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大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程A股领涨全球权益,股债负相关性达高位-20250825
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-08-25 11:44
资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 A股领涨全球权益,股债负相关性达高位 ——大类资产周报(20250818-20250822) 分析师:朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱:zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年8月25日 分析师:汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱:tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 联系人:黄雯瑜 邮箱:huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周宏观增长因子继续向上,通胀高频因子反弹态势减弱,价格压力仍然较高。A股领涨全球(上证+3.49%、创业板+5.85%), 科技成长主导,50ETF隐含波动率(IV)上升至19.78%,美股分化,道指创新高(+1.53%)而纳指回调(-0.58%),鲍威尔降息 预期提振风险偏好,国内债市调整显著(30年期国债期货跌1.43%),股债负相关性达历史高位,"跷跷板效应"凸显,外盘商品 强势(布油+2.14%、COMEX黄金+1.02%)受地缘风险与通胀对冲驱动,内盘商品普跌(南华商品指数-0.44%);美元趋弱(美 元指 ...
国内贵金属期货涨跌不一 沪银涨幅为0.45%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-22 07:08
Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 22, with Shanghai gold futures at 773.12 CNY per gram, down 0.39%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9200.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.45% [1] - International precious metals futures were all in the red, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.40 CNY per ounce, down 0.42%, and COMEX silver at 37.97 USD per ounce, down 0.35% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 776.00 CNY per gram and 9187.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 777.22 CNY and 9254.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - As of the week ending August 16, initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [3] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75% [3] - Market expectations suggest that cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points have a probability of 51.5% by October, with a 35.3% chance for a cumulative cut of 50 basis points [3] Group 3 - On August 21, COMEX gold prices fell by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY per gram [4] - The ongoing tariff policies and rising inflation pressures are expected to persist, influencing market sentiment regarding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Attention is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, which may impact rate cut expectations for the year [4]
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数下跌,黑色系领跌-20250821
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 00:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].
银行、科技双双跳水,黄金四连跌,中概股延续弱势
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-20 03:57
Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance but continued to exhibit weakness, with the Dow Jones slightly up by 0.02%, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.46% and the S&P 500 declined by 0.59% [1] Banking Sector - Bank stocks collectively retreated, with Goldman Sachs dropping by 1.31%. Other banks such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Zions Bancorporation also saw slight declines, while Bank of America rose by 0.33% [3] Technology Sector - Technology stocks experienced a significant drop, with AMD falling by 5.44%, Nvidia down by 3.5%, Netflix decreasing by 2.48%, and META down by 2.07%. Other tech stocks like Qualcomm and Amazon also saw declines of over 1%. In contrast, Intel surged by 6.97% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks opened high but trended downward throughout the day, with the China Golden Dragon Index down by 0.9%. Notable declines included iQIYI down by 2.15%, and other companies like Bilibili, NetEase, Baidu, JD.com, and Alibaba all fell by over 1%. However, Xpeng Motors and NIO saw gains of 4.22% and 4.11%, respectively [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold opened high but closed down by 0.57% at $3358.9 per ounce. The intraday low was $3358.1 per ounce, while the high reached $3389.7 per ounce [3]
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌参半,新能源材料涨幅居前-20250819
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 13:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].
海外高频 | 美俄谈判未达协议,美国7月核心商品CPI低预期(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-08-18 16:03
文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 7月,美国经济好于预期,叠加超预期的二季报,上半年全球资金"再平衡"趋势一度逆转,再度向美国回 流。"再平衡"反转的持续性、后续国内外关注的焦点?本文分析,供参考。 发达市场悉数上涨,玻璃价格大幅反弹。 当周,标普500上涨0.9%,日经225上涨3.7%;10Y美债收益率 上行6.0bp至4.3%;美元指数下跌0.4%至97.85,离岸人民币升值至7.1891;WTI原油下跌1.7%至62.8美元/ 桶,COMEX黄金下跌2.0%至3336.2美元/盎司。 美俄谈判未达成协议,特朗普称暂不征收俄油二级关税。 8月15日,美俄两国元首在阿拉斯加举行会 谈,双方未就俄乌冲突未达成停火协议,泽连斯基或将于8月18日当周在华盛顿会见特朗普。特朗普8月 15日称短期内不会因购买俄油而对中国等国家实施二级关税。 美国7月核心商品CPI弱于预期,关注下周杰克逊霍尔年会。 美国7月核心CPI环比0.3%,符合市场预期, 但与关税相关的商品部分表现较弱,推升联储9月降息概率;7月美国PPI表现强于预期,环比0.9%;7月 美国零售销售略弱于预期,环比0.5 ...
金属周报 | 降息预期反复,金铜震荡困局何时破?
对冲研投· 2025-08-18 12:13
Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices experienced a decline while copper prices remained volatile, with COMEX gold down 2.21% and COMEX copper up 0.09% [4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices saw slight declines, with COMEX gold down 2.0% and COMEX silver down 1.3% [22][23]. - The recent clarification on gold tariffs by Trump alleviated previous risks, but the release of CPI and PPI data led to fluctuating expectations for a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on precious metal prices [6][22]. - The medium to long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to ongoing concerns about U.S. sovereign credit risk, suggesting potential for further price increases [6][50]. Group 2: Base Metals Market - Copper prices are currently lacking a clear trend, with SHFE copper prices fluctuating around 79,000 yuan per ton [8][49]. - Despite signs of weakening economic data in July, there is still strong policy support aimed at combating deflation, which may provide a buffer against significant price declines for copper [8][49]. - The copper concentrate TC index rose to -37.93 USD/ton, indicating a slight recovery in the spot market, although long-term supply-demand dynamics remain unchanged [12][20]. Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 50,000 ounces to 3,864 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 1.06 million ounces to 50,755 million ounces [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5.7 tons to 965 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 81 tons to 15,071 tons [39][40]. - The positioning data indicates a decrease in non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [39][40].
海外高频 | 美俄谈判未达协议,美国7月核心商品CPI低预期(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-17 23:34
Group 1 - The article discusses the better-than-expected performance of the US economy in July, which, along with stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, led to a reversal in the global capital "rebalancing" trend, with funds flowing back to the US [2] - Developed market indices saw an overall increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.7% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% [4][5] - The article highlights the significant rebound in glass prices, which increased by 13.9% [50] Group 2 - The article notes that the US core CPI for July was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, but the performance of goods related to tariffs was notably weak [70][74] - The article mentions that the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, driven by the weaker-than-expected CPI data [70] Group 3 - The article reports that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.3%, while yields in other developed countries also saw increases [22] - Emerging market 10-year Treasury yields showed mixed results, with Turkey's yield rising by 205.5 basis points to 31.2% [27] Group 4 - The article indicates that the US dollar index fell by 0.4% to 97.85, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1891 against the dollar [33][43] - It also notes that commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 1.7% to $62.8 per barrel [48]
银行、科技企稳反转,中概股大跳水
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 18:17
Market Overview - The market experienced a weak rebound after a dip, with the Dow Jones down 0.02%, Nasdaq down 0.01%, and S&P 500 up 0.03% [1] - Bank stocks showed signs of stabilization and reversal, while technology stocks continued to exhibit mixed performance [1] Banking Sector - Major banks like JPMorgan Chase rose by 1.25%, while Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Zions Bancorporation also saw slight gains [3] - Some banks, including United Bank and Alliance West Bank, experienced minor declines [3] Technology Sector - Intel surged by 7.38%, with Amazon up 2.86% and Netflix up 2.17% [3] - Other tech stocks like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Google, and Microsoft had slight increases, while Advanced Micro Devices fell by 1.88% and Tesla dropped by 1.12% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese stocks opened lower and remained weak throughout the day, with the China Golden Dragon index down 2.13% [3] - Notable declines included Li Auto down 4.62%, and other companies like Xpeng Motors, NIO, Alibaba, and NetEase all fell over 3% [3] - Tencent, JD.com, Baidu, and Bilibili also saw declines exceeding 2% [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold opened higher but closed down 0.72% at $3382.3 per ounce, with intraday fluctuations between a low of $3375.5 and a high of $3407.2 [3]
特鲍博弈白热化 金银蓄势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the mild increase in U.S. inflation for July has preserved the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, impacting the dollar and supporting precious metal prices [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1% [3]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to 93.4%, which is expected to weaken the dollar's attractiveness and support precious metal prices [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut rates and threatened legal action, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocates for a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - There are mixed views among officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and unemployment balance, which may create policy uncertainty [3]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile pattern in the short term, with COMEX gold likely to find support around $3,350 and trade near $3,400 [4]. - COMEX silver should be monitored for support at the $37 level, with potential opportunities remaining in the context of ongoing rate cut expectations [4].