%；交通领域可再生能源占比目标从14%提高至29%；取消对UCO为原料生产生 物柴油双倍降碳的政策。换言之，2026年开始欧盟提高碳排放目标，对生物柴油，尤其是二代生物柴油 需求增加。同时取消UCO双倍降碳政策，生物柴油以及UCO的需求量将接近翻倍的增长。据USDA数据 及我们测算，2025年预计欧盟以UCO为原料生产的生物柴油需求量为374万吨，RED III法案落地后需求 量或将至少再增加400万吨。 受益标的：卓越新能、海新能科、嘉澳环保、山高环能等。 风险提示：政策推进不及预期、原材料价格大幅上涨、技术进步不及预期等。（开源证券 金益腾,宋梓 荣,李思佳） 以下为研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights the increasing demand for biodiesel in China and globally, driven by terminal demand growth and regulatory changes, particularly the implementation of the RED III directive in the EU starting in 2026 [1][4]. Domestic Market Developments - The first domestic B5 biodiesel injection for internal trade was completed on November 20, marking a significant step in the use of biodiesel in domestic shipping [2][3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's recent policy supports the blending of domestic biodiesel with marine fuel oil, which is expected to enhance the domestic biodiesel market [2]. International Market Trends - The "IMO net-zero framework" is anticipated to increase the demand for biodiesel, with projections indicating that Singapore's marine fuel injection could require millions of tons of biodiesel by 2030 [3]. - China's bonded marine fuel injection is expected to reach 1,988 million tons in 2024, with a potential increase of nearly 400 million tons in biodiesel demand if 20% biodiesel is blended [3]. Regulatory Changes in the EU - The RED III directive will raise the renewable energy consumption target in the EU from 32% to at least 42.5% by 2030, significantly increasing the demand for biodiesel, especially second-generation biodiesel [4]. - The removal of the double carbon reduction policy for used cooking oil (UCO) is expected to nearly double the demand for biodiesel and UCO in the EU [4]. Beneficiary Companies - Companies likely to benefit from these trends include Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH), Haineng Technology (300072.SZ), Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822.SZ), and Shanggou Environmental Energy (000803.SZ) [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with EU and China prices reaching $2,500 and $2,960 per ton respectively, marking increases of 39% and 60% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The profit margin for SAF in China is calculated to exceed 4,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong profitability in the sector [1] - The tightening supply of SAF is driven by the upcoming EU and UK verification of a 2% SAF blending ratio, alongside maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities like NESTE [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the RED III legislation in the EU starting in 2026 will raise carbon reduction targets and eliminate the double carbon credit policy for biodiesel produced from used cooking oil (UCO), leading to increased demand for biodiesel and UCO [3] - The projected demand for biodiesel produced from UCO in the EU is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 3.74 million tons in 2025 to an additional 4 million tons in 2026 [3] - The maritime sector is also expected to see increased demand for biodiesel, with new regulations requiring a shift towards electric or 100% biofuel-powered vessels by 2030 [3]

数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生物柴油供需持续偏紧,坚定看好产 业景气上行趋势—行业点评报告》 -2025.11.20 《"反内卷"为盾，需求为矛，化工有 望迎来新一轮景气周期—行业投资策 略》-2025.11.18 《有机硅、聚酯、己内酰胺反内卷持 续推进，硫磷、电新材料产业链价格 延续上涨—行业周报》-2025.11.16 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 国内首单内贸 B5 生柴加注，生物船燃需求前景可期 ——行业点评报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 宋梓荣（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | songzirong@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070002 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | 生物船燃加注增加及欧盟 RED ...

NESTE预计在2025年4季度对鹿特丹工厂、12月对新加坡工厂均进行为期6周的检修。虽然近期我国SAF 出口白名单企业新增了三家，但从能出口到实现销售仍需要一段时间。截至10月，英国SAF添加比例为 1.6%，较2%的添加目标仍有差距。因此随着年底欧盟、英国对其2%的SAF添加比例进行核查, SAF供需 持续偏紧。新加坡民航局宣布自2026年4月起对所有从新加坡出发的航班乘客与货运征收"可持续航空燃 料(SAF)附加费"，并设立2026年SAF添加1%、2030年添加3%-5%的目标。 2026年，欧盟将逐步执行RED III法案，多数欧盟生产商可能会选择优先考虑生产HVO而不是SAF。中 国SAF成本优势显著，竞争力充足。进入2027年CORSIA要求成员国家强制推出SAF掺混比例，2050年 实现航空业净零排放。目前全球航空煤油需求3亿吨，假设2027年全球平均添加1%的SAF，再考虑欧 盟、英国添加2%的SAF，2027年SAF全球需求将达到300-400万吨。IATA预计2050年SAF全球需求达到4 亿吨。 生物柴油：欧盟可再生能源法案III执行及船燃加注增加，需求有望持续增加 智通财经APP获悉 ...

目前，棕榈油价格在经历了七八月份的一波上涨后，从 8 月 20 日开始进入震 荡下跌阶段，主要原因包括马来西亚和印尼市场产量增加、库存上升以及印度 市场部分被美豆油和阿根廷豆油抢占。中国市场方面，棕榈油与豆油之间的价 差也被大幅挤压，导致买兴不佳。在今年上半年达到绝对高点后，棕榈油价格 有所回调，目前主力合约已跌破 8,600 元，但在此位置有一定支撑。 从季节性 产量来看，马来西亚和印尼通常在 4 月至 10 月为增产季，而 11 月开始进入减 产季，因此未来几个月产量可能会下降。此外，印尼政府计划在 2026 年下半 年正式实施 B50 生物柴油政策，这将增加对棕榈油的需求。目前国际市场上 CPO 与豆油价差已达 45~50 美元，使得 CPO 具有一定性价比，不排除印度会 积极补库。 天气方面，预计 2026 年可能出现拉尼娜现象，这将导致干旱并影 响产量。中国华南地区 24 度现货棕榈油与豆油现货几乎同价，也具有一定性 棕榈油周期展望 20251114 摘要 印尼计划 2026 年下半年实施 B50 生物柴油政策，预计将显著增加棕榈 油需求，但短期内新增产能有限，可能导致供应缺口，需关注政策实施 进度 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the stable profitability and cash flow improvement in the municipal environmental sector, driven by debt reduction and water price adjustments, leading to opportunities in high-dividend environmental assets. Recommended companies include Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, Green Power, Junxin Co., Yongxing Co., Hongcheng Environment, Conch Venture, Everbright Environment, and Yuehai Investment [4][27]. - The transportation sector's carbon reduction initiatives are fully underway, with the biodiesel industry expected to benefit significantly from policies such as the EU RED3, which will increase demand for biodiesel in road transport, shipping, and aviation [4][33]. - AI empowerment is driving secondary growth in the municipal environmental sector, with significant potential in waste management and autonomous sanitation. The integration of AI in waste-to-energy projects can enhance profitability and cash flow, with examples showing net profit increases of 83% to 146% [4][27]. Group 2 - The report details the stable revenue and income from municipal water and solid waste services, which are essential for urban operations. The typical operating model involves exclusive rights for 25-30 years, ensuring long-term revenue stability [10][11]. - Water price adjustments are accelerating, with various regions implementing increases that can enhance the profitability of water companies. For instance, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have proposed significant price hikes, with increases ranging from 13% to 31% [19][21]. - The report provides a summary of high-dividend companies in the environmental sector, showcasing their market capitalization, PE ratios, net profits, and dividend rates, indicating a trend towards higher shareholder returns [9][24]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the expected increase in free cash flow for municipal environmental companies due to a significant decline in capital expenditures (Capex), which is projected to enhance dividend rates over time [25][27]. - Specific companies are recommended based on their growth potential and dividend stability, including Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, Junxin Co., Yongxing Co., and Hongcheng Environment, each with unique strengths in their respective markets [27][28]. - The biodiesel industry is set to expand significantly due to EU policies that broaden the scope of renewable energy requirements across various transport sectors, indicating a robust growth trajectory for companies involved in biodiesel production [33][34].

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector experienced a decline of 4.59% on November 14, with Hai Xin Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - International Industrial (000159) closed at 6.85, up 2.24% with a trading volume of 237,400 shares and a transaction value of 163 million [1] - Zhongliang Technology (000930) closed at 6.12, down 0.65% with a trading volume of 153,900 shares and a transaction value of 94.66 million [1] - Pengpeng Environmental (300664) closed at 6.12, down 1.92% with a trading volume of 331,800 shares and a transaction value of 205 million [1] - Excellent New Energy (688196) closed at 61.71, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 25,600 shares and a transaction value of 158 million [1] - Fengbei Biological (603334) closed at 48.30, down 4.03% with a trading volume of 79,100 shares and a transaction value of 38.8 million [1] - Jiaao Environmental (603822) closed at 109.69, down 4.42% with a trading volume of 26,700 shares and a transaction value of 296 million [1] - Shangaohuan Energy (000803) closed at 7.94, down 6.59% with a trading volume of 865,200 shares and a transaction value of 687 million [1] - Hai Xin Energy (300072) closed at 5.56, down 10.03% with a trading volume of 2,447,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.407 billion [1] Capital Flow - The biodiesel sector saw a net outflow of 390 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 288 million [1] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with International Industrial seeing a net inflow of 3.08 million from main funds, while Hai Xin Energy experienced a net outflow of 150 million [2]