人民财讯11月18日电，11月18日，在东方财富证券2026年度策略会上，东方财富证券研究所副所长、首 席策略官陈果发表2026年度策略报告，他提出2026年中国资产重估逻辑将继续演绎，内外资对权益市场 的增配有望共振，国内居民权益类资产配置仍有广阔提升空间，A股新高可期。盈利端，AI产业链景气 度扩散、产能周期筑底及PPI同比回暖有望带动盈利周期延续转暖，"新动能"占比将进一步提升；同时 随着本轮广义去库持续、下半年地产库销比回归历史均值，传统经济链条预期也将迎来逐步改善。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：证券时报 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the A-share market (A 股), focusing on their recent performance and outlook. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Weakness Factors** The recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the overseas AI bubble, performance divergence in global growth stocks, tightening global liquidity, and seasonal weakness in southbound capital. These factors collectively exert pressure on the market [1][2][4]. 2. **Sentiment Indicators** Current sentiment indicators suggest that the market has entered a pessimistic zone, with indicators around 40, but have not reached panic levels below 30. This indicates a potential for further adjustments before a recovery [5]. 3. **Future Liquidity Expectations** It is anticipated that liquidity in the U.S. may improve in December, with the potential release of approximately $100 billion from the TGA account and a halt in balance sheet reduction, which could alleviate pressure on reserves [5]. 4. **Sector Performance in Q3 Reports** The Q3 reports for Hong Kong stocks show that around 40% of Hang Seng Index constituent companies have reported earnings, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, exceeding expectations by 3%. However, excluding the financial sector, earnings expectations have been revised down by 0.7% [8]. 5. **Sectoral Earnings Adjustments** Earnings expectations have been revised upwards for sectors such as non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, financial dividends, and new consumption, while downward revisions were noted for real estate, automotive, technology hardware, and internet sectors [8]. 6. **A-Share Market Trends** The A-share market has shown a lackluster performance, with defensive value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to declining interest rate expectations and concerns over the overseas AI bubble [9]. 7. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery, such as service consumption, construction, housing services, and home appliances. This approach is suggested due to the lack of strong fundamental support for current market styles [6][7]. 8. **Capacity Cycle Insights** The capacity cycle is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with a focus on industries that significantly expanded capacity between 2021 and 2023 but currently have low utilization rates. Industries are categorized based on their proximity to capacity cycle inflection points [13]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior Influences** The current market behavior is driven more by capital flows and future expectations rather than fundamental data, indicating a speculative trading environment [6]. 2. **Potential for Small-cap Stocks** There are signs of relaxation in private equity securities registration, which may support small-cap stocks, suggesting a potential area of focus for investors [9][10]. 3. **Trends in Q3 Financial Reports** The Q3 financial reports indicate a positive trend with revenue and profit growth showing upward inflection points, suggesting a recovery trajectory that may continue into the future [12]. 4. **Investment Style Adaptation** Historical data suggests that October is typically a period where performance factors are less effective, indicating that a "barbell" strategy, which includes both dividend and small-cap stocks, may be more suitable during such times [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the value style has strengthened and diversified over the past two months, with financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors taking turns to perform well due to the earnings window period before and after year-end, leading to volatility driven mainly by valuation and expectations [1][2] - The current market style diversification is still in a phase driven by valuation, expectations, and capital, which is expected to last for at least 1-2 quarters [3] - For the style diversification to transform into an annual-level trend, the profitability logic of value stocks needs to be realized [3] Group 2 - Historical context indicates that in the second half of 2014, a liquidity bull market saw a shift from TMT to value, with cyclical and stable sectors performing well, but this trend was short-lived [2] - The expansion of style in late 2014 was catalyzed by national strategic policies like the "Belt and Road" initiative and monetary easing, but the core reason was the inflow of incremental capital and the lack of strong growth directions for performance realization [2] - In the second half of 2016, a slow bull market emerged with value stocks outperforming for nearly two years, benefiting from economic stabilization and performance verification [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a "rebalancing" phase starting from the last week of October, driven by Q3 earnings reports showing a "bottom reversal" logic in cyclical sectors alongside technology [1][10][11] - Three main reasons for this shift include synchronized performance of technology and cyclical sectors in Q3, significant gains in technology stocks, and concentrated institutional positions in technology [10][11] - The rebalancing phase is expected to last 1-2 months, with a more balanced style anticipated in 2026, where technology remains favorable in the medium to long term, and cyclical opportunities are expected to improve [11] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, A-shares experienced accelerated capacity reduction, with industries actively adjusting capacity plans under policy guidance [2][16] - Two categories of industries are recommended for focus: those with accelerated capacity reduction supporting price stability and profit margin improvement, such as coal and steel, and those with low current profit margins and active capacity shrinkage, like computers and textiles [2][26][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of analyzing capacity cycles to assess industry trends, categorizing industries based on capital expenditure and profit margin recovery potential [24][26] Group 3 - The micro-cap stock strategy has gained attention, showing resilience in high volatility environments and achieving excess returns through capital efficiency [3][39] - Micro-cap stocks tend to lead index rebounds in a liquidity-friendly environment, with a focus on self-repair and contrarian responses rather than traditional growth strategies [39][43] - The current micro-cap market rally is supported by diversified funding sources and stable structural conditions, indicating potential for further upward movement [39][43] Group 4 - Investment strategies suggest a rebalancing between technology and cyclical sectors, with mid-term opportunities in electric equipment emerging [4][44] - Specific sectors benefiting from PPI improvements and anti-involution policies include solar energy, chemicals, and machinery, while technology sectors like AI hardware and gaming are highlighted for growth potential [4][44] - Long-term holdings are recommended in stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets [4][44]

CFC商品策略研究作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 作者：田亚雄本报告完成时间 | 2025年11月11日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 当前橡胶供应最显著的特征是其刚性约束。这并非源于短期的天气或政策扰动，而是由橡胶树龄结构老 龄化这一根本问题决定的。产能周期已经转向，这意味着即使价格处于相对高位，也难以刺激出大量的 新增供应。 总体而言，橡胶市场正处于"供需弱平衡、库存中性偏低"的状态。短期看，缺乏打破震荡格局的单边驱 动，价格可能继续在当前区间内运行。然而，供应端的刚性约束与需求端的韧性共同构成了价格的底部 支撑。对于投资者而言，相较于追逐单边趋势，关注RU与NR的价差收敛机会可能更具可行性。市场正 在等待一个能够打破当前平衡的强变量，而上述核心因素的演变将决定橡胶何时选择方向，短期维持主 力天胶合约【14800，15500】运行区间的判断。 研究员：田亚雄 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012209 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil and refining sector**, focusing on OPEC's production decisions and their implications for the market and related industries [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **OPEC's Production Decisions**: OPEC has postponed its December production increase and suspended plans for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach due to inventory pressures and market dynamics. This decision reflects the balance of supply and demand in the market [1][2][5]. - **Global Oil Supply Forecast**: Adjusted forecasts for 2026 suggest a potential surplus of 600,000 to 1 million barrels per day, contingent on OPEC's production strategy adjustments. Short-term oil prices are expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **China's Regulatory Changes**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has centralized approval for refining and petrochemical projects, aiming to control overcapacity and optimize industry structure. This includes a reduction in existing capacity for new projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6][8]. - **Chemical Industry Outlook**: The polyester chain has stabilized after a year and a half of destocking, with expectations for demand recovery as global oil prices stabilize. The PX market is projected to improve due to no new capacity additions until 2026 [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation of Petrochemical Stocks**: Current valuations of petrochemical stocks are low, with companies like CNOOC and PetroChina showing PE ratios of 7-10 and 9-11, respectively. This suggests potential investment opportunities as these valuations do not align with their cyclical nature [3][12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The gold-to-oil price ratio is at historical extremes, indicating a potential correction as oil prices stabilize. This presents a favorable environment for investing in undervalued petrochemical stocks [11][12]. - **Future Supply Constraints**: The NDRC's new policies are expected to limit new capacity in the refining and olefin sectors, ensuring market stability post-2027. This aligns with global trends where significant capacity reductions are anticipated in Europe and Korea [8][9]. Conclusion - The oil and refining sector is navigating a complex landscape influenced by OPEC's cautious production strategies and regulatory changes in China. The outlook for petrochemical stocks appears promising due to low valuations and expected demand recovery, making them attractive investment opportunities in the current market environment [1][3][12].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the performance recovery in Q3 2025 is supported by capacity clearance, which in turn aids price improvement. The "policy bottom" signal has become clearer following the public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law in July 2025, leading to expectations of improved competitive landscape and stabilization of PPI year-on-year [3][4][13]. - In Q3 2025, the capital expenditure across the A-share market (excluding financials) continued to decline, with construction projects showing a negative year-on-year growth for the first time in nearly eight years. This indicates proactive adjustments in capacity planning in response to supply excess under policy guidance [4][16][17]. - The report categorizes industries based on their capacity cycle and profitability recovery potential, highlighting two main types: demand-driven industries (e.g., communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, automotive) and supply-side optimized industries (e.g., steel, building materials, construction decoration, light manufacturing, textiles) [5][21][23]. Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on industries where capacity clearance is accelerating and profitability is expected to improve sustainably. Key sectors include coal, steel, power equipment, and building materials, which have shown price support and potential for profit margin enhancement [6][23][35]. - The analysis emphasizes that industries with current low profit margins and active capacity reduction, such as computers, light manufacturing, construction decoration, and textiles, may experience significant performance recovery if demand-side policies or industry upgrades occur [5][23][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the PPI improvement and broad-based benefits from anti-involution policies, particularly in sectors like steel, non-ferrous metals, power, machinery, photovoltaic, and chemicals [6][37].

Core Viewpoint - The short-term market is in a policy and performance vacuum, requiring more catalysts for the index to break through key levels, with the market likely to remain volatile [1] Group 1: Market Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation [1] - In the technology sector, the pressure of crowding has eased, and after adjustments, the cost-effectiveness is gradually improving, focusing on low-position targets in areas such as Hang Seng Technology, domestic computing power, and AI applications [1] - Given the uncertainties both domestically and internationally, previously underperforming dividend stocks are experiencing a rebound, with current opportunities in banks and certain cyclical dividend stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The third-quarter reports and high-frequency indicators are cross-validating, indicating that varieties with non-crowded valuations and chips, such as new energy and chemicals, are worth attention [1] - In the medium term, seven key clues will be monitored: policy cycle, technology cycle, real estate cycle, capacity cycle, inventory cycle, energy cycle, and capital market reform, with advanced manufacturing and pro-cyclical consumption being potential decisive factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend since "9.24", with increasing importance of fundamentals after a valuation correction, supported by the new phase of Sino-US relations, restructuring of the international monetary order, and the AI revolution entering a critical application period [2][5][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The new global order and domestic macroeconomic needs require proactive responses, with the Sino-US relationship entering a new stage, which will continue to promote global capital reallocation favoring Chinese assets [6][12]. - The A-share market is transitioning from valuation recovery to improved profit expectations, with an estimated overall profit growth of around 4.7% for 2026, driven by high-growth sectors and industries nearing performance improvement inflection points [6][30]. - The overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, with the current risk premium of the CSI 300 at 5.2%, indicating a favorable comparison to the bond market in the context of "asset scarcity" [6][30]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on three main lines: 1) Growth in high-prosperity sectors, particularly in AI and innovative industries; 2) Opportunities from external demand, especially in sectors like home appliances and engineering machinery; 3) Cyclical reversals in industries such as chemicals and renewable energy [7][28]. - The market style is expected to become more balanced, driven by the end of the capacity reduction cycle and policies promoting "anti-involution," leading to a closer supply-demand balance in many cyclical industries [7][28]. Group 3: Profit Growth and Structural Analysis - The profit growth for A-shares is projected to be around 4.7% in 2026, with non-financial companies expected to see an 8.2% increase in net profit, supported by policy implementation and the ongoing AI trend [29][30]. - High-growth innovative sectors are anticipated to support the index, with significant contributions expected from AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing [31][32]. - The capacity cycle is showing signs of improvement, with many industries experiencing a turning point after three years of capital expenditure reduction, leading to potential investment opportunities [32][33].

Market Performance - On November 7, A-shares experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.51% [1][2] - The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1] Sector Highlights - Lithium battery electrolyte and phosphorus chemical sectors surged in the afternoon, with stocks like Furui and Qingshuiyuan hitting the daily limit, and Tianji and Duofluor also reaching the limit [3] - The Fujian sector showed strong activity, with Zhangzhou Development hitting the daily limit, marking three limits in four days [3] - The organic silicon sector collectively strengthened, with Dongyue Silicon Material and Hesheng Silicon Industry both hitting the daily limit [3] Downward Trends - The robotics sector faced significant declines, with stocks like Lixing and Zhejiang Rongtai experiencing large drops [5] Market Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that the A-share market will continue a slow bull trend into 2026, driven by asset replacement logic, capital market reforms, and economic transformation [6] - The core logic for the slow bull market includes the diminishing traditional investment attributes of real estate, the strengthening of the capital market's institutional foundation, and the enhancement of economic growth potential through new technologies and industries [6] Profit Recovery Expectations - Analysts suggest that the profit cycle may enter a recovery phase in the first half of next year, with a focus on companies expanding overseas [7] - The profit recovery is expected to exhibit a "factory" shaped characteristic, with the profit bottom potentially appearing by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [7] Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend focusing on four main investment themes: technology growth and self-sufficiency (including computing power, semiconductors, and AI applications), PPI improvement alongside broad anti-involution (including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials), global competitiveness enhancement (including automotive, electronics, and machinery), and domestic structural transformation and consumption recovery (including low-altitude economy, retail, and food sectors) [8] - Special emphasis is placed on new energy strategies, particularly in new energy storage, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [8]