The "Year of the Hand": Why Dexterity Is the Next Frontier for AIAs artificial intelligence (AI) moves from digital interfaces into the physical world, a significant shift is occurring in how machines interact with the environment.The next two years will be defined as "the years of the hand,†Dr. Illah Nourbakhsh, professor of robotics at Carnegie Mellon University and strategic advisor to the ROBO Global indexes at VettaFi, [said during a recent webcast.] Furthermore, this evolution in finger dexterity and ...

Core Insights - The introduction of the National Commission on Robotics Act signifies a bipartisan effort to enhance U.S. competitiveness in robotics, emphasizing the importance of autonomous systems for national security and industrial reshoring [1] - The proposed commission is expected to provide actionable policy recommendations within two years, coinciding with the convergence of AI and robotics in the market narrative [1] Robotics and AI Exposure via ETFs - The ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) offers broad exposure to the hardware sector, featuring top holdings such as Teradyne Inc. and Rockwell Automation, which may benefit from federal initiatives aimed at strengthening the domestic industrial base [1] - The ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) focuses on the AI aspect, including semiconductor companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Nvidia, which are crucial for modern robotics [1] - Both ETFs represent strategic investment options for advisors looking to capitalize on emerging technologies in robotics and AI [1]

Core Insights - The sentiment around robotics investments has shifted significantly, with 85% of financial advisors paying more attention to this sector in 2026 compared to previous years [1] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a crucial factor in bridging the gap between cost and skill in the physical economy, which constitutes 80% of global GDP [1] - The integration of AI in robotics is unlocking a near-term opportunity valued at $25 trillion, with long-term potential reaching $100 trillion as robots evolve to build other robots [1] Robotics and AI Market Dynamics - The transition from research and development to commercial deployment of robotics is underway, with advancements in humanoids and autonomous vehicles [1] - Humanoid robots, such as Figure, are being deployed in industrial settings, with production expected to scale to 100,000 units per year by 2028 [1] - AI-driven navigation for autonomous vehicles is becoming a commercial reality, as demonstrated by Waymo's expansion in major U.S. cities [1] Investment Opportunities - The ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) is designed to target the robotics and AI investment opportunity, focusing on enablers and application providers [1] - THNQ provides diversified exposure across subsectors, including semiconductors and cloud providers essential for real-world AI applications [1] - The ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) offers global exposure to the rapidly growing robotics and automation industry [1]

Core Insights - The transition of physical AI into a tech-driven industrial up-cycle is expected to drive U.S. robot shipments to a historical high of 40,000 units by 2026 due to persistent labor shortages [1][8] - Global enthusiasm for robotics, particularly in the U.S., Japan, and China, is growing, with physical AI being a significant focus [2][3] U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. is projected to face a manufacturing worker shortfall of 1.5 to 3.9 million, which is a fundamental driver for increased robotics and automation demand [7] - A historical correlation of 94% between job openings and robot installations suggests that the U.S. will see about 30% year-over-year growth in robot shipments in 2026 [7][8] Global Robotics Trends - China has the highest robot density globally, with over one million operational units, and has shown better-than-expected performance in 2025, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors [9] - Foreign companies like FANUC and Yaskawa reported good growth rates in China, despite concerns over tariffs [9] Technological Developments - The focus on robot hands and tactile sensing is expected to grow, enhancing robots' capabilities to work alongside humans [6] - Emerging technologies such as nano-robots and new robot types for specific applications, like rare earth mining, are areas of potential growth [12][13] Market Outlook - The current industrial cycle is characterized as a tech-driven up-cycle, with expectations for automotive capital expenditures to increase towards the end of the year [15][17] - The market is anticipated to experience a prolonged up-cycle, albeit at a slower pace compared to the post-COVID surge in 2021 and 2022 [17]

Group 1: ETF Industry Overview - The ETF industry experienced record net inflows of $1.49 trillion in 2025, setting a high benchmark for 2026 [1] - Specific market segments are being monitored for potential investment opportunities in 2026 [1] Group 2: Small-Cap ETFs - The S&P 600 Index rose only 6% in 2025, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by over 1,000 basis points, although small-caps showed improvement in Q4 [2] - Small-cap ETFs faced net redemptions in 2025, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) experiencing outflows of $4.6 billion and $2.7 billion respectively [3] - There is interest in whether the late December demand for small-cap ETFs will continue into 2026 [3] Group 3: AI and Thematic ETFs - AI-focused ETFs saw significant inflows, with the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) attracting $7.6 billion in 2025, and the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution (IVES) nearing $1 billion in assets shortly after its June launch [4] - The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) outperformed AI-themed funds with a 55% increase in 2025, driven by rising demand for nuclear energy as AI infrastructure expands [5] - The ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) gained 22% in 2025, with expectations for continued interest in robotics [5] Group 4: High Yield ETFs - Fixed income ETFs saw substantial net inflows of $439 billion in 2025, with U.S.-focused high yield ETFs performing strongly, such as the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) and iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), which rose 8.8% and 8.6% respectively [6] - High yield credit spreads ended 2025 at historically tight levels, yet 38% of advisors still view high yield corporate bonds as attractive [7] - The USHY ETF gathered $6.1 billion in 2025, although demand slowed in the latter half of the year, while HYG attracted $1.5 billion of its total $4.8 billion in December alone [7]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) narrative is shifting towards national security, with the Trump administration's "Genesis Mission" aiming to double productivity in American science and engineering within a decade, positioning AI as a national security imperative akin to the Manhattan Project [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives and Investments - The U.S. government is driving AI growth through significant investments, exemplified by Amazon Web Services (AWS) committing up to $50 billion to enhance data center infrastructure for government clients, indicating a reliance on federal defense and intelligence budgets for future AI advancements [2] - The administration is emphasizing robotics as a critical component of its strategy to compete with China's manufacturing capabilities, highlighting the need for "physical AI" to enable advanced industrial automation and reshoring of production [3] Group 2: Economic Vulnerabilities and Strategic Needs - U.S. manufacturing costs are reported to be ten times higher than those in China, creating a strategic vulnerability that necessitates a focused approach to advanced manufacturing and robotics [4] - A call for a "National Strategy for Robotics" has been made to address the manufacturing gap and ensure U.S. leadership in this sector [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The policy shift towards prioritizing both software and industrial automation presents new investment opportunities beyond traditional market-cap weighted indices, suggesting a broader opportunity set for financial advisors and investors [6] - The ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) and the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) utilize a modified equal-weighting methodology, which diversifies exposure away from mega-cap companies and focuses on mid-cap and specialized players crucial to this sector rotation [7]

Core Insights - Wall Street's outlook for 2026 is increasingly optimistic, with major firms like JPMorgan, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank believing that productivity gains driven by AI and automation will propel the market higher [1][2] - The anticipated earnings growth necessary to support elevated S&P 500 targets hinges on significant efficiency improvements across various industries [1][2] Future-Of-Work ETFs - Future-of-work ETFs are designed to track the real-world adoption of AI, automation, and digital infrastructure, which are expected to contribute to earnings upgrades by 2026 [3][9] - iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) captures a wide range of technologies enhancing corporate efficiency, allowing investors to benefit from the productivity wave without focusing solely on AI or robotics [3] - ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) focuses on industrial robotics and automation, emphasizing the essential but less glamorous technologies that support productivity [4] - State Street SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF (KOMP) provides exposure to companies leading digital transformation, making it a strong proxy for anticipated productivity gains [5] - State Street SPDR S&P Kensho Intelligent Structures ETF (SIMS) targets companies involved in smart infrastructure and advanced systems, directly linking to the implementation of efficiency gains [6][7] Market Dynamics - The bullish forecasts for 2026 are contingent on the actual economic impact of AI, automation, and robotics, rather than mere belief in these technologies [8] - Future-of-work ETFs offer investors a means to engage with the economic realities of AI, distinguishing between hype and tangible productivity transformation [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emerging trend of photonics as a critical component in the infrastructure supporting AI, robotics, and industrial automation, which is gaining attention from investors [1][5] - Photonics technology offers significant efficiency gains by using light to transmit data, reducing energy consumption and heat generation compared to traditional copper wiring [3][4] Industry Overview - Traditional data centers face limitations due to energy waste and heat generation from copper wiring, which is a significant challenge for power-intensive applications like AI [2] - The shift to photonics, utilizing optical interconnects and fiber optics, allows data to be transmitted at the speed of light with minimal energy loss, enhancing performance per watt [3] Investment Opportunities - The article presents a "picks and shovels" investment strategy, focusing on hardware companies essential for AI and automation, such as Lumentum, Jenoptik, and Coherent, which have reported strong earnings [4] - ETFs like ROBO and THNQ provide diversified exposure to companies involved in the photonics infrastructure, which is crucial for the future of AI and robotics [5][7]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 reached a new milestone, closing above 6,400 for the first time on August 13, 2025, driven primarily by large-cap technology stocks [1] - Investors continue to favor large-cap U.S. tech stocks, indicating a sustained trend in this direction [1] Performance of Top Stocks - The 20 largest companies on the S&P 500 have outperformed the index, rising an average of 40.6% since the market bottom, compared to the index's overall gain of 27.9% [2] - The top-performing stocks include NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, JPMorgan, Netflix, Oracle, and Palantir, all of which are supported by AI-backed fundamentals [3] Industrial Sector Insights - The industrial sector is also benefiting from AI spending, with companies capitalizing on the technology's infrastructure demands [4] - A long-term opportunity is anticipated as more companies adopt AI to enhance margins and productivity [4] AI-focused ETFs - Several AI-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are highlighted for potential inclusion in investment portfolios [5] - The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) provides exposure to companies benefiting from AI development and implementation, charging 68 bps in fees [6] - The iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT) focuses on equity securities involved in groundbreaking technologies, with a fee of 46 bps [7] - The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) invests in companies benefiting from robotics and AI adoption, charging 68 bps in fees [8] - The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) seeks long-term growth by investing in autonomous technology and robotics companies, with a fee of 75 bps [9] - The ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF (ROBO) measures performance of companies deriving revenue from robotics and automation, charging 95 bps in fees [11]