Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is characterized by a rigid supply constraint due to the aging structure of rubber trees, which is a fundamental issue rather than a short-term weather or policy disturbance [1][4] Supply Side - The global rubber supply is entering a seasonal turning point, with production activities in Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia) normal but limited in growth potential [1] - The domestic production in Yunnan will begin to halt in early December, which, although representing less than 6% of global output, will reduce market pressure both emotionally and in localized supply [1] - The aging tree issue in key production areas like southern Thailand may continue to restrict future potential output [1] Demand Side - The tire industry, particularly in the all-steel tire segment, is showing resilience, with China's rubber tire output from January to July 2025 increasing by 0.7% year-on-year [2] - Strong export markets, especially for truck tires to African countries, have reached historical highs, offsetting uncertainties in other regions [2] - The domestic heavy truck market is recovering, driven by logistics demand and replacement policies, boosting the demand for all-steel tires [2] - However, there are concerns regarding high finished inventory levels for semi-steel tires and uncertainties in the global macroeconomic outlook that may limit significant demand improvement [2] Market Structure - Overall market inventory is at a historically neutral low level, providing a price safety net and limiting downward pressure [3] - There are structural opportunities in contract price spreads, particularly between domestic all-rubber and NR (20 rubber), which typically narrow seasonally from January to March [3] Future Outlook - The long-term capacity cycle is a key theme, with the aging of rubber trees leading to a lack of supply elasticity, which is crucial for supporting mid-to-long-term price levels [3] - Demand verification is essential, with close attention needed on the sustainability of tire export orders and the strength of the domestic heavy truck market recovery [3] - Global monetary policy and industrial policies in major consuming countries could alter trade flows and impact prices [3] Overall Market Condition - The rubber market is currently in a state of "weak supply-demand balance with neutral low inventory" [4] - In the short term, there is a lack of unilateral drivers to break the current oscillation pattern, and prices are likely to remain within the current range [4] - The rigid supply constraints and resilient demand together form a bottom support for prices, suggesting that focusing on the convergence opportunities between RU and NR may be more feasible than chasing unilateral trends [4]