不知大家发现没有，最近去房管局办事，需要准备的材料变简单了。最明显的就是"豪宅税"门槛的调整——以前500万可能就算"非普通住宅"，现在很多城 市这个标准提到了800万甚至更高。这意味着什么？同样一套房子，可能去年要交十几万的税，今年只要几万块。 更实在的是贷款利率。我有个同事上个月刚办完贷款，首套房利率比去年下降了将近1个百分点。算下来30年贷款能省下一辆车的钱。这些变化都不是偶然 的，而是各地在实实在在地降低购房门槛。政策从"限制"转向"支持"，这个风向的转变值得关注。 第二个变化：开发商突然"低调"了 不知道你们所在的城市如何，我所在的城市，去年还在热火朝天开工的新楼盘，今年突然安静了许多。工地上的塔吊少了，售楼处的销售电话却多了——不 是推销新房，而是询问要不要看看他们的尾盘特价房。 最近总有人私信问我同样的问题："现在买房是不是49年入国军？"特别是网上到处流传2026年房价要"腰斩"的说法，让不少准备买房的人夜不能寐。今天我 们不谈复杂的数据，就聊聊身边能感受到的几个实实在在的变化。 第一个变化：政策悄悄"松绑"了 给正在纠结的你 数据显示，全国新开工面积已经连续多个季度下降。开发商不是不想建房子 ...

January 5, 2026 10:55 PM GMT Hong Kong Property Green Lights: Start of an Upcycle We upgrade our Industry view to Attractive. We expect all three sub-segments – HK residential prices, Central (not HK) office rent and HK retail sales – to record positive YoY growth for the first time since 2018. Key Takeaways Anti-consensus call: Consensus believes that the residential price recovery in mid- 2025 was driven by a sharp decline in HIBOR and is cyclical in nature. With China property still deflating, office vac ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 31 December 2025 China Property Another new policy that is unlikely to shift the dial The MOF announced a reduction in value-added tax (VAT)—from 5% to 3%— for sales of homes owned for less than two years. The VAT for sales of homes owned for 2 years or more remains exempt (note: some news headlines may be worded to suggest this VAT exemption is new, but in reality this is not new). The latest move is not a total surprise, as market speculation back in November (more) already su ...

December 29, 2025 08:33 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Monthly Tracker: November Data Deteriorated Further; 2026 may Stay Challenging Home sales saw deeper declines in November with faster price drops. We expect the physical market to stay challenging in 2026 given fast-worsening residential sentiment, higher inventory, reactive policy and a high base. We reiterate our suggestion to stick with quality SOEs with high alpha visibility. Seize the alpha: We expect further share-price divergence between th ...

Key Takeaways The housing market has become a challenging environment for individuals seeking to purchase their first home. And in 2026, conditions don't look like they will improve much. High housing costs and interest rates have served as a barrier for many looking to buy a house, but especially those looking to buy their first home. In fact, National Association of Realtors data showed that just 21% of homes sold in the period between July 2024 and June 2025 went to first-time homebuyers, the lowest July ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 15 Dec 2025 02:56:30 ET │ 15 pages China Property Nov NBS: Sharpest-ever Investment Drop; Time Needed to Stabilize CITI'S TAKE Nov NBS: weakness on all fronts; REI -30%yoy, a record-high — Nov-alone: [1] REI -30.3%yoy (Oct: -22.5%), the sharpest drop on record, with REI of Rmb0.5trn a monthly low since Apr-2012 (excl. CNY); [2] Completion -26%yoy (Oct: -28%); [3] Starts -28%yoy (Oct -29%); [4] Residential sales -28% (Oct: -25%), largest single month drop since May'24; resi GFA sold -19% ( ...

，都说未来房价似白菜价，最近中央定调确定了未来的房产如歌发展，这还没过去多久，就发现二手房挂牌数量暴涨，难道连二手房也卖不动了吗？这中间 到底有什么关系？二手房为啥突然之间上涨这么多？ 二手房市场的寒流，比今年的冬天来得更早，11月全国70个主要城市二手房价格集体环比下滑，没一个城市能保住上涨势头，这是实打实的历史首次，其中 广州跌幅高达7.2%！ 国家统计局的数据摆在那，今年11月一线城市二手房价格环比跌了1.1%，作为楼市的"压舱石"，一线城市已经连续7个月领跌，跌幅还在一步步扩大，它们 都扛不住，二三线城市的日子更难熬。 北京西三环有个老小区，业主王女士的房子挂牌3个月，从680万降到650万，还是没人来看，中介跟她说，小区里同户型的挂牌房源就有8套，大家都在比着 降价。 贝壳平台的最新数据更直观，全国二手房挂牌量已经冲到650万套，4年前这个数字才400万套，相当于4年里多了250万套房子等着卖，增长幅度刚好是 60%，妥妥的历史高位。 这背后是供需的彻底反转，以前是买房的抢着排队，业主坐地起价；现在是卖房的排着长队，买房的挑挑拣拣，不少中介门店的玻璃上，都贴着"直降20 万""业主急售"的红色横幅。 ...

挂牌一年多，降价40万，依然卖不掉。这不是故事，而是当下许多二手房业主的真实困境。 当大多数人还在紧盯房价涨跌时，一些业主已经遭遇了更棘手的问题：房子根本卖不出去。降价也无人问津，房子从"资产"变成了实实在在的"冻产"。 数据显示，2025年一些三四线城市二手房挂牌量激增47%，成交量却暴跌超60%。房子正在失去流动性，这意味着急需用钱时无法变现，置换改善居住条件 也成了空谈。 在某个中部县级市，一套120平米的电梯房，2021年挂牌价120万，2022年降到90万，2023年降到75万，至今仍在挂牌。业主从最初的"每周催中介"，到后来 的"接受全款大刀砍"，再到现在的"只要有人买，价格好商量"。 过去，房子被视为最稳妥的资产，如今却陷入了"越降越没人买"的怪圈。一套房降价5%，看房的人会想"再等等，可能降10%"；降价10%，买方又会猜 测"是不是房子有问题"；等到降价20%，这套房反而会被贴上"劣质资产"标签。 房产流动性枯竭的问题不仅限于三四线城市。2025年，全国二手房挂牌量已激增至730万套，北京14.7万套，上海17万套，成都和武汉更突破了20万套。 购房时，大多数人只计算了首付和月供，很少认真考 ...

16 December 2025 | 7:45AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY MONTHLY TRACKER Another month of slippage, and likely carry forward in Dec Nov 2025 nationwide ASP decline persisted and primary sales dropped -17%/-25% yoy by vol/value (largely inline). New starts fell sharply for the second consecutive month, near -30% yoy in Nov, and completions and FAI undershot our estimates at -25%/-30% yoy. Nov FAI reached the lowest level since 2012 (excl. Jan-Feb which are reported on a combined level). Secondary transac ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 10 Dec 2025 10:55:22 ET │ 54 pages See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. New round of local stimulus; watch for pro-leverage initiatives but unlikely for now — i) we believe new round of demand-side local stimulus (incl. purchase subsidies) in 4Q25 might help but are unlikely to alter home price expectations; ii) we would watch for targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives but see low likelihood for now; iii) urban ...