1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation due to the repeated geopolitical news and the risk of further escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, they are likely to gradually build a bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the supporting factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the huge US debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain solid. As factors like geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On March 31, 2026, London gold spot was at $4557.00 per ounce, London silver spot at $72.02 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4586.90 per ounce, COMEX silver at $72.20 per ounce, AU2606 at 1020.10 yuan per gram, AG2606 at 18126 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 1016.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 18052 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the price increases were 0.6%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 2.6%, 0.5%, 2.4%, 0.6%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 31, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.52 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 74 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.81 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 46 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.28, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.53, AU2608 - 2606 was 3.04 yuan per gram, and AG2608 - 2606 was - 12 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the changes were - 26.1%, 196.0%, 28.2%, - 2003.6%, - 1.8%, - 1.9%, 19.7%, and - 52.0% respectively [5] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: On March 30, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1046.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15288.3594 tons. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.33% and - 0.79% respectively [5] - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: As of March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 220861 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52534 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 168327 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 33938 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 9265 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24673 contracts. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 2.27%, - 6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On March 31, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory data was N/A, and the SHFE silver inventory data was N/A [5] - **COMEX Inventory**: On March 30, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 troy ounces. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.56% and - 0.22% respectively [5] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates**: On March 31, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, with a change of - 0.04% compared with March 30, 2026 [5] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market**: On March 30, 2026, the US dollar index was 100.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 30.61, the S&P 500 was 6343.72, and NYMEX crude oil was $105.01. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 0.33%, - 1.55%, - 2.03%, - 1.42%, - 0.39%, and 3.79% respectively [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On August 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.46% to 1020.1 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.41% to 18126 yuan per kilogram [5] - **Influence Analysis**: Fed Chairman Powell's statement eased short - term market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing the US dollar index and US bond yields to decline. The market trading logic shifted from inflation to stagflation, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, with the risk of further escalation, which may cause short - term suppression of precious metal prices [6] - **Future Market Analysis**: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the long term, they are likely to gradually build a bottom and return to the long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity [6]

- The report includes a quantitative timing model that generates signals for various financial instruments and indices, such as government bonds, stock indices, and commodities. The model uses original signals and a 5-day moving average (MA5) to determine market views like "bullish," "adjustment," or "neutral" [2][6][7] - The construction process of the model involves calculating original signals and MA5 values for each asset or index. For example, the original signal for the 30-year government bond is 86.06%, while its MA5 is 78.05%. These values are used to derive the model's view, which is "adjustment" in this case. Similar calculations are applied to other assets like the 2-year government bond (original signal: 8.02%, MA5: 14.70, view: "bullish") and COMEX gold (original signal: 39.61%, MA5: 42.29, view: "neutral") [2][6][7] - The model's evaluation is based on its ability to provide actionable market views for different financial instruments. It categorizes assets into "bullish," "adjustment," or "neutral" based on signal persistence and alignment with market trends. For example, the 2-year government bond has maintained a "bullish" signal for over 10 trading days, indicating strong consistency [2][6][7] - The backtesting results of the model include specific signal values for each asset or index. For instance: - 30-year government bond: Original signal 86.06%, MA5 78.05%, view "adjustment" [2][6] - 2-year government bond: Original signal 8.02%, MA5 14.70%, view "bullish" [2][6] - COMEX gold: Original signal 39.61%, MA5 42.29%, view "neutral" [2][7] - IPE crude oil: Original signal 46.07%, MA5 40.68%, view "neutral" [2][7] - Various stock indices like the CSI Red Dividend Total Return Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index also have their respective signal values and views [2][6][7]

- The report includes a quantitative model that provides timing signals for various financial instruments, such as government bonds, stock indices, and commodities. The model outputs probabilities representing the likelihood of short-term upward movements in yields or indices[3][7][8] - The model uses a moving average (MA5) to smooth the daily timing signals. For example, the original signal for the 30-year government bond is 82.96%, while its MA5 value is 74.29%. This approach helps identify trends and reduces noise in the data[3][7] - The model evaluates multiple instruments, including 2-year and 10-year government bonds, stock indices like the CSI All A Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, and commodities such as COMEX gold and IPE crude oil. Each instrument is assigned a viewpoint, such as "bullish," "adjustment," or "neutral," based on the signal probabilities and thresholds[3][7][8] - The thresholds for the model's viewpoints are defined as follows: probabilities above 60% indicate a bullish stance, below 40% suggest bearishness, and values in between are considered neutral[8] - The model's performance is tracked over a 10-day period, with daily updates on signal probabilities and viewpoints for each instrument. For example, the 2-year government bond has maintained a "bullish" viewpoint for over 10 days, while the CSI All A Index has been in "adjustment" for 3 days[3][7][8] - The report provides detailed signal probabilities and MA5 values for each instrument, such as the CSI All A Index (83.02% original signal, 64.68% MA5) and COMEX gold (57.89% original signal, 42.29% MA5)[3][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the impact of geopolitical conflicts, particularly the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, on global monetary policy and economic conditions, highlighting the challenges faced by central banks in balancing growth and inflation control [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma between employment and inflation risks, with internal divisions persisting regarding interest rate decisions [5]. - The Fed's recent meeting maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, indicating uncertainty about the economic impact of the Middle East situation [6]. - Fed Chair Powell signaled a hawkish stance, stating that rate cuts would not be considered until inflation shows further improvement [7]. Group 2: European Central Bank and Bank of England's Policy Shifts - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained key interest rates but acknowledged increased uncertainty in the eurozone economic outlook due to geopolitical tensions, leading to upward revisions in inflation forecasts [10][11]. - The Bank of England (BoE) has shifted its stance, removing previous indications of potential rate cuts and signaling readiness to act to keep inflation within target [12][13]. Group 3: Bank of Japan's Position - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its benchmark rate at 0.75%, with internal divisions on the need for rate hikes, as inflation risks are perceived to be rising due to global tensions [15][16]. - The BoJ's focus on the Middle East situation highlights its potential impact on Japan's economic outlook and inflation levels [16]. Group 4: Energy Prices and Economic Risks - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has led to significant volatility in energy markets, with predictions of Brent crude oil prices reaching $110 per barrel, reflecting a 62% increase from previous forecasts [19]. - The article warns of potential stagflation risks as high energy prices could suppress economic growth and complicate monetary policy responses from central banks [21]. Group 5: Asset Pricing and Market Reactions - Financial markets are currently pricing in inflation shocks while overlooking the adverse effects of high energy costs on economic growth [22]. - Since the conflict began, commodity prices have shown significant divergence, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 65% while gold prices have dropped by 15.2% [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant revaluation of global assets, shifting the market logic from "rate cut expectations" to "inflation and geopolitical risk" [5][37]. - The conflict has evolved through a chain reaction: conflict → supply shock → rising inflation → asset repricing, with energy supply becoming the primary variable affecting asset pricing [6][9]. - Brent crude oil prices surged from approximately $66 per barrel before the conflict to a peak of $109.78 per barrel, representing an increase of over 58%, indicating that the price rise is driven by supply constraints rather than demand [14][37]. Group 2 - Gold has underperformed during this conflict, with COMEX gold futures experiencing a maximum decline of over 18%, primarily due to a stronger US dollar and rising interest rate expectations, which have diminished gold's safe-haven appeal [19][20]. - The US dollar has strengthened due to safe-haven demand and expectations of delayed rate cuts, while the Chinese yuan has shown resilience, depreciating less than the dollar has appreciated [23][24]. - Global stock markets have exhibited a divergent pattern, with European and Japanese markets experiencing significant declines, while US stocks have remained relatively stable, reflecting varying degrees of dependence on energy imports [28][29]. Group 3 - Traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds have seen rising yields in the US and Germany, indicating a shift in market dynamics where inflation expectations and central bank policies are dominating over safe-haven demand [33][34]. - The current macro environment suggests that government bonds are no longer purely safe-haven instruments but are highly dependent on each country's inflation and policy cycles [34][37]. - Overall, the conflict has not only caused short-term market volatility but has also led to a fundamental shift in global asset pricing logic, with inflation assets like oil leading the market, while gold has become a significant cognitive bias asset [37][38].

- The report involves several quantitative models and factors, including the 30-year Treasury bond, 3-year AAA medium-term notes, 10-year Treasury bond, 2-year Treasury bond, Wind All A Index, CSI Dividend Total Return Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, STAR 50 Index, Wind Micro Index, and CNI 2000 Index[2][3][6] - The construction idea of these models is based on the original signal and the 5-day moving average (MA5) to generate model viewpoints such as "adjustment," "bullish," or "shock"[2][6] - The specific construction process involves calculating the original signal and the 5-day moving average (MA5) for each asset. For example, the original signal for the 30-year Treasury bond is 73.10%, and its MA5 is 73.46%. The model viewpoint is "adjustment" if the original signal is below the MA5 and "bullish" if it is above the MA5[2][6] - The evaluation of these models is qualitative, indicating whether the market is in a state of adjustment, bullish, or shock based on the comparison between the original signal and the MA5[2][6] - The specific test results for these models are as follows: - 30-year Treasury bond: original signal 73.10%, MA5 73.46%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 10 days[2][6] - 3-year AAA medium-term notes: original signal 73.81%, MA5 80.07%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 2 days[2][6] - 10-year Treasury bond: original signal 69.40%, MA5 74.91%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 7 days[2][6] - 2-year Treasury bond: original signal 17.95%, MA5 10.80%, model viewpoint "bullish," signal duration over 10 days[2][6] - Wind All A Index: original signal 64.74%, MA5 65.43%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 1 day[2][6] - CSI Dividend Total Return Index: original signal 76.94%, MA5 72.05%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 5 days[2][6] - Hang Seng Technology Index: original signal 79.89%, MA5 80.42%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 6 days[2][6] - STAR 50 Index: original signal 78.50%, MA5 78.98%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration over 10 days[2][6] - Wind Micro Index: original signal 66.86%, MA5 62.01%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 1 day[2][6] - CNI 2000 Index: original signal 76.44%, MA5 76.88%, model viewpoint "adjustment," signal duration 9 days[2][6] - COMEX Gold: original signal 31.26%, MA5 51.98%, model viewpoint "shock," signal duration 1 day[7] - IPE Brent Oil: original signal 57.93%, MA5 48.82%, model viewpoint "shock," signal duration 8 days[7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a significant decline on March 23, with spot gold dropping over 7% and spot silver falling over 9% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold fell to $4168.355 per ounce, down $323.315, representing a decrease of 7.20% [2] - Spot silver decreased to $61.555 per ounce, down $6.342, reflecting a decline of 9.34% [2] - Spot platinum dropped over 7% to $1780 per ounce, down $145.80, which is a 7.57% decrease [3] - Spot palladium fell over 3% to $1356.09 per ounce, down $52.45, indicating a 3.72% decline [3] Group 2: Futures Market - COMEX gold prices decreased to $4253.4, down $321.5, which is a 7.03% drop [2] - COMEX silver prices fell to $62.215, down $7.449, representing a decline of 10.69% [2] - NYMEX platinum prices dropped to $1749.5, down $221.0, indicating an 11.22% decrease [3] - NYMEX palladium prices fell to $1343.50, down $101.70, reflecting a 7.04% decline [3]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping nearly 2000 points, a decrease of over 3% [2] - The KOSPI index in South Korea fell by 5%, triggering a market circuit breaker that paused trading for 5 minutes [4] Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell below $4430 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 3%, while silver prices dropped nearly 1% [5] Economic Insights - Citic Securities noted that key issues regarding the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts will gradually be resolved by April, with the market currently in a narrative-driven phase reflecting liquidity tightening [7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 3.97% at the end of February to 4.39%, the highest level since August of the previous year [7] Investment Strategy - The focus should remain on sectors where China has a competitive advantage in pricing power, particularly in new energy, chemicals, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals [8] - The recent liquidity shock has brought valuations of several sectors back to attractive levels, similar to the post-April 7, 2022, scenario for overseas products [8] - Key areas for investment include low-valuation factors, particularly in insurance, brokerage, and electric power sectors, with price increases expected to be a significant theme in 2024 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the hawkish stance of global central banks on market dynamics, leading to a risk-off sentiment and tightening liquidity conditions, which have resulted in a significant decline in various asset classes, including equities and traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market trends have shown a phenomenon where rising oil prices have led to a decline in both traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the critical 4000-point mark [2][3]. - The ICE Brent crude oil price surged over 40% since March, reaching as high as $119 per barrel, while the COMEX gold price experienced a weekly drop of over 10%, marking the longest consecutive decline since October 2023 [2][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The combination of geopolitical conflicts, particularly the military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, has increased global uncertainty, affecting oil prices and inflation expectations significantly [3][4]. - A synchronized hawkish shift among major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, has contributed to tightening liquidity conditions, which is a key factor behind the widespread asset price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Stagflation Risks - High oil prices are expected to elevate overall inflation levels, with estimates suggesting that a $10 increase in oil prices could raise global inflation rates by 40 basis points, while also potentially reducing global output by 0.1% to 0.2% [4][5]. - Concerns about stagflation are rising, as central banks maintain tight monetary policies to combat inflation, which could hinder economic growth [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios in response to tightening liquidity and stagflation risks, focusing on high-quality cash flow and high return on equity (ROE) assets while avoiding high-volatility sectors like electric vehicles and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7]. - There is a recommendation to adopt a strategy that emphasizes individual stock selection over index reliance, particularly in sectors that are expected to benefit from price increases, such as upstream resources [6][7]. Group 5: Asset Class Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term value of traditional safe-haven assets like bonds and gold remains intact, with expectations of continued demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks and currency credit risks [8]. - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations that the impact of rising oil prices on inflation will be limited, allowing for a stable low-inflation environment [8].