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计算机行业双周报(2025、7、4-2025、7、17):Grok4发布验证ScalingLaw依然有效,英伟达将重启H20对华供货-20250718
Dongguan Securities· 2025-07-18 14:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The computer industry index has increased by 4.98% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.31 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 first-level industries [10][2]. - The SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) is 53.97 times, positioned at the 87.27% percentile over the past five years and 74.59% over the past ten years [20][2]. - The release of Grok 4 by xAI is expected to enhance AI application development, with significant implications for AI computing power and investment opportunities [27][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The SW computer sector has shown a cumulative increase of 11.68% this year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.15 percentage points [10][2]. - The top-performing stocks in the computer sector over the past two weeks include Information Development, Puling Software, and Borui Data, with increases of 46.00%, 42.52%, and 41.85% respectively [16][2]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of July 17, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM stands at 53.97 times, indicating a high valuation relative to historical performance [20][2]. 3. Industry News - Key developments include the launch of Grok 4, which is positioned as a leading AI model, and NVIDIA's resumption of H20 chip supplies to China [21][27]. - Google plans to invest $25 billion in AI infrastructure over the next two years, highlighting the growing demand for AI capabilities [21][27]. 4. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include Star Ring Technology's plan to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance competitiveness and brand image [24][2]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the potential of Grok 4 to drive advancements in AI applications, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in AI computing power and related sectors [27][2]. 6. Recommended Stocks - Suggested stocks for attention include: - GuoDianYunTong (002152.SZ) for its stable growth in fintech and deepening layout in data elements and computing power [29]. - Shenzhou Digital (000034.SZ) as a core partner in the "Kunpeng + Ascend" industrial chain, expected to benefit from rising domestic computing power demand [29].