Core Insights - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined by 20% in 2026, driven by investor concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on enterprise software tools [1] - Atlassian's stock has experienced a significant drop of 39% in 2026 and is down 80% from its peak in 2021, indicating severe market pressure [2] - Despite stock performance, Atlassian's annualized revenue has reached a record high, suggesting that the negative market sentiment may be exaggerated [3] Company Overview - Atlassian offers software products aimed at enhancing organizational productivity through improved collaboration and streamlined workflows [2] - The company's main products, Jira and Confluence, are increasingly being adopted by non-technical departments, expanding their usage beyond software development teams [4] AI Integration - Atlassian launched an AI platform named Rovo in 2024, which enhances Jira and Confluence with advanced search capabilities and integration with third-party applications [5] - Rovo facilitates collaboration among employees through a chat function and allows the creation of custom AI agents for specific tasks, demonstrating its versatility [6] - As of the end of Atlassian's fiscal 2026 second quarter, Rovo has achieved over 5 million monthly active users, marking a significant milestone for a product that is less than two years old [6]

Core Insights - ServiceNow's product expansion is accelerating, leading to measurable growth and reinforcing the case for continued upside [1] - Major fourth-quarter growth drivers include Now Assist, Workflow Data Fabric, Raptor, and CPQ, which have outperformed expectations and gained widespread adoption in large enterprise deals [1][2] Product Expansion and Adoption - Growing attach rates and multi-product adoption are enhancing ServiceNow's expansion, with Workflow Data Fabric included in most large deals and Raptor achieving triple-digit growth in new contract value [2] - Now Assist has surpassed $600 million in annual contract value, indicating strong AI monetization and faster multi-module deployments as customers scale AI for productivity and cost efficiency [2] Enterprise Deal Activity - The product-led momentum is translating into stronger enterprise deal activity, with major contract wins and a rising base of high-value customers [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts revenue growth of over 20% in 2026, supporting a favorable outlook for ServiceNow [3] Competitive Landscape - ServiceNow faces competition from Salesforce and Atlassian in its product expansion efforts [4] - Salesforce is extending its Agentforce into IT service and workflow automation, challenging traditional workflow tools with a unified data platform and embedded AI [5] - Atlassian is accelerating its product expansion with an AI-powered "system of work," integrating various tools and extending service capabilities into HR and finance [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - ServiceNow shares have declined 45.8% over the past year, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which returned 23.7% [7] - The forward 12-month price/sales ratio for ServiceNow is 6.84X, compared to the sector's 6.54X, indicating that the stock may be overvalued [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ServiceNow's 2026 earnings is $4.12 per share, reflecting a 17.38% year-over-year increase [14]

Core Viewpoint - The sell-off in software stocks is considered overdone by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who argues that the market has overreacted to concerns about AI disrupting the software industry [1][5]. Software Industry Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined 30% from its peak, entering bear market territory, driven by fears surrounding AI's impact on software companies [1]. - Huang believes that AI tools will complement existing software rather than replace it, suggesting that the current market sentiment is illogical [5]. Attractive Software Stocks - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Stock down 27% from its high, currently trading at 26 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 24% last quarter and a 160% increase in paid copilot seats [6]. - **Datadog (DDOG)**: Stock down 47% from its high, trading at 53 times adjusted earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 20% last quarter despite high R&D spending [7]. - **AppLovin (APP)**: Stock down 52% from its high, trading at 45 times earnings, with earnings up 96% last quarter [8]. - **Atlassian (TEAM)**: Stock down 70% from its high, trading at 22 times earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 27% last quarter [9]. - **HubSpot (HUBS)**: Stock down 73% from its high, trading at 25 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 22% last quarter [9]. Market Outlook - While software stocks may continue to decline in the near term, long-term investors are likely to benefit from purchasing stocks at reasonable prices, anticipating significant earnings growth over the next five years [10].

Core Insights - Atlassian's performance in Q2 fiscal 2026 was driven by enterprise execution, cloud momentum, and AI adoption, with a record number of deals over $1 million in annual contract value nearly doubling year-over-year [2][3] - The company surpassed $6 billion in annual run rate revenue and achieved its first-ever $1 billion Cloud revenue quarter, with cloud revenue increasing by approximately 26% year-over-year [4][6] - Remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew by 44% year-over-year to $3.8 billion, indicating strong multi-year customer commitments [4][8] AI and Monetization - AI is a significant monetization driver for Atlassian, with over 5 million monthly active users of its AI capabilities and more than 1,000 customers upgrading to the Teamwork Collection, purchasing over 1 million seats [4][6] - The Teamwork Collection has become the main AI monetization driver, with customers citing AI capabilities as a reason for upgrading [6][7] Enterprise Growth and Customer Engagement - The company is experiencing accelerating enterprise momentum, with a record number of deals exceeding $1 million in annual contract value [3][4] - Customer conversations have evolved to focus on strategic partnerships, with clients deploying Atlassian's AI features into millions of workflows monthly [7][8] Pricing and Revenue Strategy - Atlassian's pricing strategy remains seat-based, with a focus on delivering value and predictable pricing for customers [9][10] - The company believes there is room for further pricing adjustments due to ongoing innovation and competitive positioning [10] Cloud Migration and Service Collection - Healthy cloud migrations contributed to mid- to high-single-digit impacts on cloud revenue growth rates [11] - The Service Collection is expanding beyond IT into areas like HR and finance, with significant growth in non-IT use cases [12][13] Future Outlook - Management reiterated confidence in achieving medium-term targets of over 20% compounded annual revenue growth and a 25%+ non-GAAP operating margin by FY 2027 [14]

Atlassian (NasdaqGS:TEAM) Q2 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAlex Zukin - Managing Director of Software Equity ResearchGregg Moskowitz - Managing Director of Enterprise SoftwareItay Kidron - Managing DirectorJason Celino - Managing DirectorJoe Binz - CFOKarl Keirstead - Managing Director of Software Equity ResearchKoji Ikeda - Director of Enterprise Software Equity ResearchMartin Lam - Head of Investor RelationsMike Cannon-Brookes - CEO and Co-FounderRaimo Lenschow - Man ...

Atlassian (NasdaqGS:TEAM) Q2 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsGregg Moskowitz - Managing Director of Enterprise SoftwareItay Kidron - Managing DirectorJason Celino - Managing DirectorJoe Binz - CFOKarl Keirstead - Managing Director of Software Equity ResearchKoji Ikeda - Director of Enterprise Software Equity ResearchMartin Lam - Head of Investor RelationsMike Cannon-Brookes - CEORaimo Lenschow - Managing DirectorRyan MacWilliams - VP of Business Performance and Global Tr ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Atlassian closed Q2 with an annual run rate revenue surpassing $6 billion, achieving its first-ever $1 billion cloud revenue quarter, which represents a 26% year-over-year increase [5] - Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) grew 44% year-over-year to $3.8 billion, indicating strong future revenue visibility [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cloud revenue segment saw significant growth, contributing to the overall revenue increase, while the Data Center (DC) segment is expected to decline due to tough comparisons [31][30] - The Teamwork Collection, which includes AI capabilities, has seen over 1 million seats sold in under nine months, indicating strong adoption and demand [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Atlassian reported a net revenue retention (NRR) rate of over 120%, reflecting strong customer loyalty and expansion [19] - The company noted that customers using AI code generation tools experienced a 5% increase in task creation and monthly active users compared to those not using these tools [6][60] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Atlassian is focusing on enterprise, AI, and system-of-work transformations, positioning itself as a strategic partner for large enterprises [5][9] - The company is committed to enhancing its AI capabilities and integrating them into customer workflows, which is seen as a key driver for future growth [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth trajectory, emphasizing the importance of AI in driving customer engagement and operational efficiency [9][35] - Despite market noise and concerns, management believes that Atlassian is well-positioned to help customers navigate challenges and improve their business processes [15][16] Other Important Information - Atlassian's service collection is growing rapidly, with over 65,000 customers and significant year-over-year growth in the enterprise segment [67] - The company is recognized as a leader in enterprise service management, with a strong focus on integrating AI into service workflows [69] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in customer conversations and AI's impact - Management noted that customer conversations have become more strategic, with clients seeking partnerships to leverage AI capabilities, which are driving upgrades to the Teamwork Collection [12][13] Question: Pricing evolution and customer preferences - Management indicated that current pricing models are delivering value, and customers prefer predictable, seat-based pricing, which aligns with their needs [20][21] Question: Competitive landscape and AI tools - Management acknowledged the emergence of new AI tools but emphasized the unique value of Atlassian's offerings and its integration capabilities with various platforms [25][27] Question: Cloud migration impact on revenue - Management reported healthy cloud migrations contributing mid- to high-single-digit impacts to cloud revenue growth rates [49] Question: Seat expansion dynamics - Management highlighted broad-based seat expansion across both tech and non-tech users, particularly in business functions, indicating strong demand for Atlassian's products [52][56] Question: JSM growth and competitive dynamics - Management confirmed that the service collection is performing well, with significant growth in HR and finance sectors, and emphasized the importance of integrating AI into service workflows [68][69]

Core Viewpoint - Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is identified as one of the tech stocks with significant upside potential despite recent price target reductions from Wall Street analysts [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - UBS analyst Karl Kierstead reduced the price target for Atlassian shares from $185 to $145, maintaining a Hold rating, which indicates a potential upside of 21.26% from current levels [1]. - Bank of America analyst Koji Ikeda also lowered the price target from $200 to $170 while reaffirming a Hold rating, suggesting a 26% upside from current levels [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - The downward adjustments in price targets reflect concerns over waning investor sentiment in the software sector, particularly due to fears surrounding AI disruption [2]. - The adjustments are attributed to elevated risks associated with AI-related concerns and valuation multiple compression across the software industry [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Atlassian Corporation is a provider of collaboration software, with a product portfolio that includes Jira, Confluence, Loom, Jira Service Management, and Rovo [3]. - The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia [3].

Core Viewpoint - Anthropic's new Cowork feature has negatively impacted Atlassian's stock, which is down 21% in 2026, but analysts believe the market reaction is exaggerated and see significant upside potential for Atlassian's stock price [1][2][8] Group 1: Market Reaction and Analyst Outlook - Despite the stock decline, most Wall Street analysts maintain a positive outlook, with a median price target of $225, indicating a potential 76% upside over the next year [2] - Analysts believe the fears surrounding competition from AI services like Anthropic's Cowork are overstated, as they still project strong earnings growth for Atlassian [8] Group 2: Atlassian's AI Integration and Strategy - Atlassian is actively integrating AI features into its products, with over 3.5 million workers utilizing its AI capabilities, leading to increased engagement through third-party AI tools [5] - The company introduced Rovo, an AI agent platform, in May 2024, which aims to provide insights and generate workflows based on enterprise data, similar to the features offered by Claude Cowork [6] - Atlassian is transitioning its customer base to cloud-based subscriptions, which will reduce maintenance costs and accelerate feature rollouts, with a complete transition expected by early 2029 [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The introduction of Anthropic's Cowork feature raises concerns about potential displacement of Atlassian's software, but the company is expected to maintain its market position due to significant switching costs for customers [4][6]

Industry Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has underperformed the S&P 500 by 19 percentage points over the past year, marking the worst relative performance for the software industry since the bear market of 2022 [1] - Concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting traditional business models have contributed to this underperformance, with investors worried about reduced demand for many software products [2] AppLovin - AppLovin is projected to have a 45% upside based on the median target price of $774.50 per share, compared to its current price of $533 [8] - The company specializes in ad tech software that enhances consumer engagement and monetizes web content through targeted campaigns, having expanded from mobile gaming to e-commerce advertising [5] - AppLovin differentiates itself by earning revenue based on ad performance rather than a percentage of ad spend, and its AI-powered recommendation engine, Axon, significantly outperforms competitors [6] - Axon reportedly drives a 45% higher return on ad spending compared to Meta Platforms and 115% higher than platforms like TikTok and YouTube [7] - Wall Street estimates that AppLovin's adjusted earnings will grow at an annual rate of 58% through 2027, making its current valuation of 66 times earnings appear reasonable [8] Atlassian - Atlassian has an implied upside of 84% based on a median target price of $225 per share, compared to its current price of $122 [13] - The company develops work management and collaboration software for both technical and non-technical teams, recognized as a technology leader in various categories by Gartner [9] - Atlassian invests heavily in R&D and is unique in connecting technical, non-technical, and IT service teams on a single platform, which enhances collaboration and upselling opportunities [10] - The introduction of generative AI features called Rovo aims to improve productivity and efficiency across business teams, positioning Atlassian as a potential winner in the AI boom [11] - Wall Street anticipates Atlassian's adjusted earnings to increase at 22% annually through the fiscal year ending in June 2027, with a current valuation of 31 times earnings appearing reasonable [12]