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永安期货集运早报-20251110
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continued to weaken in a volatile manner on Friday, with a neutral valuation for December. Considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The market is expected to follow the December trend in the short term. If the peak season materializes, the valuation of the February contract is harder to determine, and it may have more upside potential. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile operation in the short - term within the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a strategy of selling on rallies is recommended. - For the recent European line quotes, the cargo booking for Week 45 was completed, and shipping companies could fill their ships. The cargo collection in Week 46 on the PA route improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure will increase in the second half of November, while the cargo volume may pick up. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: On November 10, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, 1376.1, 1499.2, and 1133.4 respectively, with changes of - 1.96%, - 0.56%, - 1.14%, - 2.69%, 1.02%, and - 0.58% compared to the previous day. Their open interest changed by - 2525, 314, 122, - 3, 5, and 32 respectively. [2] - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 647.4, 220.0, and 427.4 respectively on November 10, 2025. Compared to the previous day, they changed by - 22.8, - 27.2, and 4.4 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: As of November 3, 2025, the SCFIS was 1208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% from the previous period. As of November 7, 2025, the SCFI (European line) was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period; and the NCFI was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period. [2] News and Quotes - **Palestinian - Israeli Conflict News**: On November 9, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas stated that armed personnel in the Rafah area under Israeli control would not surrender to Israel. On November 10, the Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire in Gaza breaks down, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. [4] - **European Line Quotes**: In Week 45, the average landed price was about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market). In Week 46, it was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and it is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week. There may also be an announced price increase for December. [3]