集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 環 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓星 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1604.8 | -0.51% | 137.8 | 151 | | 1695 | | | | EC2602 | | 1822.9 | -0.09% | -80.3 | 24389 | | 30437 | 20 -1412 | | | EC2604 | | 1169.9 | 1 31% | 5/2.7 | 6/62 | | 21197 | -265 | | | EC2606 | | 1374.0 | 4.39% | 368.6 | 984 | | 2350 | 110 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1497.7 | 0.7/8% | 244.9 | 110 | | 1206 | 14 | | | EC2610 | | 1054.7 | 0.51% | ...

集运早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/26 କିଲ୍ଲି 昨日收盘价 涨跌 其我 昨日成交昼 昨日持仓昼 待仓变动 EC2512 0.13% -18.8 112 1714 -76 1608.0 EC2602 1799.7 0.22% -210.5 28762 34250 -66 EC2604 1164.5 -0 04% 424.7 6267 21254 264 EC2606 1320.0 0 08% 269.2 258 2126 -19 FC2608 1496 7 1.06% 92 5 112 1181 -12 期货 0.75% 277 EC2610 5941 1059.0 530.2 811 日环比 周环比 月姜 前两日 前- -B 前三日 2.6 -64.4 EC2512-2504 443.5 448.0 440.9 -123.9 -191.7 -1.8 EC2512-2602 -189.9 -200.6 4.4 59.5 EC2502-2604 630.8 648.6 635.2 本期涨跌 更新频率 公布日期 क्र (2) 本期 前- 一期 前两期 上期涨跌 指惋 SCFIS 每周 2025/1 ...

Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on December 18, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2]. 1. Futures Market 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Changes - EC2512 closed at 1632.0 with a 0.03% increase, EC2602 at 1699.8 with a 0.77% increase, EC2604 at 1124.1 with a 1.02% increase, EC2606 at 1283.7 with a 0.49% decrease, EC2608 at 1448.1 with a 0.98% decrease, and EC2610 at 1045.2 with a 0.38% increase [2]. 1.2 Futures Contract Positions and Changes - The positions of EC2512 decreased by 348 to 2218, EC2602 decreased by 12 to 31971, EC2604 decreased by 869 to 19059, EC2606 increased by 1 to 2306, EC2608 decreased by 26 to 1325, and EC2610 increased by 84 to 4795 [2]. 1.3 Futures Month - spreads - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 507.9, down 10.9 from the previous day and 83.2 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 67.8, down 12.5 from the previous day and 112.7 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 was 55.7, up 1.6 from the previous day and 29.5 week - on - week [2]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Indexes - The SCFI (European line) was 1538 US dollars/TEU on December 12, 2025, up 9.86% from the previous period; CCFI was 1470.55 points, up 1.59%; NCFI was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% [2]. 2.2 European Line Spot Quotes - In Week 51, MSK opened at 2400 (up 200 from the previous period), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars; in Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (down 100). In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively. MSC opened at 2864 US dollars (up 200), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4]. 3. Market Analysis and Suggestions 3.1 Overall Market Trend - There has been no obvious trending market recently, and the futures market has fluctuated widely around the news of MSK's cabin opening [2]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - After the 02 contract, the market depends on the spot trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of the freight rate in January. Historically, the freight rate peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase [2]. 3.3 Trading Suggestions - Currently, the risk - reward ratio for both shorting and going long is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the short - term, the downside space for the 04 contract is small, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot or recovers the basis. For the far - month contracts, a positive spread trading strategy can be considered, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [2][3]. 4. Related News - On December 17, the head of Mossad claimed that Iran still desired to build nuclear weapons, increasing the possibility of further conflict between the two countries [5].

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को प्रति | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 裏 | 昨日成交星 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1649.8 | -0.01 % | -139.2 | 274 | | 2724 | -223 | | | EC2602 | | 1746.0 | 4.06% | -235.4 | 28275 | | 33065 | 1401 | | | EC2604 | | 1149.7 | 3.95% | 360.9 | 7432 | | 19657 | -276 | | | EC2606 | | 1306.7 | 3.64% | 203.9 | 6/9 | | 2335 | - 20 | | | EC2608 | | 1479.9 | 3.37% | 30.7 | 402 | | 1441 | -114 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 10 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there are expectations for the peak season. Despite high capacity, the spot price in January is not expected to be overly pessimistic due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the price cut in December benefiting the price increase in January. If the peak season is gradually realized, the 02 contract may have more upside potential. The 04 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1636.7 yesterday, up 0.34%, with a basis of - 153.1, a trading volume of 705, an open interest of 4286, and an open interest change of - 215. EC2602 closed at 1492.5, up 1.40% (0.54% might be a misprint), with a basis of - 8.8, a trading volume of 26585, an open interest of 38244, and an open interest change of - 1867 (- 129 might be a misprint). EC2604 closed at 1078.0, with a basis of 405.7, a trading volume of 4192, and an open interest of 18614. EC2606 closed at 1237.0, up 1.79%, with a basis of 246.7, a trading volume of 278, an open interest of 2170, and an open interest change of - 84. EC2608 closed at 1357.2, up 1.36%, with a basis of 126.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 1622, and an open interest change of - 8. EC2610 closed at 1033.2, up 1.19%, with a basis of 450.5, a trading volume of 441, an open interest of 3888, and an open interest change of - 86 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 558.7, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 82.0 week - on - week. EC2512 - 2602 was 144.2, down 15.0 from the previous day and down 7.6 week - on - week. EC2502 - 2604 was 414.5, up 14.8 from the previous day and down 8.4 week - on - week [2] Spot Market - The SCFI (European line) index on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, with a price of 1404 dollars/TEU. The CCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period. The NCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Spot Situation - The price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the disk. YML cut the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 dollars. In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 dollars, and ONE increased the price to 2800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [4] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, the Lebanese Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on a senior commander [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market on Wednesday showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Under the pressure of high capacity in December and January, short - sellers were actively trading, and the peak - season price increase was limited [2]. - The valuation of the 12 - contract is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The 02 - contract is expected to mainly follow the spot price in the short term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. However, considering the late Chinese New Year this year and the good overall volume of China - Europe shipping, it's difficult to prove or disprove the non - peak season in the short term. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the 02 - contract may have more upside potential. The 04 - contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1763.3, down 0.35% with a basis of - 405.6; the EC2602 contract closed at 1640.1, down 2.26% with a basis of - 282.4; the EC2604 contract closed at 1162.7, down 1.43% with a basis of 195.0; the EC2606 contract closed at 1382.0, down 0.22% with a basis of - 24.3; the EC2608 contract closed at 1490.1, down 1.29% with a basis of - 132.4; the EC2610 contract closed at 1110.0, down 0.18% with a basis of 247.7 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 2452, and the open interest was 9568, a decrease of 864; the trading volume of EC2602 was 18687, and the open interest was 40244, an increase of 1384; the trading volume of EC2604 was 2358, and the open interest was 15944, a decrease of 201; the trading volume of EC2606 was 92, and the open interest was 1582, a decrease of 3; the trading volume of EC2608 was 118, and the open interest was 1212, an increase of 51; the trading volume of EC2610 was 264, and the open interest was 2520 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 600.6, with a daily increase of 10.7 and a weekly increase of 42.3; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 123.2, with a daily increase of 31.8 and a weekly increase of 67.6; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 477.4, with a daily decrease of 21.1 and a weekly decrease of 25.3 [2]. Spot Market - **Indices and Changes**: The SCHIS index (updated every Monday) was 1357.67 on November 17, 2025, down 9.78% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line, updated weekly) was 1417 dollars/TEU on November 14, 2025, up 7.11% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1403.64 points on November 14, 2025, up 2.69% from the previous period; the NCFI was 979.34 on November 14, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 48**: Currently, MSK's opening price is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous price, and OA has not adjusted the price. The average price is 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price - increase letters for December, and other shipping companies may follow this week [4]. - **Week 49**: On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. On Wednesday, MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced the price to 2506 dollars [5]. Related News - The White House is about to announce a major new peace agreement with Russia, which is expected to end the three - and - a - half - year Russia - Ukraine conflict. An agreement framework is expected to be reached by the end of this month, or even "as soon as this week" [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Tuesday trading session saw the market give back some of the gains from Monday. The valuation of the EC2512 contract is considered neutral, and it will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly track the spot market. Before the peak season in December is realized, the market is less likely to believe that January will also be a peak season. The high point of freight rates usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year). If the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be approached with a short - selling strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on November 19, 2025, showed declines. For example, EC2512 closed at 1769.5, down 1.27% (-411.8); EC2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.78% (-320.4); etc. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for EC2610, which had an increase of 51 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of different contract combinations also changed. For instance, EC2512 - 2504 spread was 580.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 22.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 91.4, with a day - on - day increase of 25.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 81.9 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Indices**: The SCHIS index on November 17, 2025, was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% from the previous period. The SCF (European line) on November 14, 2025, was 1417 dollars/EU, up 7.1% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1403.64 points, up 2.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. - **European Line Quotations**: Shipowners previously announced price increases of 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November. In Week 47, the offline PA was around 1900 - 2100, OA and Gemini were at 2200 - 2400, with an average of 2260 dollars (equivalent to about 1580 points on the futures market). In Week 48, the average was 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price increase notices for December, and MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, which was in line with expectations [4]. 3.3 Related News - Hamas stated that it is legitimate to resist Israel by all means and refused to disarm. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Gaza, which was welcomed by the State of Palestine. The resolution aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure unimpeded access and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the right of the Palestinian people to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the overall futures market showed a volatile trend, with contracts EC2512, EC2606, and EC2608 relatively strong, possibly due to a rebound from previous declines caused by geopolitical factors [1]. - The valuation of EC2512 is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rates in late November will determine the implementation of price - holding in December, and it is expected to follow spot price changes and shipping companies' price - increase announcements [1]. - The valuation of EC2602 is difficult to determine, and it is expected to follow EC2512 in the short term. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation meets expectations, it may have greater upside potential as the freight rate usually peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [1]. - EC2604 is a off - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short - term under the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure and the off - season in April next year, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Information Futures Contract Prices and Changes - **Single - Contract Prices**: For example, EC2512 had a closing price of 1782.3 with a change of 1.88%, and a position change of - 277.5; EC2602 had a closing price of 1632.0 with a change of - 127.2 [1]. - **Spread between Contracts**: The spread between FC2512 - 2504 was 612.0, and the spread between FC2512 - 2602 was 150.3 [1]. Index Data - **SCFIS (European Line)**: As of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80, with a week - on - week increase of 24.50% and a two - week decrease of 7.92% [1]. - **SCEI (European Line)**: As of November 7, 2025, it was 1323, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56% and a two - week increase of 7.87% [1]. - **CCFI**: As of November 1, 2025, it was 1366.85, with a week - on - week increase of 3.25% and a two - week increase of 2.37% [1]. - **NCFI**: As of November 1, 2025, it was 911.73, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58% and a two - week increase of 17.43% [1]. Spot Freight Rate and Shipping Company Quotes - **46 - week Spot Freight Rate**: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market) [1]. - **Shipping Company Quotes for 48 - week**: MSK's opening quotes for the 48 - week were 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 points on the futures market; ONE reduced its price to 1900 US dollars for the 48 - week [1][3]. News and Geopolitical Factors - On November 12, the Houthi armed forces announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea but threatened to resume if Israel continued its aggression in Gaza [1]. - On November 11, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement, which was only a preliminary agreement, and the second - phase negotiation had not started yet [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continued to weaken in a volatile manner on Friday, with a neutral valuation for December. Considering the upcoming peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The market is expected to follow the December trend in the short term. If the peak season materializes, the valuation of the February contract is harder to determine, and it may have more upside potential. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile operation in the short - term within the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a strategy of selling on rallies is recommended. - For the recent European line quotes, the cargo booking for Week 45 was completed, and shipping companies could fill their ships. The cargo collection in Week 46 on the PA route improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure will increase in the second half of November, while the cargo volume may pick up. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: On November 10, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1812.0, 1592.0, 1164.6, 1376.1, 1499.2, and 1133.4 respectively, with changes of - 1.96%, - 0.56%, - 1.14%, - 2.69%, 1.02%, and - 0.58% compared to the previous day. Their open interest changed by - 2525, 314, 122, - 3, 5, and 32 respectively. [2] - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 647.4, 220.0, and 427.4 respectively on November 10, 2025. Compared to the previous day, they changed by - 22.8, - 27.2, and 4.4 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: As of November 3, 2025, the SCFIS was 1208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% from the previous period. As of November 7, 2025, the SCFI (European line) was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period; and the NCFI was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period. [2] News and Quotes - **Palestinian - Israeli Conflict News**: On November 9, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas stated that armed personnel in the Rafah area under Israeli control would not surrender to Israel. On November 10, the Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire in Gaza breaks down, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. [4] - **European Line Quotes**: In Week 45, the average landed price was about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market). In Week 46, it was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and it is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week. There may also be an announced price increase for December. [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on November 5, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Group 2: Futures Market Analysis Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1909.9 with a 3.14% increase, EC2602 at 1593.7 with a 0.09% increase, EC2604 at 1190.0 with a 0.47% increase, EC2606 at 1411.0 with a 0.75% increase, EC2608 at 1485.0 with a 0.10% increase, and EC2610 at 1135.0 with a 0.38% decrease [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504 spread was 719.9, up 52.6 from the previous day and 123.7 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 316.2, up 56.7 from the previous day and 112.8 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 spread was 403.7, down 4.1 from the previous day and up 10.9 week - on - week [2] Group 3: Spot Market Analysis Spot Indices - SCFI (European Line) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period; NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Quotes - In early November, PA's price dropped to $1700 - 1900, GEMIN to $2100 - 2200, and OA to $2250, with an average of about $2050 (equivalent to 1430 points on the disk) [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategies - The 12 - contract has multiple positive drivers but high valuation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - The 02 - contract's valuation is hard to anchor, and it is expected to follow the 12 - contract in the next month [3] - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract, and it is recommended to sell on rallies considering future supply pressure, off - season factors, and potential resumption of shipping [3] Group 5: News and Events - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement; on November 2, the Houthi armed forces said they would respond strongly to any Israeli aggression [5] - On November 4, the MSK price increase news and the price increase letters from HPL and MSC drove the main contract to strengthen significantly, and the far - month contracts were slightly driven up by the near - month contracts [2][3] - On November 5, MSC and HPL issued price increase letters for the second half of November, announcing price increases to $3000 and $3100 per FEU respectively [4]