SHFE黄金主力

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降息落地,金价高位波动加剧
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation pattern with an increasing amplitude. Before the release of the September FOMC meeting results, the gold price continued to decline as the early long - position holders had a strong willingness to close their positions. After the results were announced, the market briefly plunged and then stabilized. On Friday, the gold price stabilized and rebounded, and the New York gold price reached above $3,700 again [3][24]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time. The dot - plot showed that most officials expected another 50 - basis - point rate cut (i.e., possibly two more 25 - basis - point cuts) by the end of 2025, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell called this rate cut a "risk - management decision", indicating that the Fed prefers preventive measures to support the economy and employment when balancing the risks of economic slowdown, weak employment market, and inflation [3][24]. - In the short - term, the capital market showed a reverse trend after the good news was realized. The US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, the gold price rose and then fell, and the US stocks oscillated at a high level. The gold market had fully priced in three rate cuts within the year in early September with a significant increase, so the short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to close their positions. On Friday, the closing of long positions ended, and the gold price stabilized and rebounded. The medium - and long - term upward trend remained unchanged. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and the gold price, but specific trend descriptions are not provided in this part [7]. 1.2 Indicator Fluctuations - From September 12th to September 19th, COMEX gold rose by 1.05% from $3,680.70 to $3,719.40, COMEX silver rose by 1.60% from $42.68 to $43.37, SHFE gold主力 fell by 0.44% from 834.22 to 830.56, SHFE silver主力 fell by 0.64% from 10,035.00 to 9,971.00, the US dollar index rose by 0.04% from 97.62 to 97.65, the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell by 0.07% from 7.13 to 7.12, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield rose by 0.05 from 1.70 to 1.75, the S&P 500 rose by 1.22% from 6,584.29 to 6,664.36, and the US crude oil continuous rose by 0.19% from $62.60 to $62.72. The COMEX gold - silver ratio fell by 0.54% from 86.24 to 85.77, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose by 0.20% from 83.13 to 83.30. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 19.76 from 974.80 to 994.56, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 9.66 from 464.81 to 474.47 [8]. 2. Interest Rate Cut and High - Level Oscillation of Gold Price - After the Fed's FOMC meeting, the market showed a reverse trend after the good news was realized. The gold price fell from a high level as short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to close their positions. The US dollar index and the US Treasury yield bottomed out and rebounded, and the US stocks oscillated at a high level. On Friday, the gold price began to stabilize and rebound, and the New York gold price reached above $3,700 again. The short - term closing of long positions ended, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of the gold price remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [10]. - The US stock market as a whole did not react significantly to the Fed's rate cut. It only oscillated and adjusted at a high level before the rate cut and continued to oscillate upward after the rate cut [12]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 16th, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was 1,903 contracts, the short - position change was - 2,767 contracts, and the net long - position change was 4,670 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious - metal price trend than the gold ETF but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [14]. - Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. The gold price oscillated at a high level, the silver price was relatively strong, and the gold - silver ratio oscillated downward. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded significantly, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. As the Fed started to cut interest rates, the market's expectations for the US economy improved [16][19][20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion part reiterates the core viewpoints of the report, including the high - level oscillation of the gold price last week, the Fed's rate - cut situation, the short - term reverse trend in the capital market, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of the gold price remaining unchanged [24].