集运现货(SCFIS
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集运早报-20251110
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 06:32
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to fluctuate weakly on Friday. With the subsequent peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December as positive drivers, it is recommended to take a dip - buying approach overall. The market is expected to mainly follow the trend of the December contract in the short term. Observe the cargo - picking situation during the peak season. Freight rate highs usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year). If the peak season is gradually realized, the February contract may have more upside potential. The April contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach considering the expected greater supply pressure and the off - season in April next year [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1812.0, down 1.96% (-603.3); EC2602 at 1592.0, down 0.56% (-383.3); EC2604 at 1164.6, down 1.14% (44.1); EC2606 at 1376.1, down 2.69% (-167.4); EC2608 at 1499.2, up 1.02% (-290.5); EC2610 at 1133.4, down 0.58% (75.3) [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 17121, and the open interest was 25887 with a decrease of 2525; EC2602 had a volume of 5303, open interest of 22939 with an increase of 314; EC2604 had a volume of 1193, open interest of 14330 with an increase of 122; EC2606 had a volume of 74, open interest of 1452 with a decrease of 3; EC2608 had a volume not fully shown, open interest of 1311 with an increase of 5; EC2610 had a volume of 154, open interest of 1464 with an increase of 32 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 647.4, with a daily decrease of 22.8 and a weekly decrease of 20.5; EC2512 - 2602 was 220.0, with a daily decrease of 27.2 and a weekly decrease of 40.8; EC2502 - 2604 was 427.4, with a daily increase of 4.4 and a weekly increase of 20.3 [2] Spot Market - **SCFIS**: Updated weekly on Mondays, as of November 3, 2025, it was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period [2] - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on a day described as "weekly nine", as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down 1.56% from the previous period [2] - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on a day described as "weekly nine", as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period [2] - **NCFI**: Updated weekly on a day described as "weekly nine", as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotation - **45th Week**: The average landed price was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market) [3] - **46th Week**: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and it is expected that other shipping companies' quotes will be gradually lowered this week. There may also be a price increase announcement for December [3] Related News - On November 9, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas stated that armed personnel in the Rafah area under Israeli control would not surrender to Israel. They urged mediators to take responsibility to avoid the breakdown of the cease - fire. Egypt had proposed a plan allowing about 200 armed personnel in Rafah to have safe passage on the condition of handing over weapons and providing the location of underground tunnels, but the Qassam Brigades strongly rejected it [4] - On November 10, the Houthi armed forces warned that if the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip breaks down, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [4] Index Delay - The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days [5]
永安期货集运早报-20251110
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continued to weaken in a volatile manner on Friday, with a neutral valuation for December. Considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The market is expected to follow the December trend in the short term. If the peak season materializes, the valuation of the February contract is harder to determine, and it may have more upside potential. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile operation in the short - term within the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a strategy of selling on rallies is recommended. - For the recent European line quotes, the cargo booking for Week 45 was completed, and shipping companies could fill their ships. The cargo collection in Week 46 on the PA route improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure will increase in the second half of November, while the cargo volume may pick up. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: On November 10, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, 1376.1, 1499.2, and 1133.4 respectively, with changes of - 1.96%, - 0.56%, - 1.14%, - 2.69%, 1.02%, and - 0.58% compared to the previous day. Their open interest changed by - 2525, 314, 122, - 3, 5, and 32 respectively. [2] - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 647.4, 220.0, and 427.4 respectively on November 10, 2025. Compared to the previous day, they changed by - 22.8, - 27.2, and 4.4 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: As of November 3, 2025, the SCFIS was 1208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% from the previous period. As of November 7, 2025, the SCFI (European line) was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period; and the NCFI was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period. [2] News and Quotes - **Palestinian - Israeli Conflict News**: On November 9, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas stated that armed personnel in the Rafah area under Israeli control would not surrender to Israel. On November 10, the Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire in Gaza breaks down, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. [4] - **European Line Quotes**: In Week 45, the average landed price was about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market). In Week 46, it was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and it is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week. There may also be an announced price increase for December. [3]
集运早报-20251029
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On Monday night, multiple shipping companies reduced prices, leading to a downward oscillation in the Tuesday trading session. Currently, there is no obvious improvement in cargo volume, but shipping companies have implemented numerous sailings cancellations. The market anticipates that the freight rates in November will settle between $2000 - $2200 (1400 - 1540 points). Overall, driven by subsequent price - support and contract - signing factors, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for contracts 12 and 02. Contract 12 has a neutral valuation, and trading should focus on the "announced increase - implementation - announced increase - implementation" cycles. For contract 04, a strategy of shorting on rallies is advised [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1788.3 with a 0.75% increase, a basis of - 475.6, trading volume of 26019, and an open interest of 28900 with an increase of 905 - EC2602 closed at 1548.7 with a 1.46% decrease, a basis of - 236.0, trading volume of 6213, and an open interest of 13910 with an increase of 772 - EC2604 closed at 1162.7 with a 1.37% decrease, a basis of 150.0, trading volume of 2279, and an open interest of 14279 with an increase of 133 - EC2606 closed at 1374.0 with a 0.94% decrease, a basis of - 61.3, trading volume of 154, and an open interest of 1402 with an increase of 31 [1] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 1144.2, with a daily change of - 1136.6, and previous values of - 1788.3, - 644.1, - 693.2 - EC2512 - 2602 spread was 36.2, with a daily change of 34.2, and previous values of 239.6, 203.4, 230.0 [1] Spot Indexes - SCEIS was updated on 2025/10/27, reaching 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period, which had a 10.52% increase - SCFI (European Line) was updated on 2025/10/24, at $1246/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period, which had a 7.21% increase - CCFI (European Line) was updated on 2025/10/24, at 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period, which had a 1.49% decrease - NCFI was updated on 2025/10/24, at 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period, which had a 14.96% increase [1] Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking cargo space for early November (Week 45). In Week 44, offline quotes were PA $1400, GEMINI $1600, and OA $1800 - Shipping companies announced price increases to $2500 - $2700 in November, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened bookings at $2350, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies reduced prices to $1900 - $2300 - On Monday, HMM cut prices to $1900, HPL to $2335, ONE to $2135, and MSC to $2265 - On Tuesday, MSK dropped to $2200, OOCL to $2150, and YML on a single route to $1900 [1] News - On 10/28, Hamas militants fired at Israeli troops in Gaza, and the Israeli Prime Minister ordered a strong counter - attack - On 10/29, Hamas denied involvement in the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and stated its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also claimed that Israeli military attacks violated the cease - fire and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations - On 10/29, US Vice - President Vance stated that the cease - fire agreement was still in effect [1]