ab 16 December 2025 Global Research Mining Strategy China Demand: Signals slow in Nov-25 China's commodity demand indicators weaken in Nov-25 November's commodity demand metrics deteriorated further. Retail sales significantly underperformed expectations, marking the weakest result in three years, while the downturn in the property sector worsened. Sustained weakness from here may present downside risks to demand expectations and prices, especially given economic decision makers in China may delay policy un ...

Market Overview - Major indices opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.95%, Shenzhen Component down 1.68%, and ChiNext down 2.08% [1] - Nearly 4,800 stocks declined across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, with significant drops in computing hardware, semiconductor chips, and precious metals [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3922.58, down 0.95% with 172 gainers and 1992 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component: 12953.84, down 1.68% with 136 gainers and 2633 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3068.95, down 2.08% with 50 gainers and 1310 losers [2] - Northbound trading saw a decline in the Northbound 50 index, down 1.61% [2] External Market Impact - U.S. stock market faced adjustments with the S&P 500 down 1.17%, Nasdaq down 2.04%, and Dow Jones down 0.53% [3] - Chinese concept stocks were affected, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.05% [3] - Notable declines in major Chinese companies: Alibaba down 2.02%, JD.com down 2.93%, and NIO down 3.5% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities predicts an expanding supply-demand gap for copper, with prices potentially exceeding $10,000 per ton by 2026 due to declining production and stable demand [4] - CITIC Jiantou reports a record high in institutional holdings in the communication sector, with a strong recommendation for the AI computing sector [5] - Huatai Securities anticipates continued high demand for fiberglass, carbon fiber, and electronic new materials through 2026, suggesting investment in undervalued companies and those benefiting from domestic demand recovery [6]

Core Insights - The global metal trading industry is experiencing its most profitable year ever, driven by supply disruptions and record-high prices [1][2] - Major players like Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group are on track for their best performance in metal trading, while IXM has already surpassed last year's profits [2] - The surge in metal trading profits contrasts with declining margins in other commodities such as gas, oil, and grains [3] Company Performance - Glencore Plc and Trafigura Group are leading the market, both expected to achieve record profits in metal trading [2] - IXM, the third-largest metals trader, is set to report its third consecutive year of record profits [2] - Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. has made approximately $300 million in trading profits this year, benefiting from increased demand in the metals sector [2] Market Dynamics - The current boom in metal trading profits follows a period of weak demand and volatile prices that previously affected profitability [3] - Supply squeezes and upheavals have significantly contributed to the profits of larger players in the metal trading market [4] - The introduction of potential import tariffs on refined copper by the US government created a significant arbitrage opportunity, leading to unprecedented price premiums for US copper [5]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan is the leading copper producer in the U.S., accounting for over 70% of the country's refined copper production [1] - The stock is trading significantly below its peers based on forward EV/EBITDA metrics, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - Technical indicators for Freeport-McMoRan are showing bullish trends, suggesting positive market sentiment [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **copper industry**, particularly focusing on the implications of recent tariff announcements by the Trump Administration regarding copper imports [2][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - On July 30, the Trump Administration announced a **50% tariff** on US imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products, effective August 1 [2][2]. - **Refined copper and concentrate** are exempt from this tariff, which is crucial as the US relies on imports for **50%** of its domestic copper demand. In contrast, net imports of semi-finished products account for only **7%** of demand [2][2]. - A decision regarding a potential **15% refined copper import tariff** will be made by mid-2026, with the possibility of implementation in 2027 [2][2]. - The near-complete rollback of proposed copper tariffs indicates the Trump Administration's focus on ensuring a secure supply of copper, allowing the US to pursue minerals deals overseas [2][2]. - Following the tariff announcement, the **COMEX copper contract** dropped by **20%** to approximately **$4.46/lb** ($9,830/t), reducing the COMEX-LME arbitrage to about **$150** or a **~2% implied tariff**, down from over **30%** earlier in the week [2][2]. - The market is advised to consider at least a **25% probability** that the Trump Administration will impose the **15% tariff** in 2027, which would likely keep COMEX prices aligned with LME prices [2][2]. - The **50% tariff** on semi-finished products is expected to have minimal impact on exchange prices, and the US has mandated that **25%** of high-grade scrap and concentrate must remain in the US, maintaining the status quo [2][2]. Additional Important Information - The forecast for LME copper prices remains unchanged, with expectations of a low of **$9,550/t** in August, rising to **$9,700/t** by December [2][2]. - The analysis suggests that the recent tariff announcements do not alter the fundamental market dynamics for copper [2][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the copper industry and the implications of recent tariff announcements.

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is facing a structural shift characterized by a rigid supply shortage at the mining end, excess smelting capacity, and a transition between old and new demand drivers, leading to a long-term upward trend in copper prices [19][24][25]. Group 1: Upstream Resources (Mining and Recycling) - Global copper reserves are approximately 980 million tons, with a mining lifespan of about 40 years based on current production levels [32]. - In 2024, global copper mine production is expected to reach 23 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [35]. - China's copper mine production is projected at 1.8 million tons in 2024, a decline of 1.1% year-on-year, primarily due to resource depletion and environmental restrictions [42][46]. Group 2: Recycling Sector (Recycled Copper) - The recycled copper market is supported by national strategies, aiming for a production target of 4 million tons by 2025, with recycled metal supply accounting for over 24% [4]. - In 2024, China is expected to import 2.25 million tons of scrap copper, with domestic recycling capacity reaching 2.49 million tons [5][48]. - The price of recycled copper is projected to show significant fluctuations, with an average price of 70,400 yuan per ton in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Midstream Smelting - The global refined copper production in 2024 is estimated at 27.634 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [9]. - China is the largest producer of refined copper, accounting for 49.9% of global production in 2024, with a projected output of 13.644 million tons [10]. - The smelting industry is experiencing a decline in processing fees, with long-term contracts expected to drop to $21.25 per ton by 2025, significantly below the breakeven point [8][20]. Group 4: Midstream Processing (Copper Products) - In 2024, China's copper processing output is expected to reach 23.503 million tons, representing over 50% of global production [11]. - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top five companies holding only 30% of the market share [11]. - The demand for high-end copper products is increasing, driven by the growth in new energy and infrastructure sectors [12][13]. Group 5: Downstream Demand (End Applications) - Global refined copper consumption in 2024 is projected at 27.33 million tons, with China accounting for 58% of this demand [14]. - The demand structure in China shows that electricity and power grids account for 46% of refined copper consumption, while new energy applications are rapidly growing [15]. - The transition from traditional to new energy applications is expected to drive significant growth in copper demand, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [19][21]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply-demand balance is expected to show a surplus of 19,000 tons in 2025, a decrease from the previous year's surplus of 30,200 tons [16]. - China's refined copper consumption is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, reaching 16.21 million tons, driven by new energy infrastructure investments [18]. - The copper market is anticipated to face a tightening supply situation due to the rigid shortage of mining resources and the acceleration of smelting capacity clearance [19][20]. Group 7: Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities include resource leaders like Zijin Mining and Longyan Copper, which are positioned to benefit from global resource control [21]. - Smelting leaders such as Jiangxi Copper are expected to gain from policy-driven supply-side reforms and the elimination of inefficient capacity [20]. - Companies focusing on high-end processing and recycled copper, such as Hailiang Co. and Gree Environmental, are likely to benefit from technological advancements and policy support [21].

Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held a meeting on April 25, 2025, in Lisbon, Portugal, discussing key issues affecting the global copper market [2] - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025, reaching 23.5 million tons, driven by expansions in Kamoa (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), along with the new Malmyz mine (Russia) [3] - In 2026, global copper mine production is projected to increase by 2.5%, supported by ongoing expansions and improvements in production from Chile and Zambia [4] Group 2 - Global refined copper production is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.9% in 2025, with support from capacity expansions in China and new capacities in Indonesia, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [5] - Primary electrolytic refined production is expected to increase by 3%, while secondary production from scrap is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025 [6] - In 2026, global refined copper production is expected to decline by 1.5%, primarily due to limited supply of concentrates, despite growth in wet smelting and secondary production [6] Group 3 - Global apparent refined copper usage is projected to grow by about 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.8% in 2026, with a downward adjustment from previous forecasts due to uncertainties in international trade policies [8][9] - China’s refined copper usage is expected to grow by approximately 2% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, while Asia remains the main driver of global growth [10] - The overall global usage is expected to benefit from improvements in key copper end-use sectors, energy transition, urbanization, and digitalization [10] Group 4 - The global refined copper balance is forecasted to show a surplus of approximately 289,000 tons in 2025 and about 209,000 tons in 2026 [11][12] - The surplus forecast for 2025 is higher than the previous estimate of 194,000 tons, indicating potential changes in production and usage dynamics [12] - ICSG acknowledges that unforeseen developments may alter the actual market balance compared to predictions [11]