Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan is the leading copper producer in the U.S., accounting for over 70% of the country's refined copper production [1] - The stock is trading significantly below its peers based on forward EV/EBITDA metrics, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - Technical indicators for Freeport-McMoRan are showing bullish trends, suggesting positive market sentiment [1]

31 July 2025 | 10:21AM SGT Base Metals Comment: Copper: Refined Copper Exempt From Section 232 Tariff, Holding To LME Price Forecast Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.da ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is facing a structural shift characterized by a rigid supply shortage at the mining end, excess smelting capacity, and a transition between old and new demand drivers, leading to a long-term upward trend in copper prices [19][24][25]. Group 1: Upstream Resources (Mining and Recycling) - Global copper reserves are approximately 980 million tons, with a mining lifespan of about 40 years based on current production levels [32]. - In 2024, global copper mine production is expected to reach 23 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [35]. - China's copper mine production is projected at 1.8 million tons in 2024, a decline of 1.1% year-on-year, primarily due to resource depletion and environmental restrictions [42][46]. Group 2: Recycling Sector (Recycled Copper) - The recycled copper market is supported by national strategies, aiming for a production target of 4 million tons by 2025, with recycled metal supply accounting for over 24% [4]. - In 2024, China is expected to import 2.25 million tons of scrap copper, with domestic recycling capacity reaching 2.49 million tons [5][48]. - The price of recycled copper is projected to show significant fluctuations, with an average price of 70,400 yuan per ton in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Midstream Smelting - The global refined copper production in 2024 is estimated at 27.634 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [9]. - China is the largest producer of refined copper, accounting for 49.9% of global production in 2024, with a projected output of 13.644 million tons [10]. - The smelting industry is experiencing a decline in processing fees, with long-term contracts expected to drop to $21.25 per ton by 2025, significantly below the breakeven point [8][20]. Group 4: Midstream Processing (Copper Products) - In 2024, China's copper processing output is expected to reach 23.503 million tons, representing over 50% of global production [11]. - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top five companies holding only 30% of the market share [11]. - The demand for high-end copper products is increasing, driven by the growth in new energy and infrastructure sectors [12][13]. Group 5: Downstream Demand (End Applications) - Global refined copper consumption in 2024 is projected at 27.33 million tons, with China accounting for 58% of this demand [14]. - The demand structure in China shows that electricity and power grids account for 46% of refined copper consumption, while new energy applications are rapidly growing [15]. - The transition from traditional to new energy applications is expected to drive significant growth in copper demand, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [19][21]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply-demand balance is expected to show a surplus of 19,000 tons in 2025, a decrease from the previous year's surplus of 30,200 tons [16]. - China's refined copper consumption is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, reaching 16.21 million tons, driven by new energy infrastructure investments [18]. - The copper market is anticipated to face a tightening supply situation due to the rigid shortage of mining resources and the acceleration of smelting capacity clearance [19][20]. Group 7: Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities include resource leaders like Zijin Mining and Longyan Copper, which are positioned to benefit from global resource control [21]. - Smelting leaders such as Jiangxi Copper are expected to gain from policy-driven supply-side reforms and the elimination of inefficient capacity [20]. - Companies focusing on high-end processing and recycled copper, such as Hailiang Co. and Gree Environmental, are likely to benefit from technological advancements and policy support [21].

SHMET 网讯： 4月28日（周一），国际铜研究小组（ICSG）于2025年4月25日在葡萄牙里斯本举行会议。来自世界上大多数主要铜生产和使用国家的政府代表和行业顾问 参加了讨论影响全球铜市场的关键问题。 预计2025年世界铜矿产量将增长2.3%，2026年预计增长2.5% 2025年，世界矿山产量预计将增长2.3%至2,350万吨，主要受益于Kamoa（刚果民主共和国）和Oyu Tolgoi（蒙古）扩建以及新Malmyz矿（俄罗斯）投产带 来的额外产量。这些增长将被澳大利亚、印尼和哈萨克斯坦的预期下降部分抵消。 总体而言，初级电解精炼产量（精矿）预计增长3%，湿法冶炼产量预计增长3.3%，次级产量（来自废料）预计增长2.2%。 2026年，全球精炼铜产量预计将下降1.5%：尽管精炼产量将继续受益于新增和扩大的产能，但初级电解精炼产量的增长预计将受到精矿供应受限的限制， 部分抵消湿法冶炼和次级（废料）产量的增长。 由于多个国家新增及扩大产能，预计2026年湿法冶炼产量将增长2.2%，而次级精炼产量（来自废料）预期将增长6.4%。 预计2025年全球表观精炼铜使用量将增长约2.4%，2026年将增长1.8% ...